We analyze annual revenues and earnings data for the 500 largest-revenue U.S. companies during the period 1954-2007. We find that mean year profits are proportional to mean year revenues, exception made for few anomalous years, from which we postulate a linear relation between company expected mean profit and revenue. …
We analyze the relation between earning forecast accuracy and expected profitability of financial analysts. Modeling forecast errors with a multivariate Gaussian distribution, a complete characterization of the payoff of each analyst is provided. In particular, closed-form expressions for the probability density functi…
Extends expected value framework for cost-sensitive causal decision-making.
problem Optimizing operational decision-making with cost-sensitive causal classification.
method Introduces a cost-sensitive decision boundary based on estimated individual treatment effects, positive outcome probability, and cost parameters.
result Effective in maximizing expected causal profit, outperforming cost-insensitive ranking approach.
This paper examines if CTE risk measure aligns with profit-maximizing risk capital allocations.
problem Whether CTE risk measure aligns with profit-maximizing risk capital allocations.
method Exhaustive probabilistic model settings analysis.
result CTE risk measure may align with profit-maximizing risk capital allocations under certain conditions.
Kyle (1985) builds a pioneering and influential model, in which an insider with long-lived private information submits an optimal order in each period given the market maker's pricing rule. An inconsistency exists to some extent in the sense that the ``constant pricing rule " actually assumes an adaptive expected price…
Novel trading strategy for generalized lattice markets ensures positive profits.
problem Trading in markets with serially correlated returns and asset correlation.
method Multi-double linear policies in a generalized lattice market model.
result Proposed policies ensure positive expected profits in a lattice market.
This paper compares forecasting techniques for sales data, focusing on profit-driven models.
problem Choosing the best forecasting technique for sales data is challenging.
method Compares various forecasting methods including ML, statistics, and econometrics.
result Simple seasonal models consistently outperform other methodologies.
We consider a finite horizon optimal stopping problem related to trade-off strategies between expected profit and cost cash-flows of an investment under uncertainty. The optimal problem is first formulated in terms of a system of Snell envelopes for the profit and cost yields which act as obstacles to each other. We th…
The paper defines fair profit sharing ratios in Islamic PL contracts.
problem Determining fair profit sharing ratios in Islamic PL contracts.
method Introduces c-fair profit sharing ratios and uses econometrics models to compute or approximate them. result Elucidates the relation between profit sharing ratios and economic factors.
New method optimizes resource allocation for uncertain tasks.
problem Optimal resource allocation for uncertain tasks with limited capacity.
method Formulated as an assignment problem, optimized using learning to rank with net discounted cumulative gain.
result Achieves higher expected profit and precision compared to classification methods.
The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the …
This paper monetizes customer load data to boost energy retailer profits.
problem Improving load forecasts to reduce energy imbalance costs.
method Cooperative game theory approach to quantify and distribute profits.
result Retailer gains significant profit from customer load data.
Study examines downsizing impact on Indian construction firms' profitability.
problem Impact of downsizing layoffs on construction firms' profitability in India.
method Used Co-integration test, OLS, and VAR models on secondary data of 15 companies.
result Employee Expenses and Number of Employees have significant impact on profitability.
Modeling fees impacts on arbitrage profits and LP losses in AMMs.
problem Impact of trading fees on arbitrage profits and LP losses in AMMs.
method Extended model of AMMs with fees and Poisson block generation times, computed instantaneous rate of arbitrage profit.
result Fees scale down arbitrage profits, reducing LP losses with faster block rates and lower gas fees.
This paper offers a mathematical framework to manage inventory risk in FX cash markets.
problem Inventory risk in FX cash markets due to flow uncertainty and volatility.
method Mathematical framework and approximation techniques for scalability.
result Maximizing expected profit while controlling inventory risk.
Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are bu…
This paper analyzes the profitability of selfish mining on blockchain, considering the risk of ruin.
problem The profitability of selfish mining on blockchain, considering the risk of ruin.
method Formulated a stochastic model and used tools from applied probability and analysis to determine expected profit.
result Explicit expressions for expected profit under different scenarios were derived, identifying conditions for selfish mining as a strategic advantage.
