A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimizes target value in stochastic black box functions.
Reverse sensitivity analysis for risk models under various stresses.
We proposed the expected energy-based restricted Boltzmann machine (EE-RBM) as a discriminative RBM method for classification. Two characteristics of the EE-RBM are that the output is unbounded and that the target value of correct classification is set to a value much greater than one. In this study, by adopting featur…
Paper proposes a modified uncertainty sampling method to speed up preference learning from noisy humans.
We consider optimization of composite objective functions, i.e., of the form , where is a black-box derivative-free expensive-to-evaluate function with vector-valued outputs, and is a cheap-to-evaluate real-valued function. While these problems can be solved with standard Bayesian optimization, we…
In most classification tasks there are observations that are ambiguous and therefore difficult to correctly label. Set-valued classifiers output sets of plausible labels rather than a single label, thereby giving a more appropriate and informative treatment to the labeling of ambiguous instances. We introduce a framewo…
Analytic expressions for deep neural network output under stochastic training.
Estimates MLP expected output without sampling, using fewer FLOPs.
We present a general method to detect and extract from a finite time sample statistically meaningful correlations between input and output variables of large dimensionality. Our central result is derived from the theory of free random matrices, and gives an explicit expression for the interval where singular values are…
Investment strategy for DC pension plan with inflation risk and tail VaR constraint.
Bayesian optimization has demonstrated impressive success in finding the optimum input x* and output f* = f(x*) = max f(x) of a black-box function f. In some applications, however, the optimum output f* is known in advance and the goal is to find the corresponding optimum input x*. In this paper, we consider a new sett…
We consider the problem of joint modelling of metabolic signals and gene expression in systems biology applications. We propose an approach based on input-output factorial hidden Markov models and propose a structured variational inference approach to infer the structure and states of the model. We start from the class…
This paper enhances privacy in statistical model checking of cyber-physical systems.
Proposes FOAGP for efficient orthogonal effect decomposition of black-box computer experiments.
PAC-Bayes bounds have been proposed to get risk estimates based on a training sample. In this paper the PAC-Bayes approach is combined with stability of the hypothesis learned by a Hilbert space valued algorithm. The PAC-Bayes setting is used with a Gaussian prior centered at the expected output. Thus a novelty of our …
A new conformal prediction framework for graph-valued outputs using Z-Gromov-Wasserstein distances.
Bayesian optimization of function networks using intermediate outputs.
This paper improves deep learning model consistency through ensemble methods.
Study shows limitations and possibilities of learning quantum circuit output distributions.
Randomized algorithm solves vector-valued regression problems with low-rank operators.
New method steals deep neural network knowledge using unlabeled data.
A new neural network model predicts inflation and output gap more accurately.
In a binary classification problem the feature vector (predictor) is the input to a scoring function that produces a decision value (score), which is compared to a particular chosen threshold to provide a final class prediction (output). Although the normal assumption of the scoring function is important in many applic…
A new approach to sensitivity analysis without the Sobol decomposition.
Dropout neural networks can approximate any function with high probability.
Study confirms learning rates for vector-valued spectral algorithms, proving consistency.
Multi-output Gaussian processes (MOGP) are probability distributions over vector-valued functions, and have been previously used for multi-output regression and for multi-class classification. A less explored facet of the multi-output Gaussian process is that it can be used as a generative model for vector-valued rando…
Maxout networks study gradients and propose initialization strategies.
Optimal intervention in economic networks modeled as influence maximization, with hard computational problems.
Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.
Deep generative networks provide a powerful tool for modeling complex data in a wide range of applications. In inverse problems that use these networks as generative priors on data, one must often perform inference of the inputs of the networks from the outputs. Inference is also required for sampling during stochastic…
Industrial process control systems try to keep an output variable within a given tolerance around a target value. PID control systems have been widely used in industry to control input variables in order to reach this goal. However, this kind of Transfer Function based approach cannot be extended to complex processes w…
Deep neural networks (NN) are extensively used for machine learning tasks such as image classification, perception and control of autonomous systems. Increasingly, these deep NNs are also been deployed in high-assurance applications. Thus, there is a pressing need for developing techniques to verify neural networks to …
A residual network (or ResNet) is a standard deep neural net architecture, with state-of-the-art performance across numerous applications. The main premise of ResNets is that they allow the training of each layer to focus on fitting just the residual of the previous layer's output and the target output. Thus, we should…
RePULSe improves language model alignment by reducing undesired outputs without sacrificing overall performance.
Outlier detection aims to identify unusual data instances that deviate from expected patterns. The outlier detection is particularly challenging when outliers are context dependent and when they are defined by unusual combinations of multiple outcome variable values. In this paper, we develop and study a new conditiona…
Proposes RM-CVaR for better portfolio optimization using multiple β-CVaR.
The goal of supervised feature selection is to find a subset of input features that are responsible for predicting output values. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) allows computationally efficient feature selection based on linear dependency between input features and output values. In this pa…
FFBO optimizes functions as inputs and outputs, improving on existing BO methods.
In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\it day-ahead} and {\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices and the distributions of prediction errors for the electricity demand traded in tw…
A non-Euclidean generalization of conditional expectation is introduced and characterized as the minimizer of expected intrinsic squared-distance from a manifold-valued target. The computational tractable formulation expresses the non-convex optimization problem as transformations of Euclidean conditional expectation. …
Financial institutions have to allocate so-called "economic capital" in order to guarantee solvency to their clients and counter parties. Mathematically speaking, any methodology of allocating capital is a "risk measure", i.e. a function mapping random variables to the real numbers. Nowadays "value-at-risk", which is d…
A new tail-shape index based on Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall.
Sublinear functionals of random variables are known as sublinear expectations; they are convex homogeneous functionals on infinite-dimensional linear spaces. We extend this concept for set-valued functionals defined on measurable set-valued functions (which form a nonlinear space), equivalently, on random closed sets. …
We study the problem of structured output learning from a regression perspective. We first provide a general formulation of the kernel dependency estimation (KDE) problem using operator-valued kernels. We show that some of the existing formulations of this problem are special cases of our framework. We then propose a c…
Spatio-temporal problems are ubiquitous and of vital importance in many research fields. Despite the potential already demonstrated by deep learning methods in modeling spatio-temporal data, typical approaches tend to focus solely on conditional expectations of the output variables being modeled. In this paper, we prop…
Expected Shortfall (ES) in several variants has been proposed as remedy for the defi-ciencies of Value-at-Risk (VaR) which in general is not a coherent risk measure. In fact, most definitions of ES lead to the same results when applied to continuous loss distributions. Differences may appear when the underlying loss di…
PCBM improves neural network generalization by partially observing concepts.