Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.
problem Understanding and optimizing behavior in complex systems.
method Combines Bayesian decision theory, optimal Bayesian design, and the free energy principle.
result Active inference emerges as a unified framework for information-seeking, utility maximization, and goal-directed behavior.
Proposes data-driven methods for estimating conditional expectations.
problem Estimating conditional expectations when underlying density is unknown.
method Data-driven techniques to directly estimate conditional expectations from training data.
result Extends data-driven method to solve nonlinear equations in stochastic optimization.
New unbiased gradient estimators for complex optimization problems.
problem Unbiased and variance-limited gradient estimation for conditional stochastic optimization.
method Developed multilevel Monte Carlo gradient estimators for conditional stochastic optimization problems.
result Unbiased and finite variance gradient estimators for conditional stochastic optimization problems.
State-level minimum Bayes risk (sMBR) training has become the de facto standard for sequence-level training of speech recognition acoustic models. It has an elegant formulation using the expectation semiring, and gives large improvements in word error rate (WER) over models trained solely using cross-entropy (CE) or co…
Study optimal investment and consumption in incomplete markets with nonlinear expectations.
problem Utility maximization in incomplete markets with general constraints.
method Utilizes g-martingale method to solve optimization problem for various utility functions. result Characterizes optimal investment-consumption strategy through quadratic BSDE solutions.
Study shows equivalence of four risk constraints in non-concave optimization problems.
problem Investigating risk constraints in non-concave optimization for financial companies.
method Analytical solutions for four risk constraints (ES, EDS, VaR, AVaR) under non-concave optimization.
result All four risk constraints lead to the same optimal solution, differing from concave optimization.
Paper optimizes stochastic optimization with multiple constraints.
problem Optimizing objective functions with multiple expectation constraints.
method Extended cooperative stochastic approximation algorithm.
result Achieves optimal convergence rate for optimality gap and constraint violation.
Paper examines the relationship between maximizing and minimizing expected return in portfolio optimization.
problem Investment risk and return optimization in portfolio problems.
method Lagrange undetermined multiplier method and replica analysis.
result Derived mean square error and correlation coefficient of optimal portfolios as functions of risk tolerance.
Paper proposes an unbiased optimization method for Bayesian experimental design.
problem Maximizing expected information gain in Bayesian experimental design.
method Randomized multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method combined with stochastic gradient descent.
result An unbiased estimator for the gradient of expected information gain.
Paper solves optimization problems with convex expectation constraints using a new algorithm.
problem Minimizing convex expectation functions with inequality convex expectation constraints.
method Stochastic Augmented Lagrangian-Type Algorithm (Stochastic Linearized Proximal Method of Multipliers).
result Algorithm achieves O(K−1/2) convergence rates for objective reduction and constraint violation. The paper compares different risk measures for optimal portfolio strategies.
problem Finding optimal portfolio strategies with various risk measures.
method Applying the Black-Scholes model and Martingale method to solve the static optimization problem.
result Comparison of different risk measures' performances on terminal wealths and optimal strategies.
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
problem Optimal expected utility in markets with insider information.
method An extension of the Black-Scholes-Merton model with a sequence of discrete-time economies.
result Optimal expected utility converges to the classic model when conditions are met.
The paper confirms a conjecture about optimal expected utility in discrete-time markets approaching a continuous-time model.
problem Analyzing the convergence of optimal expected utility in discrete-time markets to a continuous-time model.
method Examined a sequence of discrete-time economies generated by scaled random walks, and compared their optimal expected utilities to the continuous-time Black-Scholes-Merton model.
result The conjecture holds for utility functions with asymptotic elasticity strictly less than one, but fails for elasticity equal to one.
Paper solves portfolio optimization with fuzzy risk and credibility theory.
problem Optimizing investment in risky assets with fuzzy risk and credibility theory.
method Formulated as an optimization problem with credibilistic expected utility. Derived formulas for optimal allocation using various moments and utility function parameters.
result Different formulas for optimal allocation of risky assets are derived, considering fuzzy risk and utility function parameters.
We develop a theory for solving continuous time optimal stopping problems for non-linear expectations. Our motivation is to consider problems in which the stopper uses risk measures to evaluate future rewards.
