This paper compares AMMs and LOBs in exchange mechanisms, formalizing complexity vs. expressiveness trade-offs.
problem Designing efficient exchange mechanisms between assets.
method Formalizes a complexity-approximation trade-off for CFMMs and LOBs, introducing an exchange complexity measure.
result Optimally expressive mechanisms can be designed with minimal complexity, allowing for arbitrary demand curves.
Bayesian methods often misinterpret data and asymptotic concepts.
problem Misunderstandings in Bayesian predictive inference.
method Discussion of two specific misunderstandings.
result Consequences of misinterpretations illustrated through examples.
Unified framework for representation and causal structure learning using exchangeable data.
problem Identifying latent representations or causal structures in non-i.i.d. data.
method Identifiable Exchangeable Mechanisms (IEM) framework for representation and structure learning.
result New insights and identifiability results for causal structure and representation learning.
This paper examines allocation mechanisms in markets with transfer costs, showing how these costs affect economic efficiency.
problem Transfer costs in decentralized exchange markets reduce economic efficiency.
method An axiomatic study of allocation mechanisms in the presence of transfer costs, providing robust and conditional mean allocation mechanisms.
result Robust and conditional mean allocation mechanisms are identified, relating to risk sharing in agent pools.
The paper proves ADL mechanisms face a trilemma and optimizes them for fairness, revenue, and exchange solvency.
problem The impossibility of a perpetual futures exchange achieving solvency, revenue, and fairness.
method Formal model of ADL, proving trilemma, and analyzing three ADL mechanisms.
result Optimized ADL mechanisms can reduce trader losses while maintaining exchange solvency.
We discuss the equivalence between kinetic wealth-exchange models, in which agents exchange wealth during trades, and mechanical models of particles, exchanging energy during collisions. The universality of the underlying dynamics is shown both through a variational approach based on the minimization of the Boltzmann e…
Order matching systems form the backbone of modern equity exchanges, used by millions of investors daily. Thus, their operation is strictly controlled through numerous regulatory directives to ensure that markets are fair and transparent. Despite these efforts, market manipulation remains an open problem. In this work,…
Study finds price impact follows a 'double' square-root law, suggesting mechanical origin.
problem Understanding the origin of price impact in markets.
method Detailed dataset of Tokyo Stock Exchange orders, analyzing single and metaorders.
result Price impact follows a 'double' square-root law, indicating mechanical origin rather than information.
Blockchain-based exchanges adopt based on token pair volatility and personal use.
problem Token value loss and arbitrage issues in decentralized exchanges.
method Investigation of Automated Market Makers (AMMs) using transaction-level data.
result AMMs are adopted for high personal use or highly correlated token price movements.
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index IS…
New method identifies causal structure in exchangeable data.
problem Existing causal discovery methods struggle with i.i.d. data.
method Exchangeable data provides richer conditional independence structure.
result Exchangeable data allows for unique causal structure identification.
Study finds significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges after FTX collapse.
problem Quantifying trust dynamics and redistribution between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
method Interdisciplinary approach combining causal inference and computational text analysis.
result Significant price declines and capital reallocation from centralized to decentralized exchanges following the FTX collapse.
We discuss several multi-agent models that have their origin in the kinetic exchange theory of statistical mechanics and have been recently applied to a variety of problems in the social sciences. This class of models can be easily adapted for simulations in areas other than physics, such as the modeling of income and …
EXFormer predicts foreign exchange returns with high accuracy using a multi-scale self-attention mechanism and dynamic variable selection.
problem Accurately forecasting daily exchange rate returns in international finance.
method EXFormer uses a multi-scale trend-aware self-attention mechanism with dynamic variable selection and embedded squeeze-and-excitation blocks.
result EXFormer outperforms other models in forecasting daily exchange rate returns, achieving statistically significant improvements in directional accuracy.
A class of conserved models of wealth distributions are studied where wealth (or money) is assumed to be exchanged between a pair of agents in a population like the elastically colliding molecules of a gas exchanging energy. All sorts of distributions from exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) to something like Gamma distribut…
Gradient descent (GD) is known to converge quickly for convex objective functions, but it can be trapped at local minima. On the other hand, Langevin dynamics (LD) can explore the state space and find global minima, but in order to give accurate estimates, LD needs to run with a small discretization step size and weak …
Validates conformal prediction for network data under non-uniform sampling.
problem Validity of conformal prediction for network data under non-representative sampling.
method Interprets sampling mechanisms as selection rules, studies validity conditional on selection events, uses permutation invariance and joint exchangeability.
result Finite-sample validity of conformal prediction for certain selection events and asymptotic validity for random walk sampling.
