Paper generalizes EC inference for loopy models.
problem Probabilistic inference in loopy models.
method Generalized Expectation Consistency (GEC) method.
result GEC can be applied to MAP and MMSE estimation.
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48 results for “expectation consistent”
This paper rethinks confidence calibration under covariate shifts.
problem Calibration methods struggle with covariate shifts and unstable importance weighting.
method Derives Expectation consistency condition and proposes Expectation consistency loss (ECL).
result ECL loss is compatible with various types of calibration and has the same sample complexity as ECE.
The study investigates the consistency of -means clustering under finite expectation assumptions.
problem Consistency of -means clustering under finite expectation assumptions.
method Investigates the conditions under which -means clustering is consistent, considering finite expectation instead of finite variance.
result Inconsistency can arise due to extreme cluster imbalance, leading to some clusters having few points.
We consider filtration consistent nonlinear expectations in probability spaces satisfying only the usual conditions and separability. Under a domination assumption, we demonstrate that these nonlinear expectations can be expressed as the solutions to Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Lipschitz continuous …
Paper proposes a new estimator for nested expectations with faster convergence.
problem Estimating nested expectations is computationally challenging.
method Nested kernel quadrature estimators with proof of faster convergence rate.
result The proposed method requires fewer samples for accurate estimation.
Introduces a new conditional expectation under distorted probabilities, addressing time-inconsistency.
problem Time-inconsistency in nonlinear expectations under probability distortion.
method Localizes probability distortion and constructs a time-consistent conditional expectation.
result Constructs a conditional expectation that is time-consistent and corresponds to a parabolic differential equation.
We provide a general construction of time-consistent sublinear expectations on the space of continuous paths. It yields the existence of the conditional G-expectation of a Borel-measurable (rather than quasi-continuous) random variable, a generalization of the random G-expectation, and an optional sampling theorem that…
Random G-expectationsmath.PR
We construct a time-consistent sublinear expectation in the setting of volatility uncertainty. This mapping extends Peng's G-expectation by allowing the range of the volatility uncertainty to be stochastic. Our construction is purely probabilistic and based on an optimal control formulation with path-dependent control …
We study the dynamic indifference pricing with ambiguity preferences. For this, we introduce the dynamic expected utility with ambiguity via the nonlinear expectation--G-expectation, introduced by Peng (2007). We also study the risk aversion and certainty equivalent for the agents with ambiguity. We obtain the dynamic …
The paper examines the consistency of item embeddings in recommendation systems.
problem The relevance of averaging item embeddings for user or concept representation.
method Proposes an expected precision score to measure consistency and analyzes it theoretically and empirically.
result Real-world averages are less consistent for recommendation compared to theoretical assumptions.
A new method for interpretable regression using data-dependent coverings.
problem Creating interpretable regression function estimators.
method Data-dependent coverings to generate a covering of the feature space instead of a partition.
result Ensures consistency without the need for shrinking cells, reducing the number of covering elements.
The paper defines and characterizes conditional nonlinear expectations.
problem Defining and characterizing conditional nonlinear expectations.
method Embedding in decision theory, using state-dependent preferences, and continuous utility representation.
result Consistent backward conditional projections are characterized by the Sure-Thing Principle.
The paper analyzes risk measures and optimal reserve allocation strategies.
problem Risk measures and optimal reserve allocation across multiple lines of business.
method Formalizes expected maximum deficit, introduces implicitly bounded risk measures, and proposes capital allocation approaches.
result Theoretical results on static and dynamic coherence, convexity, and exact optimizations of aggregate minimum reserves.
The paper identifies regions where investment strategies match expected performance.
problem Inconsistent performance of Markowitz efficient portfolios.
method Density forecasting to measure ex-ante accuracy and identify the consistency region.
result Investment strategies based on consistent portfolios outperform efficient ones.
Improved nonparametric regression with debiasing for root-n consistency.
problem Challenges in achieving root-n consistency and normal distribution for nonparametric estimators.
method Debiasing technique by adding a correction term to nonparametric estimators.
result Achieves root-n consistency and asymptotic normality.