We study the existence of optimal actions in a zero-sum game infτsupPEP[Xτ] between a stopper and a controller choosing a probability measure. This includes the optimal stopping problem infτE(Xτ) for a class of sublinear expectations E(⋅) such as the G-expectation. We show that …
The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.
problem Risk measures and optimal reserve allocation across multiple lines of business.
method Formalizes expected maximum deficit, introduces implicitly bounded risk measures, and proposes capital allocation approaches.
result Theoretical results on static and dynamic coherence, convexity, and exact optimizations of aggregate minimum reserves.
The paper analyzes how sensitive long-term utility of optimal portfolios is to changes in market models.
problem Sensitivity of long-term expected utility of optimal portfolios to market model changes.
method Analyzes utility maximization problem with long-time horizon under incomplete market given by a factor model, focusing on eigenpairs of operators.
result Eigenpairs determine long-term sensitivity of optimal expected utility to market model changes.
Study on expectile and expected shortfall for tail risk assessment.
problem Comparing expectile and expected shortfall for tail risk assessment.
method Duality results and optimized certainty equivalent.
result Derived bounds and asymptotic behavior of expectile with respect to expected shortfall.
A new method approximates expected empirical loss for stochastic deep learning tasks.
problem Determining optimal step sizes for stochastic gradient descent in deep learning.
method Applying one-dimensional function fitting to noisy losses of vertical cross sections to approximate expected empirical loss.
result The method leads to a robust and straightforward optimization method that performs well across datasets and architectures.
Efficiently designs experiments without integrating posterior distributions.
problem Computational inefficiency in Bayesian experimental design for PDE-based models.
method Likelihood-free approach using ANN to approximate conditional expectation.
result Significant reduction in observation model evaluations.
Quantum algorithm speeds up nested expectation estimation by nearly quadratically.
problem Estimating repeatedly nested expectations with quantum computing.
method Proposes a quantum algorithm achieving nearly quadratic speedup over classical methods.
result Achieves nearly quadratic speedup for RNEs, up to logarithmic factors.
New algorithm solves composite optimization problems with unknown expectations.
problem Solving composite optimization problems with unknown statistical expectations.
method Proposes a new stochastic primal-dual algorithm for composite optimization problems with unknown statistical expectations.
result Converges to a saddle point of the Lagrangian function.
Optimal financial strategies minimize risk under uncertain models.
problem Maximizing utility in financial markets with model uncertainty.
method Optimized strategies converge to those with minimal norm as uncertainty increases.
result Optimal strategies with minimal norm emerge as uncertainty grows.
We propose a novel, theoretically-grounded, acquisition function for Batch Bayesian optimization informed by insights from distributionally ambiguous optimization. Our acquisition function is a lower bound on the well-known Expected Improvement function, which requires evaluation of a Gaussian Expectation over a multiv…
The study finds lottery tickets with positive expected returns are not worth buying.
problem Determining which lottery tickets have positive expected returns.
method Elementary portfolio analysis to evaluate investment strategies.
result Optimal investment strategy includes a very small allocation for lottery tickets with positive expected returns.
Study optimal control with expectation constraint, proving smooth boundary and deriving numerical methods.
problem Optimal control with expectation constraint in a smooth boundary case.
method Uniform ellipticity proof, truncation argument, approximating sequence of PDEs, convergence analysis, numerical schemes.
result Proved smooth boundary and derived numerical methods for optimal control problem.
In this paper we will discuss the optimal risk transfer problems when risk measures are generated by G-expectations, and we present the relationship between inf-convolution of G-expectations and the inf-convolution of drivers G.
We consider an infinite dimensional optimization problem motivated by mathematical economics. Within the celebrated "Arbitrage Pricing Model", we use probabilistic and functional analytic techniques to show the existence of optimal strategies for investors who maximize their expected utility.
Two approaches integrate qualitative views into portfolio optimization, showing aggregation methods outperform robust optimization.
problem Incorporating qualitative views into portfolio optimization models.
method Robust optimization and order aggregation methods.
result Aggregation methods outperform robust optimization in portfolio performance analysis.
This paper solves a coinsurance problem using fuzzy numbers and expected utility operators.
problem Formulating a coinsurance problem in the possibilistic setting of expected utility operators.
method Developed a framework using expected utility operators to model risk aversion and solve the coinsurance problem.
result Various formulas for the optimal T-coinsurance rate are derived for specific utility functions and fuzzy numbers. Gradient noise improves privacy-protected optimization performance.
problem Improving privacy in convex optimization while maintaining utility.
method We analyze the effect of gradient perturbation on differentially private convex optimization, focusing on expected curvature.
result Gradient perturbation can achieve a significantly improved utility guarantee for differentially private convex optimization.
