In statistical learning theory, convex surrogates of the 0-1 loss are highly preferred because of the computational and theoretical virtues that convexity brings in. This is of more importance if we consider smooth surrogates as witnessed by the fact that the smoothness is further beneficial both computationally- by at…
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48 results for “excess loss”
Study excess risk in statistical inference with transformations.
problem Excess risk in estimating random variables from feature vectors and transformations.
method Characterize lossless transformations, develop test statistics, and information-theoretic bounds.
result Strongly consistent partitioning test statistic for lossless transformations.
We study differentially private (DP) algorithms for stochastic convex optimization (SCO). In this problem the goal is to approximately minimize the population loss given i.i.d. samples from a distribution over convex and Lipschitz loss functions. A long line of existing work on private convex optimization focuses on th…
Study non-asymptotic bounds for robust estimators under misspecified models.
problem Evaluate performance of robust estimators under adversarial conditions.
method Propose a general approach to adversarial risk analysis, including investigations on generalization and approximation errors.
result Establish non-asymptotic upper bounds for adversarial excess risk under Lipschitz loss functions.
Paper establishes a universal growth rate for smooth surrogate losses in classification.
problem Analyzing growth rates of consistency bounds for various surrogate losses.
method Proves square-root growth rate for smooth margin-based losses; extends to multi-class classification.
result Demonstrates a universal square-root growth rate for smooth comp-sum and constrained losses.
This research improves PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks using convexified loss.
problem Deriving generalization bounds for classification tasks with non-convex loss functions.
method Shift focus to misclassification excess risk bounds for PAC-Bayesian classification using convex surrogate loss and leveraging PAC-Bayesian relative bounds in expectation.
result Improved PAC-Bayesian bounds for classification tasks with convex surrogate loss.
The overarching goal of this paper is to derive excess risk bounds for learning from exp-concave loss functions in passive and sequential learning settings. Exp-concave loss functions encompass several fundamental problems in machine learning such as squared loss in linear regression, logistic loss in classification, a…
We study online aggregation of the predictions of experts, and first show new second-order regret bounds in the standard setting, which are obtained via a version of the Prod algorithm (and also a version of the polynomially weighted average algorithm) with multiple learning rates. These bounds are in terms of excess l…
Full-batch GD achieves generalization close to any stationary point with fewer assumptions.
problem Generalization and excess risk bounds for smooth losses, including non-Lipschitz and nonconvex cases.
method Path-dependent analysis of GD's generalization error, focusing on optimization error and stability.
result Generalization error is tightly bound in terms of optimization error and iteration count, bypassing common assumptions.
We use a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) to model market fluctuation data from times when traders experience excessive losses or excessive profits. We analytically derive "superstatistics" that accurately model empirical market activity data (supplied by Bogachev, Ludescher, Tsallis, and Bunde)that exhibit transitio…
New method estimates model risk without knowing function class.
problem Evaluating model risk for complex, opaque models.
method Wild refitting with Bregman losses and randomized symmetrization.
result Valid upper bound on excess risk for opaque models.
In this paper, we study an insurer's reinsurance-investment problem under a mean-variance criterion. We show that excess-loss is the unique equilibrium reinsurance strategy under a spectrally negative Lévy insurance model when the reinsurance premium is computed according to the expected value premium principle. Furthe…
Improves statistical learning bounds with self-concordant losses.
problem Statistical prediction with nuisance components.
method Orthogonal statistical learning with self-concordant loss.
result Non-asymptotic bounds on excess risk improved by a dimension factor.
