A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Method estimates exogenous and endogenous factors from event times.
We investigate the trading behavior of a large set of single investors trading the highly liquid Nokia stock over the period 2003-2008 with the aim of determining the relative role of endogenous and exogenous factors that may affect their behavior. As endogenous factors we consider returns and volatility, whereas the e…
Improved electricity price forecasting with NBEATSx model.
Directed networks are pervasive both in nature and engineered systems, often underlying the complex behavior observed in biological systems, microblogs and social interactions over the web, as well as global financial markets. Since their structures are often unobservable, in order to facilitate network analytics, one …
Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.
Bayesian method for multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous inputs.
New framework shows much of equity market risk may come from asset returns themselves.
Investigates portfolio selection with transaction costs and stochastic volatility, using deep learning for computation.
Price changes are induced by aggressive market orders in stock market. We introduce a bivariate marked Hawkes process to model aggressive market order arrivals at the microstructural level. The order arrival intensity is marked by an exogenous part and two endogenous processes reflecting the self-excitation and cross-e…
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
Study asset price bubbles using random matching and stochastic factors.
Sector specific multifactor CES elasticity of substitution and the corresponding productivity growths are jointly measured by regressing the growths of factor-wise cost shares against the growths of factor prices. We use linked input-output tables for Japan and the Republic of Korea as the data source for factor price …
Exogenous state variables and rewards can slow down reinforcement learning by injecting uncontrolled variation into the reward signal. We formalize exogenous state variables and rewards and identify conditions under which an MDP with exogenous state can be decomposed into an exogenous Markov Reward Process involving on…
We address microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, stochastic, modeling of the financial markets combining it with the exogenous noise. The interplay between the endogenous dynamics of agents and the exogenous noise is the primary mechanism responsible for the observed long-range dependence and statistical propertie…
Identifies patient-specific root causes of disease using structural equation models.
We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the fi…
DTS improves robustness of bandit algorithms in nonstationary environments.
Minimax PAC bounds for learning in exogenous contextual MDPs
Motivated by the reconstruction and the prediction of electricity consumption, we extend Nonnegative Matrix Factorization~(NMF) to take into account side information (column or row features). We consider general linear measurement settings, and propose a framework which models non-linear relationships between features …
Study classifies stock price jumps as exogenous or endogenous using news data.
New method learns exogenous variable distributions for better causal optimization.
We study Exo-MDPs to reduce sample complexity in reinforcement learning.
This paper uses NARX neural networks for macroeconomic forecasting and goal setting.
Paper proposes efficient methods for forecasting with large datasets.
We study large-scale spatial systems that contain exogenous variables, e.g. environmental factors that are significant predictors in spatial processes. Building predictive models for such processes is challenging because the large numbers of observations present makes it inefficient to apply full Kriging. In order to r…
Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction ac…
We study the optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance problem when both the intensity of the claims arrival process and the claim size distribution are influenced by an exogenous stochastic factor. We assume that the insurer's surplus is governed by a marked point process with dual-predictable projection affected by an envir…
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
The paper analyzes binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
The study uses Random Matrix Theory to identify structural changes in stock markets during shocks.
A technique from stochastic portfolio theory [Fernholz, 1998] is applied to analyse equity returns of Small, Mid and Large cap portfolios in an emerging market through periods of growth and regional crises, up to the onset of the global financial crisis. In particular, we factorize portfolios in the South African marke…
Enhances random forest performance with exogenous randomness.
HL algorithms improve resource allocation in cloud environments.
CausalVAE learns causal relationships in VAE models for better data disentanglement.
Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting from an underlying chaotic dynamics or from a stochastic forcing origin which ma…
Paper proposes a new MAR model for global economic forecasting.
We consider the problem of identifying the causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data. Unlike previous work, we keep the most general functional model but make an assumption on the unobserved exogenous variable: Inspired by Occam's razor, we assume that the exogenous variable is sim…
In order to disentangle the internal dynamics from exogenous factors within the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, we present an effective measure of endogeneity. Inspired from the Hawkes model, this measure is defined as the average fraction of events that are triggered due to internal feedback mechanism…
Study liquidity provision with exogenous competition using a reference market maker.
This work tackles fitting Hawkes processes to interval-censored data.
Policy analysts wish to visualize a range of policies for large simulator-defined Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). One visualization approach is to invoke the simulator to generate on-policy trajectories and then visualize those trajectories. When the simulator is expensive, this is not practical, and some method is r…
We propose a heterogeneous simultaneous graphical dynamic linear model (H-SGDLM), which extends the standard SGDLM framework to incorporate a heterogeneous autoregressive realised volatility (HAR-RV) model. This novel approach creates a GPU-scalable multivariate volatility estimator, which decomposes multiple time seri…
SPECTRA improves probabilistic energy forecasting by separating trends and uncertainties.
Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situation…
Generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models extending the (70 year old) logistic equation to stochastic systems consisting of a multitude of competing auto-catalytic components lead to power distribution laws of the (100 year old) Pareto-Zipf type. In particular, when applied to economic systems, GLV leads to power laws in…
Paper simplifies complex causal identifiability problems with exogenous isomorphism.
We reverse engineer dynamics of financial contagion to find the scenario of smallest exogenous shock that, should it occur, would lead to a given final systemic loss. This reverse stress test can be used to identify the potential triggers of systemic events, and it removes the arbitrariness in the selection of shock sc…
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…