A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model optimal liquidation in asset bubbles with varying entry times.
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 as well as smaller volatility bursts? Using a …
A new method uses burst and inter-burst duration to test long-range memory in financial markets.
The paper confirms two groups of gamma-ray bursts using a new nonparametric metric.
Given a stationary point process, an intensity burst is defined as a short time period during which the number of counts is larger than the typical count rate. It might signal a local non-stationarity or the presence of an external perturbation to the system. In this paper we propose a novel procedure for the detection…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic differential equations. In this contribution we address this problem by analyzing e…
We develop a strong diagnostic for bubbles and crashes in bitcoin, by analyzing the coincidence (and its absence) of fundamental and technical indicators. Using a generalized Metcalfe's law based on network properties, a fundamental value is quantified and shown to be heavily exceeded, on at least four occasions, by bu…
It is widely accepted that there is strong persistence in the volatility of financial time series. The origin of the observed persistence, or long-range memory, is still an open problem as the observed phenomenon could be a spurious effect. Earlier we have proposed the consentaneous model of the financial markets based…
New algorithm clusters GRBs into two groups: short and long duration.
Study on optimal bubble riding with price-dependent entry times in a mean field game model.
The origin of the long-range memory in the non-equilibrium systems is still an open problem as the phenomenon can be reproduced using models based on Markov processes. In these cases a notion of spurious memory is introduced. A good example of Markov processes with spurious memory is stochastic process driven by a non-…
In online social media systems users are not only posting, consuming, and resharing content, but also creating new and destroying existing connections in the underlying social network. While each of these two types of dynamics has individually been studied in the past, much less is known about the connection between th…
This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the most probable timing of the "burst of the gold bubble" is April - June 2011. The obtained resul…
Quarter-hour market bursts predict algorithmic trading and returns in crypto futures.
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
Noise is an inherent issue of low-light image capture, one which is exacerbated on mobile devices due to their narrow apertures and small sensors. One strategy for mitigating noise in a low-light situation is to increase the shutter time of the camera, thus allowing each photosite to integrate more light and decrease n…
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
We investigate large changes, bursts, of the continuous stochastic signals, when the exponent of multiplicativity is higher than one. Earlier we have proposed a general nonlinear stochastic model which can be transformed into Bessel process with known first hitting (first passage) time statistics. Using these results w…
Exogenous state variables and rewards can slow down reinforcement learning by injecting uncontrolled variation into the reward signal. We formalize exogenous state variables and rewards and identify conditions under which an MDP with exogenous state can be decomposed into an exogenous Markov Reward Process involving on…
Develops a hybrid MtFA approach for high-dimensional data clustering.
In low light or short-exposure photography the image is often corrupted by noise. While longer exposure helps reduce the noise, it can produce blurry results due to the object and camera motion. The reconstruction of a noise-less image is an ill posed problem. Recent approaches for image denoising aim to predict kernel…
We address microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, stochastic, modeling of the financial markets combining it with the exogenous noise. The interplay between the endogenous dynamics of agents and the exogenous noise is the primary mechanism responsible for the observed long-range dependence and statistical propertie…
We consider models of the population or opinion dynamics which result in the non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) exhibiting the spurious long-range memory. In this context, the correspondence between the description of the birth-death processes as the continuous-time Markov chains and the continuous SDE…
New deep learning model estimates scattering timescale of FRBs efficiently.
Voice Onset Time (VOT), a key measurement of speech for basic research and applied medical studies, is the time between the onset of a stop burst and the onset of voicing. When the voicing onset precedes burst onset the VOT is negative; if voicing onset follows the burst, it is positive. In this work, we present a deep…
Study classifies stock price jumps as exogenous or endogenous using news data.
New method learns exogenous variable distributions for better causal optimization.
We study Exo-MDPs to reduce sample complexity in reinforcement learning.
This paper uses NARX neural networks for macroeconomic forecasting and goal setting.
Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction ac…
New approach uses 'forward-looking' counterfactuals for treatment choice.
Two classes of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), short and long, have been determined without any doubts, and are usually ascribed to different progenitors, yet these classes overlap for a variety of descriptive parameters. A subsample of 46 long and 22 short GRBs with estimated Hurst Exponents (HEs), complemented by mi…
The paper analyzes binary option markets with exogenous information and price sensitivity.
Enhances random forest performance with exogenous randomness.
HL algorithms improve resource allocation in cloud environments.
Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting from an underlying chaotic dynamics or from a stochastic forcing origin which ma…
Improved electricity price forecasting with NBEATSx model.
Method estimates exogenous and endogenous factors from event times.
We consider the problem of identifying the causal direction between two discrete random variables using observational data. Unlike previous work, we keep the most general functional model but make an assumption on the unobserved exogenous variable: Inspired by Occam's razor, we assume that the exogenous variable is sim…
Study liquidity provision with exogenous competition using a reference market maker.
This work tackles fitting Hawkes processes to interval-censored data.
Many statistical methods have been proposed to estimate causal models in classical situations with fewer variables than observations (p<n, p: the number of variables and n: the number of observations). However, modern datasets including gene expression data need high-dimensional causal modeling in challenging situation…
Paper simplifies complex causal identifiability problems with exogenous isomorphism.
Study uses multidimensional SE-NBD process to analyze default portfolios and identify shock amplification.
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corr…
Amid the current financial crisis, there has been one equity index beating all others: the Shanghai Composite. Our analysis of this main Chinese equity index shows clear signatures of a bubble build up and we go on to predict its most likely crash date: July 17-27, 2009 (20%/80% quantile confidence interval).
We reverse engineer dynamics of financial contagion to find the scenario of smallest exogenous shock that, should it occur, would lead to a given final systemic loss. This reverse stress test can be used to identify the potential triggers of systemic events, and it removes the arbitrariness in the selection of shock sc…
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm…