A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
IUS framework predicts EUR/USD exchange rate with improved accuracy.
The team predicts foreign exchange rates using clustering and attention models.
Two methods are proposed to filter correlations in DCC-GARCH residuals for foreign exchange rates.
This paper compares traditional econometric and contemporary machine/deep learning techniques for forecasting foreign exchange rates.
Fast, global, and sensitively reacting to political, economic and social events of any kind, these are attributes that social media like Twitter share with foreign exchange markets. The leading assumption of this paper is that information which can be distilled from public debates on Twitter has predictive content for …
The paper models exchange rate risk premium using mean-reverting dynamics.
Graph learning improves FXRP and FXSA with significant statistical arbitrage gains.
Paper detects anomalous edges in social networks using edge exchangeability.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
EXFormer predicts foreign exchange returns with high accuracy using a multi-scale self-attention mechanism and dynamic variable selection.
Simple models outperformed sophisticated ones in forecasting Turkish lira exchange rates.
Neural ARFIMA model improves exchange rate forecasting for BRIC economies.
Study improves forex forecasting accuracy using machine learning models.
We propose a useful approach for investigating the statistical properties of foreign currency exchange rates. Our approach is based on queueing theory, particularly, the so-called renewal-reward theorem. For the first passage processes of the Sony Bank US dollar/Japanese yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate, we evaluate the ave…
We study the dynamics of the linear and non-linear serial dependencies in financial time series in a rolling window framework. In particular, we focus on the detection of episodes of statistically significant two- and three-point correlations in the returns of several leading currency exchange rates that could offer so…
Study uses high-frequency data to predict ruble depreciation during crisis.
RegPred Net forecasts foreign exchange rates with improved accuracy and interpretability.
Modeling DEX liquidity with heterogeneous LPs and MEV bots.
The paper addresses errors in online selective conformal prediction and proposes new strategies to ensure valid inference.
This paper reports empirical evidence that a neural networks model is applicable to the statistically reliable prediction of foreign exchange rates. Time series data and technical indicators such as moving average, are fed to neural nets to capture the underlying "rules" of the movement in currency exchange rates. The …
In this paper, we introduce a matrix-valued time series model for foreign exchange market. We then formulate trading matrices, foreign exchange options and return options (matrices), as well as on-line portfolio strategies. Moreover, we attempt to predict returns of portfolios by developing a cross rate method. This le…
This paper examines the relationship between Inverse Perpetual Swap contracts, a Bitcoin derivative akin to futures and the margin funding interest rates levied on BitMEX. This paper proves the Heteroskedastic nature of funding rates and goes onto establish a causal relationship between the funding rates and the Bitcoi…
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
Spectral Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Structured Non-Exchangeable Data
We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular…
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
In the paper, the pricing of Quanto options is studied, where the underlying foreign asset and the exchange rate are correlated with each other. Firstly, we adopt Bayesian methods to estimate unknown parameters entering the pricing formula of Quanto options, including the volatility of stock, the volatility of exchange…
We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clus…
Proposes non-exchangeable conformal risk control for better uncertainty bounds.
We study the tick dynamical behavior of the yen-dollar exchange rate using the rescaled range analysis in financial market. It is found that the multifractal Hurst exponents with the short and long-run memory effects can be obtained from the yen-dollar exchange rate. This exists one crossover for the Hurst exponents at…
This paper proposes new GARCH models for cryptocurrency volatility, showing skewed distributions improve prediction accuracy.
The gauge theory of arbitrage was introduced by Ilinski in [arXiv:hep-th/9710148] and applied to fast money flows in [arXiv:cond-mat/9902044]. The theory of fast money flow dynamics attempts to model the evolution of currency exchange rates and stock prices on short, e.g.\ intra-day, time scales. It has been used to ex…
An Entropic Dynamics of exchange rates is laid down to model the dynamics of foreign exchange rates, FX, and European Options on FX. The main objective is to represent an alternative framework to model dynamics. Entropic inference is an inductive inference framework equipped with proper tools to handle situations where…
It is assumed that under suitable economic and information-theoretic conditions, market exchange rates are free from arbitrage. Commodity markets in which trades occur over a complete graph are shown to be trivial. We therefore examine the vector space of no-arbitrage exchange rate ensembles over an arbitrary connected…
The currency carry trade is the investment strategy that involves selling low interest rate currencies in order to purchase higher interest rate currencies, thus profiting from the interest rate differentials. This is a well known financial puzzle to explain, since assuming foreign exchange risk is uninhibited and the …
A new method for time-series data provides guaranteed coverage and adapts to non-exchangeable data.
Paper adapts ACI for online multi-step time-series forecasting with coverage guarantees.
Financial Times Series such as stock price and exchange rates are, often, non-linear and non-stationary. Use of decomposition models has been found to improve the accuracy of predictive models. The paper proposes a hybrid approach integrating the advantages of both decomposition model (namely, Maximal Overlap Discrete …
Wavelet denoised-ResNet with LightGBM predicts Forex rate of change.
Siegel's paradox is a fundamental question in international finance about exchange rates for futures contracts and has puzzled many scholars for over forty years. The unorthodox approach presented in this article leads to an arbitrage-free solution which is invariant under currency re-denominations and is symmetric, as…
In this paper we investigate the scaling behavior of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is found to exhibit a persistent scaling…
On Jan. 1, 1999 the European Union introduced a common currency Euro (), to become the legal currency in all eleven countries which form the . In order to test the behavior and understand various features, the exchange rate is artificially extrapolated back to 1993 by a linear superposition of the…
Study shows demonetization strengthened Indian currency and stock market.
Study examines USD exchange rate dynamics using Kramers-Moyal expansion.
Study compares RNN, LSTM, and BP neural networks for forex rate prediction.
C-SymmPI provides near-conditional coverage for structured data with group symmetries.