We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging problem. The superhedging strate…
The paper deals with incorporating statistical uncertainty in decision-making.
problem Statistical uncertainty in decision-making.
method Theory of nonlinear expectations.
result Explicit and consistent incorporation of uncertainty in decision valuation.
The paper studies dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their representation.
problem Representing dynamic star-shaped risk measures and their properties.
method Representation theorems for dynamic monetary and star-shaped risk measures.
result Dynamic star-shaped risk measures can be represented as the lower envelope of a family of dynamic convex risk measures.
Adapts EGOP to multi-class setting and proposes a simple rough estimator.
problem Recovering relevant directions for multi-class regression.
method Adapt EGOP to multi-class setting, propose a simple rough estimator.
result Simple rough estimator of EJOP remains statistically consistent.
A new framework models quantile and Expected Shortfall simultaneously.
problem Modeling quantile and Expected Shortfall for risk assessment.
method Strictly consistent loss function for quantile and ES estimation, M- and Z-estimation.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of estimators under weak conditions.
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
This paper evaluates Range Value at Risk forecasts using consistent scoring functions.
problem Evaluating and comparing the performance of Range Value at Risk (RVaR) forecasts.
method Using strictly consistent loss or scoring functions, the paper characterizes the class of scoring functions for a triplet of RVaR with two VaR components.
result A triplet of RVaR with two VaR components at different levels is elicitable, and the class of strictly consistent scoring functions is characterized.
We study time consistent dynamic pricing mechanisms of European contingent claims under uncertainty by using G framework introduced by Peng ([24]). We consider a financial market consisting of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modelled by a geometric generalized G-Brownian motion, which features the…
Most previous contributions to BSDEs, and the related theories of nonlinear expectation and dynamic risk measures, have been in the framework of continuous time diffusions or jump diffusions. Using solutions of BSDEs on spaces related to finite state, continuous time Markov chains, we develop a theory of nonlinear expe…
Bayesian optimization for composite functions improves efficiency.
problem Optimizing composite functions with expensive derivative-free evaluations.
method Exploits composite structure using multi-output Gaussian process and expected improvement for composite functions.
result Significantly improves sampling efficiency and asymptotically converges to global optimum.
Develops a new option pricing model under G-expectation framework.
problem Modeling uncertainty in financial markets and robust valuation under model uncertainty.
method G-expectation framework, logarithmic transformation, finite difference schemes.
result Unified risk-neutral valuation approach yielding G-Black-Scholes equation.
Global analysis of EM for mixtures of two Gaussians provides convergence insights.
problem Discrepancy between EM's theoretical guarantees and practical behavior.
method Analyzes EM's behavior in infinite sample limit and actual sequence of parameters.
result Characterizes limit points of EM sequence and establishes statistical consistency.
We provide an economic interpretation of the practice consisting in incorporating risk measures as constraints in a classic expected return maximization problem. For what we call the infimum of expectations class of risk measures, we show that if the decision maker (DM) maximizes the expectation of a random return unde…
We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We prop…
The discrete-time mean-variance portfolio selection formulation, a representative of general dynamic mean-risk portfolio selection problems, does not satisfy time consistency in efficiency (TCIE) in general, i.e., a truncated pre-committed efficient policy may become inefficient when considering the corresponding trunc…
New framework models stock relationships and investor expectations for better financial market predictions.
problem Limited by predefined stock relationships and immediate effects, current financial market analysis methods need improvement.
method Jointly models investor expectations and automatically mines latent stock relationships.
result Annual return exceeds 10%, surpassing existing benchmarks.
Diffusion models' consistency across splits explained by random matrix theory.
problem Consistency of diffusion models trained on non-overlapping subsets.
method Random matrix theory framework to quantify dataset effects on denoiser and sampling map.
result The theory explains and predicts cross-split disagreement in diffusion models.