Study improves forecasting in betting markets using novel neural networks.
problem Improving short-term price movement predictions in betting exchanges.
method Innovative convolutional attention mechanisms applied to recurrent neural networks and bi-dimensional layers.
result All proposed innovations positively impact classification task performance.
Automated market-making for CBDCs and stable coins on blockchain.
problem Creating fair exchange rates for digital assets on blockchain.
method Developed an innovative approach for generating fair exchange rates.
result Illustrated the approach's efficacy on G-10 currency exchange rates.
Formally verifies fairness and uniformity in financial market trades.
problem Ensuring fairness and uniformity in automated trading systems.
method Formal definition and verification in Coq proof assistant.
result Properties of double-sided auction mechanisms verified.
Blockchain MEV is unaffected by ordering changes.
problem Maximizing arbitrage opportunities on blockchain exchanges.
method Formalized MEV, proved invariance under certain conditions.
result Maximal extractable value is invariant under changes in ordering mechanism.
The abstract discusses financial irreversibility using quantum mechanics and projective geometry.
problem Financial irreversibility and its limitations in trading strategies.
method Projective geometry and Taylor expansion of directed distance in quantum systems.
result Fundamental asymmetry under state exchange is a key factor in financial irreversibility.
Study explores how wealth dynamics change with preferential interactions in kinetic exchange models.
problem Investigate how preferential interactions affect wealth dynamics and distributions in kinetic exchange models.
method Conducted Monte Carlo simulations to explore two types of preferential interactions: one with random selection and another with wealth difference constraint.
result Emergence of quasi-oligarchic societies and segregation into economic classes observed in preferential interactions.
This research compiles knowledge on decentralized exchanges with AMM protocols.
problem Improving and developing AMM-based decentralized exchanges.
method Established a general AMM framework, compared mechanics, discussed security and privacy.
result Illustrated conservation and slippage functions of AMM protocols.
Study factors affecting liquidity on decentralized exchanges, introducing new metrics.
problem Understanding and predicting liquidity on decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Analyzes platform, blockchain, token pair, and liquidity pool factors; introduces new metrics.
result Identifies how various factors affect liquidity through concentration and total value locked.
Centralized exchanges influence staking behavior and decentralization in Proof of Stake blockchain ecosystems.
problem How do centralized exchanges affect staking behavior and decentralization in Proof of Stake blockchain ecosystems?
method Formulate a continuous-time mean field model of miners as validators and traders in a centralized market.
result Centralized trading activities enhance staking participation and promote decentralization through market incentives.
New neural model processes 2D data with long-range dependencies efficiently.
problem Limited receptive field of convolutions for complex 2D tasks.
method Proposes Matrix Shuffle-Exchange network with O(logn) layers and O(n2logn) complexity. result Exceeds convolutional and graph neural network baselines in long-range dependency modeling.
SVAR-LiNGAM reveals causal order in crypto-asset markets.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between spot rates and crypto-assets.
method Applied SVAR-LiNGAM to analyze spot exchange rates and crypto-asset exchange rates.
result Causal order found: EUR_USD spot rate -> Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> Ripple.
Concentration of infinitely exchangeable sequences with bounded-difference constants
problem Quantifying uncertainty in AI benchmarks
method Using a mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound
result Tight, mixture-free Hoeffding-type bound for zero-sum linear contrasts
We have discovered 12 independent new empirical scaling laws in foreign exchange data-series that hold for close to three orders of magnitude and across 13 currency exchange rates. Our statistical analysis crucially depends on an event-based approach that measures the relationship between different types of events. The…
Proposes a new method for completing swap cycles in decentralized exchanges.
problem Completing swap cycles in decentralized exchanges efficiently and without slippage.
method Introduces an asset matrix formulation to verify and complete CoW cycles using graph traversal and imbalance correction.
result Demonstrates efficient discovery and insertion of synthetic orders for atomic cycle closure.
Optimizes cryptocurrency exchanges' risk management by reducing positions based on leverage.
problem Managing risk in cryptocurrency futures exchanges during large price moves.
method Formulates ADL as an optimization problem to minimize risk of loss, using a water-filling rule to equalize leverage.
result The optimal ADL policy minimizes maximum leverage among participants, providing a transparent and implementable benchmark.
