The paper revisits expected signatures in semimartingale models, providing new formulae and simplifying complexity.
problem Computing expected signatures in semimartingale models.
method Revisits and provides new formulae for computing expected signatures in a general semimartingale setting.
result Log-transform of expected signatures simplifies complexity, leading to signature cumulants.
Expected signatures map data streams to lower dimensions, improving ML performance.
problem Leveraging model-free embeddings for domain-agnostic machine learning.
method Expected signatures map data streams to lower dimensions, with convergence results bridging empirical and theoretical estimators.
result A modified expected signature estimator with lower mean squared error for martingale processes.
Kernel for Lévy rough paths derived from PDE system.
problem Computing similarity measures for Lévy rough paths.
method Developed a PDE system for the expected signature of inhomogeneous Lévy processes.
result Gaussian martingales' expected signature kernel satisfies a Goursat PDE.
Path signatures improve hedging of exotic derivatives in non-Markovian models.
problem Hedging exotic derivatives under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models.
method Investigates path signatures in deep and shallow learning contexts, comparing neural networks and regression approaches.
result Path signatures outperform LSTM in most cases and yield more accurate results in hedging.
This paper develops a path-first theory using signatures and jump lifts for self-exiting processes.
problem Developing a universal coordinate system for various types of paths and processes.
method Using signatures, jump lifts, and expected signatures, the paper presents a geometricity framework with algebraic properties and obstructions.
result The framework links various mathematical concepts and offers four main contributions to understanding and modeling self-exiting processes.
We estimate prices of exotic options in a discrete-time model-free setting when the trader has access to market prices of a rich enough class of exotic and vanilla options. This is achieved by estimating an unobservable quantity called "implied expected signature" from such market prices, which are used to price other …
Introduces flat discrete signatures for financial data analysis.
problem Representing financial data for machine learning without continuous transformation.
method Introduced flat discrete signatures and discrete signatures, generalizing flat discrete signatures.
result Flat discrete signatures can represent quadratic variation relevant in finance.
Witt spaces are pseudomanifolds for which the middle-perversity intersection homology with rational coefficients is self-dual. We give a new construction of the symmetric signature for Witt spaces which is similar in spirit to the construction given by Miscenko for manifolds. Our construction has all of the expected pr…
We introduce a new method to measure model risk using optimal transport on path signatures.
problem Measuring model risk in financial and insurance models.
method Signature-induced optimal transport framework.
result Explicit robust bounds and a budget-aware sparse surrogate method.
Framework uses optimal transport to quantify model risk in stochastic path laws.
problem Model risk in stochastic path laws.
method Signature-induced optimal transport framework.
result Explicit robust bounds and budget-aware sparse surrogate method.
Average signature of 2-bridge knots approximates sqrt(2c/π).
problem Estimating the average signature and 4-genus of 2-bridge knots.
method Developed a model for 2-bridge knot diagrams indexed by crossing number, and used it to derive upper bounds for the average 4-genus.
result Upper bound for the average 4-genus of a 2-bridge knot is 9.75c/log c.
New method solves optimal stopping problems using rough path signatures.
problem Optimal stopping problems in finance and other fields.
method Using rough path signatures and deep neural networks.
result Solves optimal stopping problems efficiently under minimal assumptions.
A recent line of work has uncovered a new form of data poisoning: so-called \emph{backdoor} attacks. These attacks are particularly dangerous because they do not affect a network's behavior on typical, benign data. Rather, the network only deviates from its expected output when triggered by a perturbation planted by an…
Scalable machine learning with path signatures for time series and graphs.
problem Challenges in real-world time series and graph data.
method Combines rough path theory with probabilistic, deep, and kernel methods.
result Scalable models for time series and graph data.
Generative model for TPPs using signatures and distributional discrepancies.
problem Limitations of signature methods for TPPs and lack of global sequence-level loss in neural models.
method Introduce interarrival embedding to lift jump paths to continuous paths of bounded variation, enabling signature methods for discrete event sequences. Develop sigTPP, a signature-based generative model trained on path-level loss.
result sigTPP achieves the best average rank across multiple metrics and outperforms or is within a standard error of the strongest baseline in 64% of dataset-metric pairs.