Optimal strategy identified for minimizing regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
problem Minimizing expected simple regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
method Two-Stage (TS)-Hirano-Imbens-Ridder (HIR) strategy using HIR estimator.
result TS-HIR strategy is asymptotically minimax optimal.
Optimizes target value in stochastic black box functions.
problem Finding input to minimize expected squared error to target value.
method Derives acquisition functions for expected improvement, probability of improvement, and lower confidence bound, assuming Gaussian aleatoric effects.
result Acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization under certain conditions.
Optimizes treatment allocation using covariates for better outcomes.
problem Improving treatment allocation in multi-armed bandit problems.
method Maximizes a functional of the conditional potential outcome distribution.
result Developed expected regret lower bounds and near minimax optimal policy.
Establishes geometric convergence of iterative optimization algorithms.
problem Analyzes convergence of iterative optimization algorithms under general assumptions.
method General framework for iterative optimization algorithms, proving asymptotic geometric convergence and providing convergence rates.
result Asymptotic geometric convergence of iterative optimization algorithms with exact rate.
New method optimizes costly functions with unknown costs and budget constraints.
problem Optimizing functions with unknown and heterogeneous evaluation costs under a budget constraint.
method Budgeted multi-step expected improvement acquisition function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in various synthetic and real problems.
We construct a time-consistent sublinear expectation in the setting of volatility uncertainty. This mapping extends Peng's G-expectation by allowing the range of the volatility uncertainty to be stochastic. Our construction is purely probabilistic and based on an optimal control formulation with path-dependent control …
Optimal transport framework for density estimation with constraints.
problem Density estimation under expectation constraints.
method Minimizes Wasserstein distance subject to expected value constraints and regularization.
result Framework effectively addresses non-smooth constraints through annealing-like algorithm.
A non-Euclidean generalization of conditional expectation is introduced and characterized as the minimizer of expected intrinsic squared-distance from a manifold-valued target. The computational tractable formulation expresses the non-convex optimization problem as transformations of Euclidean conditional expectation. …
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
problem Understanding how people make decisions with uncertain timing of payments.
method Normative model of growth-optimality, revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries.
result Growth-optimality better explains experimental data on time lotteries than expected discounted utility theory.
A new method for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization.
problem Challenges in extending BO to high dimensions.
method Expected Coordinate Improvement (ECI) criterion for high-dimensional Bayesian optimization.
result Significantly better results than standard BO and competitive results with state-of-the-art methods.
Investigates risk measures for DC pension decumulation.
problem Develop optimal decumulation strategies for DC plan holders.
method Formulates decumulation as a control problem, studies risk measures (expected shortfall, linear shortfall, probability of shortfall).
result Optimal controls for expected reward and expected shortfall are identical to those for expected reward and linear shortfall.
Bayesian optimization for composite functions improves efficiency.
problem Optimizing composite functions with expensive derivative-free evaluations.
method Exploits composite structure using multi-output Gaussian process and expected improvement for composite functions.
result Significantly improves sampling efficiency and asymptotically converges to global optimum.
Posterior sampling-based EI achieves sublinear regret bounds for expensive function optimization.
problem Theoretical analysis of expected improvement (EI) in Bayesian optimization.
method Randomized posterior sampling of EI.
result Achieves sublinear Bayesian cumulative regret bounds.
We propose a flexible framework for hedging a contingent claim by holding static positions in vanilla European calls, puts, bonds, and forwards. A model-free expression is derived for the optimal static hedging strategy that minimizes the expected squared hedging error subject to a cost constraint. The optimal hedge in…
GBC methods compute expected utility without needing the model's density.
problem Computing expected utility in complex models.
method Density-free generative method using quantile neural estimator.
result Efficient estimation of expected utility from simulated data.
LogEI improves Bayesian optimization by simplifying numerical computation of EI and related functions.
problem Numerical pathologies in optimizing EI and related acquisition functions.
method Proposes LogEI, a family of acquisition functions that simplify numerical optimization.
result LogEI members improve optimization performance and match or exceed state-of-the-art methods.