Toehold purchase, defined here as purchase of one share in a firm by an investor preparing a tender offer to acquire majority of shares in it, reduces by one the number of shares this investor needs for majority. In the paper we construct mathematical models for the toehold and no-toehold strategies and compare the exp…
Winterization of Texas power system profitable but risky, estimated at $11.74bn over 30 years.
problem Profitability and risk of winterizing Texas power system infrastructure.
method Combined temperature-dependent load and outage estimates over 71 years of climate data.
result Large-scale winterization of gas infrastructure and power plants is profitable, but risks are high due to low-frequency of cold spells.
In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl…
Study shows AMM liquidity providers lose more than they earn, with varying profitability across pairs.
problem Arbitrage losses by liquidity providers on AMMs exceed fees earned.
method Empirical study of losses and profitability across different AMM pools and block times.
result Uniswap v2 pools are more profitable for passive LPs than Uniswap v3.
Unified approach to trend-following systems, deriving exact relationships and expected returns.
problem Designing and understanding trend-following systems in financial markets.
method Derive exact relationships, analyze expected returns, and use fractional ARFIMA processes.
result Profitability of trend-following systems depends on positive long-term autocorrelation and excess spectral mass at low frequencies.
The continuous-time version of Kyle's (1985) model is studied, in which market makers are not fiduciaries. They have some market power which they utilize to set the price to their advantage, resulting in positive expected profits. This has several implications for the equilibrium, the most important being that by setti…
In this paper we propose and solve an optimal dividend problem with capital injections over a finite time horizon. The surplus dynamics obeys a linearly controlled drifted Brownian motion that is reflected at the origin, dividends give rise to time-dependent instantaneous marginal profits, whereas capital injections ar…
Study on energy storage's impact on electricity prices and profitability.
problem Analyzing the profitability of energy storage in electricity markets.
method Characterized optimal operating strategy for storage systems, determined equilibrium price in a market with storage, renewables, and conventional producers, and characterized price process using stochastic differential equations.
result Increased average revenues and interquantile ranges for storage assets in energy transition scenarios.
Study examines how EU's Value at Risk constraints affect insurance oligopolies.
problem Impact of EU's Value at Risk constraints on insurance oligopolies.
method Bertrand model with profit-maximizing companies facing Value at Risk constraints.
result Value at Risk constraints can lead to monopolistic premiums or market failure.
Investor and firm optimize sustainable investment and emission reduction through a dynamic game.
problem Optimal sustainable investment and emission reduction in a dynamic game setting.
method Formulated as a nonzero-sum dynamic game, solved via variational inequalities and verified in a diffusive setup.
result Nash equilibria show moving boundaries increasing with emission abatement, triggered by both investor and firm actions.
RL agent learns to avoid market spoofing.
problem Avoiding subtle non-normative behavior in trading agents.
method Learned recognizer incorporated into RL agent's reward function.
result RL agent avoids spoofing while remaining profitable.
Currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the mark…
This paper introduces a Bayesian framework for optimizing online experiments to maximize profit.
problem Statistical flaws and reliance on proxy metrics in A/B tests compromise their effectiveness.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating conversion probability and monetary value, decision-theoretic stopping rule.
result The framework ensures experiments conclude when no variant offers a significant profit improvement, conserving resources.
Paper analyzes how latency affects optimal order execution in markets.
problem Balancing profit from optimal order execution against execution risk.
method Stochastic optimal control problem with risk-averse trader.
result Closed-form approximations of fill probability, limit price, and latency.
Study models weather index insurance pricing by insurers and farmers, finding flexible pricing kernels boost profits.
problem Monopoly pricing of weather index insurance with risk and flexibility considerations.
method Bowley-type sequential game with insurer and farmer, using neural networks for farmer's payoff.
result Flexible pricing kernels increase insurer profits closer to indemnity insurance levels.