The paper develops methods for novelty detection on path space using signature-based statistics.
problem Novelty detection on path space as a hypothesis testing problem.
method Signature-based test statistics, transportation-cost inequalities, CVaR, one-class SVM algorithms.
result Established lower bounds on type-II error and general power bounds. Signature portfolios approximate optimal wealth in non-Markovian markets.
problem Approximating optimal wealth in non-Markovian markets.
method Linear path-functional portfolios based on signatures of market weights.
result Signature portfolios can uniformly approximate any continuous portfolio function.
New SDEs from affine and polynomial perspectives for path-dependent processes.
problem Characterizing path-dependent stochastic processes.
method Affine and polynomial processes, signature SDEs, Fourier-Laplace transform, Riccati and linear ODEs.
result Explicit formulas for the Fourier-Laplace transform and expected values of entire functions of signature processes.
Offline Signature Verification (OSV) is a challenging pattern recognition task, especially when it is expected to generalize well on the skilled forgeries that are not available during the training. Its challenges also include small training sample and large intra-class variations. Considering the limitations, we sugge…
New SigSwap model for path-dependent financial risk.
problem Managing complex, path-dependent financial risks.
method Geometry-based approach using path-signature and Signature Expected Shortfall.
result Path-dependent risks can be converted into transparent risk factors.
Develops new techniques for learning from sequential data groups.
problem Learning from groups of inputs rather than individual inputs.
method Introduces feature-based and kernel-based learning techniques for sequential data.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on various real-world examples.
Study identifies numerical signs of blow-up in hydrodynamic equations.
problem Determining if numerical results of blow-up are genuine or artifacts.
method Geometrically consistent spatiotemporal discretization of complexified Euler equations.
result Identification of a signature based on supremum norm growth rates of vorticity.
We have analyzed the risks of possible development of bubbles in the Swiss residential real estate market. The data employed in this work has been collected by comparis.ch, and carefully cleaned from duplicate records through a procedure based on supervised machine learning methods. The study uses the log periodic powe…
Proposes Sig-Wasserstein GANs for generating time series with temporal dependence.
problem Challenges in generating time series with temporal dependence and high-dimensional data.
method Integrates Wasserstein-GANs with signature feature extraction for conditional time series generation.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks in similarity and predictive ability.
Defines knot signature invariant using G-signature theorem.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on knot theory.
method Uses G-signature theorem to define knot invariant.
result Defines an invariant for strongly invertible knots.
Deep signature/log-signature FBSDE algorithm improves accuracy and training time.
problem Solving FBSDEs with state and path dependent features.
method Incorporates deep signature/log-signature transformation into RNN model.
result Improves accuracy and training time compared to existing methods.
A well-known property of the signature of closed oriented 4n-dimensional manifolds is Novikov additivity, which states that if a manifold is split into two manifolds with boundary along an oriented smooth hypersurface, then the signature of the original manifold equals the sum of the signatures of the resulting manifol…
Maximum Levine-Tristram signature of torus knots follows a reduction formula.
problem Determining the maximum Levine-Tristram signature for torus knots.
method Proved a reduction formula analogous to Gordon-Litherland-Murasugi's classical signature result.
result Maximum Levine-Tristram signature of torus knots satisfies a reduction formula.
New findings on mesh group-planes validate Signature-inverse Theorem under specific conditions.
problem Invalidity of existing inverse theorems for mesh group-planes.
method Classification of three and five point meshes, analysis of joint invariant signatures.
result Valid conditions for the Signature-inverse Theorem in mesh group-planes.
This is a sequel to the paper "The signature package on Witt spaces, I. Index classes" by the same authors. In the first part we investigated, via a parametrix construction, the regularity properties of the signature operator on a stratified Witt pseudomanifold, proving, in particular, that one can define a K-homology …
We define the Analytical signature, the Hodge signature and the de Rham signature for a foliated manifold with boundary with foliation transverse to the boundary. We show that all these signatures coincide and a Hirzebruch formula is valid.
New methods price American options in rough volatility models.
problem Pricing American options under rough volatility.
method Integrating deep-signature and signature-kernel learning into optimal stopping problem solutions.
result Performance comparison in rough Heston and rough Bergomi models.
