A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.
In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\it day-ahead} and {\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices and the distributions of prediction errors for the electricity demand traded in tw…
A non-Euclidean generalization of conditional expectation is introduced and characterized as the minimizer of expected intrinsic squared-distance from a manifold-valued target. The computational tractable formulation expresses the non-convex optimization problem as transformations of Euclidean conditional expectation. …
Financial institutions have to allocate so-called "economic capital" in order to guarantee solvency to their clients and counter parties. Mathematically speaking, any methodology of allocating capital is a "risk measure", i.e. a function mapping random variables to the real numbers. Nowadays "value-at-risk", which is d…
A new tail-shape index based on Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall.
Sublinear functionals of random variables are known as sublinear expectations; they are convex homogeneous functionals on infinite-dimensional linear spaces. We extend this concept for set-valued functionals defined on measurable set-valued functions (which form a nonlinear space), equivalently, on random closed sets. …
Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to continuous loss distributions. Differences may appear when the underlying loss di…
We compute the expected value of the Kullback-Leibler divergence to various fundamental statistical models with respect to canonical priors on the probability simplex. We obtain closed formulas for the expected model approximation errors, depending on the dimension of the models and the cardinalities of their sample sp…
Investigates a new measure PELVE_n for risk assessment.
Framework for optimizing search engine rankings using observational data.
Study improves accuracy of risk measures using advanced algorithms.
Study shows equivalence of four risk constraints in non-concave optimization problems.
The paper uses regression trees/random forests to price Bermudan options more efficiently.
We study U(N|M) character expectation value with the supermatrix Chern-Simons theory, known as the ABJM matrix model, with emphasis on its connection to the knot invariant. This average just gives the half BPS circular Wilson loop expectation value in ABJM theory, which shall correspond to the unknot invariant. We deri…
Introduces Lambda Expected Shortfall as a risk measure generalizing ES.
Expectile bears some interesting properties in comparison to the industry wide expected shortfall in terms of assessment of tail risk. We study the relationship between expectile and expected shortfall using duality results and the link to optimized certainty equivalent. Lower and upper bounds of expectile are derived …
This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed in finitely many steps. The methods are illustrated by numerical examples.
Standardizes weighted ranking correlation coefficients to maintain zero expected value.
Efficiently predicts long-time dynamics of quantum spin models using MLP regression.
Credit Suisse First Boston (CSFB) launched in 1997 the model CreditRisk+ which aims at calculating the loss distribution of a credit portfolio on the basis of a methodology from actuarial mathematics. Knowing the loss distribution, it is possible to determine quantile-based values-at-risk (VaRs) for the portfolio. An o…
Optimizes target value in stochastic black box functions.
In this paper, we generalize the parametric delta-VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the expected shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such portfolios. Special attention is given to the particular case of a multivariate t-distr…
Quantum algorithms improve calculation of parameter sensitivities in financial derivatives.
For a linear combination of random variables, fix some confidence level and consider the quantile of the combination at this level. We are interested in the partial derivatives of the quantile with respect to the weights of the random variables in the combination. It turns out that under suitable conditions on the join…
In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the recent result of Fissler and Ziegel (2015) that ES is jointly elicitable with Valu…
In this paper, we use replica analysis to determine the investment strategy that can maximize the net present value for portfolios containing multiple development projects. Replica analysis was developed in statistical mechanical informatics and econophysics to evaluate disordered systems, and here we use it to formula…
This paper presents a new approach, called perturb-max, for high-dimensional statistical inference that is based on applying random perturbations followed by optimization. This framework injects randomness to maximum a-posteriori (MAP) predictors by randomly perturbing the potential function for the input. A classic re…
Gambles are random variables that model possible changes in monetary wealth. Classic decision theory transforms money into utility through a utility function and defines the value of a gamble as the expectation value of utility changes. Utility functions aim to capture individual psychological characteristics, but thei…
Estimation of tail quantities, such as expected shortfall or Value at Risk, is a difficult problem. We show how the theory of nonlinear expectations, in particular the Data-robust expectation introduced in [5], can assist in the quantification of statistical uncertainty for these problems. However, when we are in a hea…
Paper introduces a new project control method using Monte Carlo and statistical learning.
Paper proposes a new method to evaluate joint risk under uncertainty.
New methods for estimating conditional Shapley values compared and evaluated.
The paper introduces SuccessProbaMax to optimize policy success probability in online advertising.
The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible,…
The paper calculates the value of information in high-dimensional decision making.
This research simplifies computation of feature attribution methods under certain conditions.
Optimal transport framework for density estimation with constraints.
Submodularity is studied for convex risk measures, including Expected Shortfall.
This study presents a long-term alternative formula for stock price variation described by a geometric Brownian motion on the basis of median instead of mean or expected values. The proposed method is motivated by the observation made in remote fields, where optimality of bet-hedging or diversification strategies is ex…
It is well known that Expected Shortfall (also called Average Value-at-Risk) is a convex risk measure, i. e. Expected Shortfall of a convex linear combination of arbitrary risk positions is not greater than a convex linear combination with the same weights of Expected Shortfalls of the same risk positions. In this shor…
Paper improves VaR risk allocation by avoiding zero probability events.
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
Paper proposes using tree-based surrogate models for efficient Shapley computation.
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to the Value at Risk assuming a heavy tail distribution of the stock prices return. We use Markov Decision Process and dynamic programming principle to get…
The paper explores optimal insurance contracts using various deviation measures.
We consider a random link, which is defined as the closure of a braid obtained from a random walk on the braid group. For such a random link, the expected value for the number of components was calculated by Jiming Ma. In this paper, we determine the most expected number of components for a random link, and further, co…
Many problems in financial engineering involve the estimation of unknown conditional expectations across a time interval. Often Least Squares Monte Carlo techniques are used for the estimation. One method that can be combined with Least Squares Monte Carlo is the "Regress-Later" method. Unlike conventional methods wher…
Suppose you have one unit of stock, currently worth 1, which you must sell before time . The Optional Sampling Theorem tells us that whatever stopping time we choose to sell, the expected discounted value we get when we sell will be 1. Suppose however that we are able to see units of time into the future, and ba…