Optimal design of automated market makers for decentralized exchanges.
problem Maximizing utility for liquidity providers in decentralized exchanges.
method Modeling a risk-averse liquidity provider's optimal strategy and the optimal design of automated market makers.
result The optimal unit trading fee increases with asset volatility.
Privacy-preserving crypto exchanges adjust prices based on Gaussian noise.
problem Ensuring fair pricing in privacy-preserving cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Derive Kyle equilibrium with Gaussian noise perturbation, rescaling price-impact and strategy factors.
result Identify a privacy subsidy as a transfer from LP pool to traders, invariant to noise.
Many recent models of trade dynamics use the simple idea of wealth exchanges among economic agents in order to obtain a stable or equilibrium distribution of wealth among the agents. In particular, a plain analogy compares the wealth in a society with the energy in a physical system, and the trade between agents to the…
New framework models non-exchangeable networks with latent orders and graphons.
problem Modeling non-exchangeable network data with complex dependencies.
method Latent orders and graphon-based approach for adjacency matrix probabilities.
result Consistent estimation and clustering of latent network structure.
This paper studies liquidity providers in decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding how liquidity providers behave in DEXes.
method Analyzed operations on Uniswap, measured investment strategy, returns, and risks.
result Liquidity providers benefit from transaction fees and determine their strategy based on market changes.
We study the problem of what causes prices to change. We define the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and its it informational impact as the remainder of the total impact once mechanical impact is removed. We introduce a method o…
Study compares Web3 tokens to traditional assets, finding similar statistical properties.
problem Understanding statistical properties of Web3 tokens compared to traditional financial assets.
method Statistical analysis of various Web3 tokens across multiple time scales, comparing with traditional financial assets.
result Most Web3 tokens exhibit similar stylized facts to traditional financial assets, including heavy tails and volatility clustering.
We report statistical regularities of the opening and closing auctions of French equities, focusing on the diffusive properties of the indicative auction price. Two mechanisms are at play as the auction end time nears: the typical price change magnitude decreases, favoring underdiffusion, while the rate of these events…
BBE simulates betting exchanges to generate synthetic data for AI research.
problem Lack of real data for AI/ML in betting exchanges.
method Agent-based simulation model of a sports-betting exchange.
result Generates large, high-resolution synthetic data for AI/ML.
Paper presents a new approach to continuum mechanics using port-Hamiltonian framework.
problem Geometric formulation of solid and fluid mechanics.
method Port-Hamiltonian framework, Dirac structures, Hamiltonian reduction theory.
result Systematic derivation of port-Hamiltonian models for solid and fluid mechanics.
Study finds discrepancies in open interest reporting for Bitcoin perpetual swaps.
problem Misquoted open interest in perpetual swaps leads to liquidity and solvency concerns.
method Analyzed tick-by-tick data from seven exchanges to identify discrepancies.
result Open interest reported by exchanges varies widely, some implausible.
New sampler tackles complex discrete energy landscapes efficiently.
problem Stagnation in gradient-based discrete samplers for non-convex settings.
method DREXEL sampler with Replica Exchange and Adjusted Metropolis.
result Proves samplers satisfy detailed balance and converge to target distribution.
Any discussion on exchange rate movements and forecasting should include explanatory variables from both the current account and the capital account of the balance of payments. In this paper, we include such factors to forecast the value of the Indian rupee vis a vis the US Dollar. Further, factors reflecting political…
This study compares price discovery in ETH and BTC markets between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding price discovery dynamics in cryptocurrency markets.
method Comparative analysis of centralized and decentralized exchanges, using econometric tools.
result Centralized exchanges lead in ETH price discovery, while futures markets lead in BTC.
Unihedge uses HTAX to create unlimited liquidity in prediction markets.
problem Limited liquidity and information incorporation issues in prediction markets.
method Introduces HTAX prediction markets with DPM derivatives and new incentive mechanisms.
result Unlimited liquidity and improved information incorporation in prediction markets.
In this work, we propose an order book model with herd behavior. The proposed model is built upon two distinct approaches: a recent empirical study of the detailed order book records by Kanazawa et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 120, 138301] and financial herd behavior model. Combining these approaches allows us to propose a mo…