An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents is described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize its expected profit with possible risks in market. Infinite growth of a firm dire…
Real life hedging in the Black-Scholes model must be imperfect and if the stock's drift is higher than the risk free rate, leads to a profit on average. Hence the option price is examined as a fair game agreement between the parties, based on expected payoffs and a simple measure of risk. The resulting prices result in…
A version of indifference valuation of a European call option is proposed that includes statistical regularities of nonstochastic randomness. Classical relations (forward contract value and Black-Scholes formula) are obtained as particular cases. We show that in the general case of nonstochastic randomness the minimal …
New trading strategy beats traditional grid in crypto markets.
problem Low expected return of traditional grid trading strategy.
method Dynamic Grid Trading (DGT) strategy that adapts to market conditions.
result DGT strategy outperforms traditional grid and buy-and-hold strategies.
Optimal dividends strategy in a two-state regime-switching environment.
problem Maximizing profits from dividends until bankruptcy in a company with fluctuating cash surplus and regime changes in drift, volatility, and bankruptcy levels.
method Analyzes the optimal dividend payout strategy considering four factors: Brownian fluctuations in cash surplus, regime changes in drift, volatility, and bankruptcy levels.
result Rich structure of the optimal strategy, which can be either barrier-type or liquidation-barrier type, depending on model parameters.
Paper optimizes financial trading strategies under uncertain market conditions.
problem Guaranteeing robust positive expected profits in financial systems.
method Transformed semi-infinite constraints into structured policies and proposed a novel graphical approach.
result Demonstrated superior risk-adjusted returns and downside risk compared to conventional strategies.
The paper applies thermodynamics to financial markets to prove no-arbitrage constraints.
problem No arbitrage in financial markets under price impact.
method Stochastic thermodynamics applied to financial trading cycles.
result Proves any round-trip trading strategy yields non-positive expected profit.
Optimal market making improves liquidity in prediction markets.
problem Efficient price discovery in prediction markets.
method Stochastic control framework for optimal market making.
result Optimal market quotes improve downside protection and profit.
This paper considers an optimal control of a big financial company with debt liability under bankrupt probability constraints. The company, which faces constant liability payments and has choices to choose various production/business policies from an available set of control policies with different expected profits and…
In a market system, regulations are designed to prevent or rectify market failures that inhibit fair exchange, such as monopoly or transactions with hidden costs. Because regulations reduce profits to those possessing unfair advantage, these advantaged corporations (whether individuals, companies, or other collective o…
Paper uses conformal prediction for solar power forecasting in electricity markets.
problem Enhancing participation in electricity markets through accurate day-ahead PV power predictions.
method Combines machine learning for point predictions and conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification.
result CP with k-nearest neighbors and Mondrian binning outperforms linear quantile regressors in predicting PV power.
This paper studies optimal market making for large-tick assets in the presence of latency. We consider a random walk model for the asset price, and formulate the market maker's optimization problem using Markov Decision Processes (MDP). We characterize the value of an order and show that it plays the role of one-period…
A trading system predicts stock prices using DNNs for Abercrombie & Fitch Co. shares.
problem Complexity and unpredictability of stock market prices.
method Feed-forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for price prediction, technical indicators for trade generation.
result Increased profitability with high Sharpe, Sortino, and Calmar ratios.
Paper uses GNNs to efficiently detect profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities.
problem Detecting profitable triangular arbitrage opportunities in dynamic markets.
method Formulate the problem as a graph-based optimization task and use a GNN architecture to capture complex relationships.
result GNN-based method achieves higher average yield with reduced computational time compared to traditional methods.
MACE optimizes stock portfolios for maximal predictability.
problem Maximizing risk-adjusted profitability through predictable stock returns.
method Developed a machine learning algorithm (MACE) using Random Forest and Ridge Regression.
result Significant increases in predictability and profitability with minimal conditioning information.
The study compares profitability of conventional and Islamic banks in Bangladesh.
problem Evaluating profitability of commercial banks in Bangladesh.
method Examined bank-specific, industry-specific, and banking system factors on profitability.
result Islamic banks consistently outperform conventional banks in profitability.