The paper examines the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data.
problem Consistency of Lasso regression in signature analysis of time series data.
method The paper studies the consistency of Lasso regression applied to signature analysis of time series data, both theoretically and numerically.
result The Lasso regression is consistent both asymptotically and in finite sample for certain types of time series and processes.
Study signatures of torus links and their cores using Neumann's equivariant signatures and Hirzebruch's formula.
problem Computing signatures of torus links and their cores.
method Use Neumann's equivariant signatures and rewrite Hirzebruch's formula for torus links (without cores) in terms of integral points in a parallelogram.
result Rewritten Hirzebruch's formula for torus links with cores using integral points in a parallelogram.
This paper extends the C*-signature to non-Witt spaces using noncommutative geometric methods.
problem Extending the signature to non-Witt spaces with noncommutative geometric methods.
method Noncommutative geometric methods, combinatorial framework, and comparison with analytical signature.
result Constructing the C*-signature on non-Witt spaces.
Paper generalizes path signature using fractional calculus for improved machine learning.
problem Improving path signature for machine learning applications.
method Introduces two new signatures inspired by fractional calculus and machine learning considerations.
result Significant accuracy improvements in handwritten digit recognition.
We present a novel method for extracting cancer signatures by applying statistical risk models (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2732453) from quantitative finance to cancer genome data. Using 1389 whole genome sequenced samples from 14 cancers, we identify an "overall" mode of somatic mutational noise. We give a prescription …
pySigLib speeds up signature-based computations on CPUs and GPUs.
problem Efficient signature-based computations on large datasets and long sequences.
method Optimised Python library for CPU and GPU, novel differentiation scheme.
result Accurate gradients at a fraction of the runtime of existing libraries.
Efficiently computes sparse signature coefficients using kernels.
problem Lack of efficient methods for sparse signature coefficients.
method Signature kernels and PDE-based methods.
result Sparse groups of signature coefficients can be isolated effectively.
New method calculates signatures of biquotients.
problem Signature calculation for homogeneous spaces.
method Generalization of Hirzebruch's computation to biquotients.
result Signature of biquotients computed for equal rank cases.
Paper introduces branched signature model for efficient computation and data-driven applications.
problem Efficient computation and data-driven modeling of branched rough paths.
method Develops a universal approximation theorem and constructs an extension map to realize branched signatures.
result Explicit construction of branched signatures via an extension map for efficient computation.
Link signature limit depends on linking matrix under specific polynomial condition.
problem Limits of Tristam-Levine signature function under precise polynomial conditions.
method Analysis of Alexander polynomial and linking matrix.
result Limit of Tristam-Levine signature at 1 determined by linking matrix under specific polynomial condition.
Develops a new family of signature-changing models on metric manifolds.
problem Signature changes in metric manifolds.
method One-parameter family of Lorentz-Riemann models, local expressions around change.
result Generalizes existing signature-changing models.
We prove that the signature of an even, symmetric form on a finite rank integral lattice, has signature divisible by 8, provided its associated linking form vanishes in the Witt group of linking forms. Our result generalizes the well know fact that an even, unimodular form has signature divisible by 8. We give applicat…
Paper confirms Kashaev's signature conjecture for links.
problem Proving Kashaev's conjecture about link invariants.
method Using Seifert surface definition and diagrammatic approach.
result Established Kashaev's conjecture, providing a new formula for Alexander polynomial.
The paper defines signatures for Witt spaces with boundary and proves their equality.
problem Defining and proving signatures for Witt spaces with boundary.
method Introducing de Rham and Hodge signatures, extending index theory, and using von Neumann algebras.
result Equality of de Rham and Hodge signatures on Witt spaces with boundary.
Study finds infinitely many surface bundle types with zero signature.
problem Characterizing homeomorphism types of surface bundles with specific signatures.
method Analyzing atoroidal surface bundles over surfaces.
result Infinitely many homeomorphism types of atoroidal surface bundles over surfaces with signature zero.
In this note, we lay the groundwork for a new approach to the problem of group-signature classification of group actions on closed Riemann surfaces. This new approach first focuses on analyzing the low level arithmetic conditions on signatures before invoking the more complicated group theory. We provide the complete f…