This paper studies how social media posts, especially by executives, affect stock prices.
problem Predicting stock market movements using social media data.
method Integrated sentiment analysis of Twitter and Reddit posts with historical stock data using time series models and deep learning.
result Improvements in stock price prediction when social media data, especially executive posts, are included.
Simulates realistic execution and costs in limit order books.
problem Realistic simulation of limit order books for large-tick assets.
method Tractable representation of spread and volume imbalance; calibrated event timing; feedback mechanism for market impact.
result Simulator yields realistic behavior and sensitivity to execution parameters.
This paper tackles post-trade allocation inefficiencies and presents a uniform return allocation method.
problem Return divergence among accounts after trade allocation.
method Systematic treatment of trade allocation risk, presenting a uniform return allocation method.
result Uniform allocation of returns irrespective of the number of accounts and trade sizes.
Reinforcement learning is explored as a candidate machine learning technique to enhance existing analytical solutions for optimal trade execution with elements from the market microstructure. Given a volume-to-trade, fixed time horizon and discrete trading periods, the aim is to adapt a given volume trajectory such tha…
The classical literature on optimal liquidation, rooted in Almgren-Chriss models, tackles the optimal liquidation problem using a trade-off between market impact and price risk. Therefore, it only answers the general question of the optimal liquidation rhythm. The very question of the actual way to proceed with liquida…
We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human capital beta signal(s) in a firm's capital structure, in order to enhance the value of her post career change indexed executive stock option contract with the firm. We prove that the agency cost of this revolving door behavior increas…
The paper models market dynamics using a limit order book system to explain slippage and inefficiency.
problem Inefficiency in matching markets due to structural liquidity constraints and slippage.
method Introduces a market microstructure framework with a latent preference state matrix and a dynamic discrete choice execution model.
result Persistent slippage and regional invariance of preference orderings are explained by liquidity thresholds.
Trains a neural network to predict high-frequency trading outcomes.
problem Predicting the fill probability function for high-frequency trading.
method High-quality high-frequency data and neural network training with a weighted loss function.
result Strong state dependence properties of the fill probability function.
While neural sequence generation models achieve initial success for many NLP applications, the canonical decoding procedure with left-to-right generation order (i.e., autoregressive) in one-pass can not reflect the true nature of human revising a sentence to obtain a refined result. In this work, we propose XL-Editor, …
Algorithm generates realistic metaorders from public trade data.
problem Generating realistic metaorders from public data.
method Novel algorithm that recovers stylized facts of metaorders impact.
result Average realized short-term price impact has a mechanical origin.
FinBERT model identifies key speakers in earnings calls, boosting stock returns.
problem Unequal impact of all speakers in earnings call transcripts on stock returns.
method Utilized FinBERT, a domain-specific transformer model, to parse transcripts and weight speakers' sentiment.
result FinBERT section-weighted sentiment generates significant long-short alpha of 2.03%.
New method improves HPO interpretability without sacrificing performance.
problem Difficulty in understanding HPO algorithms due to black-box nature.
method Coupling Bayesian optimization with Bayesian Algorithm Execution.
result More reliable IML explanations without compromising optimization performance.
Algorithmic trading systems on DEXs reject most candidate tokens, but the counterfactual outcome of rejected candidates is rarely measured.
problem Measuring the counterfactual outcome of rejected tokens in algorithmic trading systems on decentralized exchanges.
method Post-Rejection Follow-up Sampling (PRFS) introduces a methodology for collecting and analyzing the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates.
result PRFS produces the data needed to evaluate filter precision against actual market outcomes of rejected candidates, not against synthetic backtest reconstructions.
Benchmark detects decision-time leakage in financial backtests.
problem Detecting decision-time leakage in financial machine-learning backtests.
method Toggles one evaluation convention at a time around a clean t+1-open reference, holding other factors fixed. result Inflation is highly selective, affecting specific features and execution methods.
AI agents improve forecast combination in empirical economics.
problem Hidden researcher degrees of freedom in AI-generated code.
method Adapted agent-loop architecture to empirical economics, added holdout evaluation.
result Independent agent searches find better forecast methods than benchmarks.
Unified market making controls risk, arbitrage, and volatility surfaces.
problem Market making risk, arbitrage, and volatility surface consistency.
method Constrained RL and stochastic control for risk-sensitive execution and hedging.
result Agent achieves positive P&L with zero calendar and butterfly violations.
