A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study uses graph techniques to understand meromorphic quadratic differential strata.
In order to obtain a Markov theorem without stabilization, Birman and Menasco introduced the notion of exchange related braids. In this paper I study the way the Fiedler polynomial distinguishes conjugacy classes of some particular braided knots. I introduce the Kauffman bracket in the solid torus. Its Taylor expansion…
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
Directed graphs occur throughout statistical modeling of networks, and exchangeability is a natural assumption when the ordering of vertices does not matter. There is a deep structural theory for exchangeable undirected graphs, which extends to the directed case via measurable objects known as digraphons. Using digraph…
A known failing of many popular random graph models is that the Aldous-Hoover Theorem guarantees these graphs are dense with probability one; that is, the number of edges grows quadratically with the number of nodes. This behavior is considered unrealistic in observed graphs. We define a notion of edge exchangeability …
Model estimates foreign exchange reserve compositions of undisclosed central banks.
Modelling exchangeable relational data can be described by \textit{graphon theory}. Most Bayesian methods for modelling exchangeable relational data can be attributed to this framework by exploiting different forms of graphons. However, the graphons adopted by existing Bayesian methods are either piecewise-constant fun…
XSPNs combine SPNs and MEVMs for efficient inference in data with repeated parts.
A natural generalization of interval exchange maps are linear involutions, first introduced by Danthony and Nogueira. Recurrent train tracks with a single switch provide a subclass of linear involutions. We call such linear involutions non-classical interval exchanges. They are related to measured foliations on orienta…
Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution arises as the statistical equilibrium probability distribution of money among the agents of a closed economic system where random and undirected exchanges are allowed. When considering a model with uniform savings in the exchanges, the final distribution is close to the gamma family. In thi…
Interval exchange maps are related to geodesic flows on translation surfaces; they correspond to the first return maps of the vertical flow on a transverse segment. The Rauzy-Veech induction on the space of interval exchange maps provides a powerful tool to analyze the Teichmueller geodesic flow on the moduli space of …
Multifractal detrended cross-correlation methodology is described and applied to Foreign exchange (Forex) market time series. Fluctuations of high frequency exchange rates of eight major world currencies over 2010-2018 period are used to study cross-correlations. The study is motivated by fundamental questions in compl…
Simplified A-polynomial calculation for twisted knots.
Exchange improves liquidity by using different bid and ask tick sizes.
Study finds similar companies in Dhaka Stock Exchange using technical data.
An investigation is presented of how a comprehensive choice of five most important measures of concordance (namely Spearman's rho, Kendall's tau, Gini's gamma, Blomqvist's beta, and their weaker counterpart Spearman's footrule) relate to non-exchangeability, i.e., asymmetry on copulas. Besides these results, the method…
Foam cobordism groups linked to interval exchange automorphisms.
This study examines how DEXs impact traders' behavior in perpetual futures contracts.
A variety of machine learning tasks---e.g., matrix factorization, topic modelling, and feature allocation---can be viewed as learning the parameters of a probability distribution over bipartite graphs. Recently, a new class of models for networks, the sparse exchangeable graphs, have been introduced to resolve some imp…
Study compares market microstructure between two South African exchanges.
We introduce the cluster exchange groupoid associated to a non-degenerate quiver with potential, as an enhancement of the cluster exchange graph. In the case that arises from an (unpunctured) marked surface, where the exchange graph is modelled on the graph of triangulations of the marked surface, we show that the univ…
Foreign exchange rates movements exhibit significant cross-correlations even on very short time-scales. The effect of these statistical relationships become evident during extreme market events, such as flash crashes.In this scenario, an abrupt price swing occurring on a given market is immediately followed by anomalou…
We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we als…
Since risky positions in multivariate portfolios can be offset by various choices of capital requirements that depend on the exchange rules and related transaction costs, it is natural to assume that the risk measures of random vectors are set-valued. Furthermore, it is reasonable to include the exchange rules in the a…
Valuation and parity formulas for both European-style and American-style exchange options are presented in a general financial model allowing for jumps, possibility of default and "bubbles" in asset prices. The formulas are given via expectations of auxiliary probabilities using the change-of-numeraire technique. Exten…
We investigate the wealth evolution in a system of agents that exchange wealth through a disordered network in presence of an additive stochastic Gaussian noise. We show that the resulting wealth distribution is shaped by the degree distribution of the underlying network and in particular we verify that scale free netw…
Cryptocurrencies show stable prices as a medium of exchange.
Based on the high-frequency recordings from Kraken, a cryptocurrency exchange and professional trading platform that aims to bring Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies into the mainstream, the multiscale cross-correlations involving the Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Euro (EUR) and US dollar (USD) are studied over the pe…
This research compiles knowledge on decentralized exchanges with AMM protocols.
Blockchain scaling reduces gas fees, allowing more frequent liquidity updates and concentration.
Paper ranks stocks by compression risk, not volatility.
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
This research uses empirical copulas to price quanto options, showing significant differences from traditional models.
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
We study the effect of the social stratification on the wealth distribution on a system of interacting economic agents that are constrained to interact only within their own economic class. The economical mobility of the agents is related to its success in exchange transactions. Different wealth distributions are obtai…
EXFormer predicts foreign exchange returns with high accuracy using a multi-scale self-attention mechanism and dynamic variable selection.
The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the …
This paper characterizes projective models in statistical relational learning.
Privacy-preserving crypto exchanges adjust prices based on Gaussian noise.
We introduce a new model in order to describe the fluctuation of tick-by-tick financial time series. Our model, based on marked point process, allows us to incorporate in a unique process the duration of the transaction and the corresponding volume of orders. The model is motivated by the fact that the "excitation" of …
This study aims to identify the leading of inflation indicators of monetary policy in DRC. The results reveal that the most relevant inflation indicators usually come from the monetary origin than the real sector. Variance decomposition analyzes place in the foreground the rate of exchange, the money supply and the pub…
Reciprocating interactions represent a central feature of all human exchanges. They have been the target of various recent experiments, with healthy participants and psychiatric populations engaging as dyads in multi-round exchanges such as a repeated trust task. Behaviour in such exchanges involves complexities relate…
A new method for online prediction uncertainty quantification in non-exchangeable panel data.
We respond to the issues discussed by Farmer and Lillo (FL) related to our proposed approach to understanding the origin of power-law distributions in stock price fluctuations. First, we extend our previous analysis to 1000 US stocks and perform a new estimation of market impact that accounts for splitting of large ord…
We present some stylized facts exhibited by the time series of returns of the Mexican Stock Exchange Index (IPC) and compare them to a sample of both developed (USA, UK and Japan) and emerging markets (Brazil and India). The period of study is 1997-2011. The stylized facts are related mostly to the probability distribu…
Study validates low latency's impact on trading profits.