In many countries information on expectations collected through consumer confidence surveys are used in macroeconomic policy formulation. Unfortunately, before doing so, the consistency of responses is often not taken into account, leading to biases creeping in and affecting the reliability of the indices hence created…
Improved model for grouping nodes in bipartite networks.
problem Challenges in grouping nodes in bipartite graphs.
method Introduced DC-LBM and developed variational EM algorithm.
result Significantly enhanced performance on real-world data.
This paper presents a framework for exact discovery of the top-k sequential patterns under Leverage. It combines (1) a novel definition of the expected support for a sequential pattern - a concept on which most interestingness measures directly rely - with (2) SkOPUS: a new branch-and-bound algorithm for the exact disc…
EC method calibrates neural networks by matching average confidence to correct label proportion.
problem Overoptimism in neural network prediction confidence.
method Expectation consistency (EC) post-training rescaling of weights.
result EC achieves similar calibration performance to temperature scaling (TS) but is based on a principled Bayesian principle.
A new learning rule consistently reduces error over data samples.
problem Finding a learning rule that consistently reduces error over all data distributions.
method A deterministic, data-dependent partitioning rule that only partitions cyclic intervals with sufficient empirical diversity of labels.
result The expected error is monotone non-increasing with the sample size under every data distribution.
Discrete time portfolio optimisation managing value at risk under heavy tail return distributionq-fin.PM
Investor optimizes portfolio to manage risk with heavy-tailed stock returns.
problem Managing risk in portfolios with heavy-tailed stock returns.
method Markov Decision Process and dynamic programming for optimal strategies and value function.
result Optimal strategies and value function maximizing expected utility for both parametric and non-parametric distributions.
Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…
Coherence and elicitabilityq-fin.RM
The risk of a financial position is usually summarized by a risk measure. As this risk measure has to be estimated from historical data, it is important to be able to verify and compare competing estimation procedures. In statistical decision theory, risk measures for which such verification and comparison is possible,…
Paper tackles expected predictions computation for arbitrary generative models.
problem Hard to compute expected predictions for arbitrary generative models.
method Identifies tractable generative and discriminative models for expected predictions.
result Tractable computation of high-order moments and expectations for classification.
Equilibrium Portfolio Selection under Utility-Variance Analysis of Log Returns in Incomplete Marketsq-fin.PM
The paper solves a portfolio selection problem in incomplete markets by balancing utility and risk.
problem Time-inconsistent portfolio selection in incomplete markets.
method Characterizes equilibrium via a coupled quadratic BSDE system, introduces approximate equilibrium for general cases.
result Established existence theory for equilibrium strategies in special and general cases.
Study combines VaR and ES forecasts using MCS to improve risk predictions.
problem Combining VaR and ES forecasts to improve risk predictions under uncertainty.
method Employed Model Confidence Set (MCS) methodology to identify best-performing models and combine their forecasts.
result Proposed combined predictors are robust and pass standard backtests.
New algorithm learns mappings between metric spaces, achieving strong consistency.
problem Learning mappings between metric spaces with unbounded loss.
method Metric medoids and semi-stable compression.
result Strong Bayes-consistency for topologically separable spaces and bounded labels.
We define Conditional quasi concave Performance Measures (CPMs), on random variables bounded from below, to accommodate for additional information. Our notion encompasses a wide variety of cases, from conditional expected utility and certainty equivalent to conditional acceptability indexes. We provide the characteriza…
We consider the problem of sequential sampling from a finite number of independent statistical populations to maximize the expected infinite horizon average outcome per period, under a constraint that the expected average sampling cost does not exceed an upper bound. The outcome distributions are not known. We construc…
This paper improves deep learning model consistency through ensemble methods.
problem Consistency and correct-consistency issues in deep learning models.
method Formal definition of consistency and correct-consistency, proving ensemble improvement, proposing dynamic snapshot ensemble method.
result Ensemble methods can improve correct-consistency of deep learning models.
Consistent Bayesian causal discovery for structural equation models with equal error variancesmath.ST
Bayesian method recovers causal structure in SEMs with equal error variances.
problem Recovering causal structure in SEMs with equal error variances.
method Bayesian DAG selection method using g-priors and the key property of minimum expected squared errors.
result The method consistently recovers the true graph without additional distributional assumptions.