New method for rigorous confidence intervals in off-policy evaluation.
problem Evaluate new policies from off-policy data without executing them.
method Variational framework using kernel Bellman loss.
result Efficient method for tight confidence intervals in various settings.
Data application developers and data scientists spend an inordinate amount of time iterating on machine learning (ML) workflows -- by modifying the data pre-processing, model training, and post-processing steps -- via trial-and-error to achieve the desired model performance. Existing work on accelerating machine learni…
Paper proposes a deep learning method to estimate fill probabilities of limit orders in LOBs.
problem Estimating the fill probabilities of limit orders in different levels of a limit order book.
method Survival analysis model using a convolutional-Transformer encoder and a monotonic neural network decoder.
result The proposed method significantly outperforms other approaches in survival analysis.
Detects corruption in agentic models during execution.
problem Inconsistent context, retrieval errors, or adversarial inputs corrupt intermediate steps of reasoning chains.
method Analyzes token graphs induced by attention and computes spectral statistics to emit accept/reject signals.
result A single threshold on the high frequency energy ratio optimally detects context inconsistency in agentic models.
Deep ensembles don't necessarily improve calibration in low data regimes.
problem Calibration issues in deep learning models, especially in low data regimes.
method Examination of data-augmentation, ensembling, and post-processing calibration methods.
result Standard ensembling techniques can lead to less calibrated models in low data regimes.
Paper introduces Cycles Protocol to integrate trade credit into market clearing.
problem Liquidity embedded in trade credit outside formal settlement infrastructures.
method Distributed, multilateral clearing mechanism based on double-entry accounting.
result Cycles Protocol maximizes balance sheet compression without redistributing counterparty risk.
LEMs extend transformer-based architectures for complex execution problems.
problem Handling flexible time boundaries and multiple execution constraints in deep learning.
method Decouples market information processing from execution allocation decisions using TKANs, VSNs, and multi-head attention mechanisms.
result LEMs achieve superior execution performance compared to traditional benchmarks.
A new high-frequency market making strategy using Deep Hawkes process.
problem Optimizing high-frequency trading in volatile markets.
method Developed a Deep Hawkes process to model order arrivals and their effects on the limit order book.
result The new strategy outperforms traditional methods in market making.
Study shows price impact increases with order-flow imbalance, using machine learning.
problem Understanding price impact in financial markets.
method Empirical investigation using Kyle's model and machine learning.
result Machine learning models can predict market impact more accurately than traditional methods.
Proposes a method to allocate time budgets in mixed criticality systems.
problem Managing execution time variability in mixed criticality systems.
method Quantifies execution time variability using statistical dispersion parameters and proposes a heuristic to allocate time budgets.
result The proposed heuristic reduces the probability of exceeding allocated budgets.
Optimal crypto order execution using cross-exchange signals.
problem Maximizing order execution efficiency in cryptocurrency markets.
method Reinforcement learning applied to cross-exchange data.
result Cross-exchange signals improve optimal execution outcomes.
The paper uses machine learning to detect malicious executable files.
problem Detecting malicious executable files using static analysis.
method Pre-processing, cleaning, encoding, feature selection, and ensemble training of classifiers.
result An ensemble of classifiers effectively detects malicious executable files.
We demonstrate an application of risk-sensitive reinforcement learning to optimizing execution in limit order book markets. We represent taking order execution decisions based on limit order book knowledge by a Markov Decision Process; and train a trading agent in a market simulator, which emulates multi-agent interact…
Quantization can improve the execution latency and energy efficiency of neural networks on both commodity GPUs and specialized accelerators. The majority of existing literature focuses on training quantized DNNs, while this work examines the less-studied topic of quantizing a floating-point model without (re)training. …
The paper analyzes trade execution strategies for large traders in a stochastic market environment.
problem Analyzing trade execution strategies in a stochastic market with price impact.
method Formulated a Markov game model and used backward induction method of dynamic programming.
result Explicit closed-form execution strategy at Markov perfect equilibrium.
Develops a bialgebra theory for post-Lie algebras using geometric interpretations and bilinear forms.
problem Characterizing and understanding post-Lie algebras and their associated structures.
method Utilizes Manin triples and generalized Hessian Lie groups to define and characterize post-Lie algebras with nondegenerate symmetric invariant bilinear forms.
result Establishes a bialgebra theory for post-Lie algebras via the Manin triple approach, including new algebraic structures like pp-post-Lie algebras.
As machine learning ascends the peak of computer science zeitgeist, the usage and experimentation with sentiment analysis using various forms of textual data seems pervasive. The effect is especially pronounced in formulating securities trading strategies, due to a plethora of reasons including the relative ease of imp…
Optimized execution model using interbank and internal liquidity.
problem Minimizing market impact in trading.
method Integrates interbank limit and market orders with internal market-making liquidity.
result Reduces market impact and improves execution efficiency.
Paper uses DDPG to learn optimal execution strategies in dynamic markets.
problem Learning non-Markovian optimal execution strategies in dynamic financial markets.
method Introduces a novel actor-critic algorithm based on DDPG for transient price impact modeling.
result Successfully approximates optimal execution strategy through numerical experiments.
Develops a new model to optimize trading in markets.
problem Optimal execution of market securities with transaction costs.
method Introduces a utility function balancing market impact and transaction costs, incorporating existing optimal trading strategies.
result Demonstrates a new approach to balancing market impact and transaction costs.
Paper proposes a novel policy distillation method for better order execution in noisy markets.
problem Effective order execution in noisy and imperfect market conditions.
method Policy distillation method to guide reinforcement learning towards optimal trading strategies.
result Significant improvements over various baselines in order execution.
Unified theory for optimal execution through signal-adaptive quotes in limit order books.
problem Optimal execution in limit order books with signal-dependent factors.
method Develops a unified solution theory for four execution criteria, incorporating signal-dependent drift, price impact, inventory risk, and execution risk.
result Explicit formulas reveal optimal quoting strategies and show signal-dependent drift can significantly affect execution.
Dynamic VWAP execution improves by 10-15% in liquid markets.
problem Improving VWAP execution in dynamic markets.
method Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for capturing temporal market dynamics, dynamic adjustment mechanism.
result Significant performance gains in liquid markets (10-15%) over traditional methods.
Detecting real-time price impact in algo trading
problem Identifying the impact of traders' actions on market prices
method Measuring timing synchronicity between trader actions and adverse market events
result Detecting price impact on a per-action basis
Program synthesis from natural language (NL) is practical for humans and, once technically feasible, would significantly facilitate software development and revolutionize end-user programming. We present SAPS, an end-to-end neural network capable of mapping relatively complex, multi-sentence NL specifications to snippe…
Paper uses DRL to optimize trade execution, outperforming VWAP and TWAP.
problem Optimizing returns while minimizing risk in order execution.
method Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for holistic optimization.
result DRL-based approach outperforms VWAP and TWAP in ROI and risk management.
Post-groupoids help solve Yang-Baxter equation using quivers.
problem Solving the Yang-Baxter equation using algebraic structures.
method Introducing post-groupoids and showing their connection to quivers.
result Post-groupoids provide solutions to the Yang-Baxter equation.
Optimal trading strategies in fluctuating financial markets are analyzed using complex mathematical models.
problem Optimal execution of trades in markets with fluctuating liquidity and order book depth.
method Continuous-time limit order book model with càdlàg semimartingale strategies, quadratic BSDEs.
result Characterization of minimal execution costs and existence of optimal strategies.
Many learning agents impact a financial market model, showing complex dynamics.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets with multiple learning agents.
method Agent-based model of financial market with multiple reinforcement learning agents interacting.
result Inclusion of learning agents changes market dynamics to match empirical data.
The volume weighted average price (VWAP) execution strategy is well known and widely used in practice. In this study, we explicitly introduce a trading volume process into the Almgren-Chriss model, which is a standard model for optimal execution. We then show that the VWAP strategy is the optimal execution strategy for…
RL agents optimize order execution in a realistic market simulation.
problem Optimal order execution challenges in a complex market.
method Multi-agent RL in a historical order book simulation.
result RL agents converge to TWAP strategies in some scenarios.
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
problem Adverse selection on liquidity provision
method Reconstructing metaorders and comparing them with visible TWAP executions
result Visible TWAPs face lower execution costs and leave a smaller permanent price impact compared to hidden metaorders.