We present new excess risk bounds for general unbounded loss functions including log loss and squared loss, where the distribution of the losses may be heavy-tailed. The bounds hold for general estimators, but they are optimized when applied to -generalized Bayesian, MDL, and empirical risk minimization estimators. …
We develop a model for contagion in reinsurance networks by which primary insurers' losses are spread through the network. Our model handles general reinsurance contracts, such as typical excess of loss contracts. We show that simpler models existing in the literature--namely proportional reinsurance--greatly underesti…
The paper optimizes insurance strategies for two collaborating business lines.
problem Maximizing dividends and managing risk for two collaborating business lines.
method Closed-form solutions for optimal strategies, including dividend payout, reinsurance, and capital injection.
result Optimal strategies involve pure excess-of-loss reinsurance and transferring reserves to prevent ruin.
Second-order methods improve differential privacy in convex optimization.
problem Improving differential privacy in convex optimization.
method Developed a private variant of the regularized cubic Newton method for strongly convex loss functions.
result Achieves quadratic convergence and optimal excess loss for strongly convex loss functions.
Study uses spectral risk for learning with heavy-tailed data.
problem Learning with heavy-tailed loss distributions.
method Spectral risk with Lipschitz-continuous density, derivative-free learning.
result Excess risk guarantees and improved performance over traditional methods.
Improved DP SO with large Lipschitz parameters, handling outliers and heavy-tailed data.
problem Differential privacy in stochastic optimization with large Lipschitz parameters.
method Assumes bounded k-th order moments, provides linear-time algorithms for smooth convex and non-smooth convex losses.
result Improved risk bounds scaling with k-th moment, not uniform Lipschitz parameter.
New DP algorithm improves privacy and efficiency for convex optimization.
problem Efficient, DP algorithms for convex optimization with strong excess risk bounds.
method Output perturbation for a broad class of tilted loss functions.
result Near optimal DP excess risk and runtime bounds for convex optimization.
A Universal Trade-off Between the Model Size, Test Loss, and Training Loss of Linear Predictorsstat.ML
The study finds a trade-off between model size, test loss, and training loss for linear predictors.
problem Finding the optimal balance between model size, test loss, and training loss for linear predictors.
method Established an algorithm and distribution-independent trade-off using non-asymptotic analysis.
result Models with low test loss are either classical (close to noise level training loss) or modern (large number of parameters).
Non-Euclidean Differentially Private Stochastic Convex Optimization: Optimal Rates in Linear Timecs.LG
New algorithm achieves optimal privacy and efficiency in non-Euclidean convex optimization.
problem Optimizing convex functions while maintaining privacy in non-Euclidean settings.
method Developed a linear-time algorithm for -setups, leveraging geometric properties.
result Optimal excess risk achieved in linear time for .
A Geometric Analysis of PCAmath.ST
The paper analyzes the excess risk of PCA and provides a precise characterization.
problem Understanding the excess risk of principal component analysis (PCA).
method Established a central limit theorem for PCA error and derived the excess risk distribution.
result Obtained a non-asymptotic upper bound on the excess risk of PCA.
Paper introduces robust kernel ridge regression using Cauchy loss for handling various noise types.
problem Developing robust regression methods for noisy data.
method Introduces kernel Cauchy ridge regressor (KCRR) using Cauchy loss function.
result Establishes almost minimax-optimal convergence rate for KCRR in terms of -risk.
This paper improves risk bounds and calibration for smart predict-then-optimize method.
problem Improving risk bounds and calibration for smart predict-then-optimize method.
method Develops risk bounds and uniform calibration results for the SPO+ loss relative to the SPO loss.
result Empirical minimizer of the SPO+ loss achieves low excess true risk with high probability.
Recursive PAC-Bayes: A Frequentist Approach to Sequential Prior Updates with No Information Losscs.LG
New PAC-Bayes method updates priors without losing confidence information.
problem Lack of sequential prior updates in PAC-Bayes without losing confidence information.
method Recursive PAC-Bayes decomposition of expected loss.
result Sequential prior updates with no information loss.
New bounds show polyhedral surrogates are optimal for generalization.
problem Proving generalization rates for polyhedral loss functions.
method Developed two general results for polyhedral surrogates.
result Polyhedral surrogates provide linear surrogate regret bounds, translating directly to target rates.
Paper tackles robust deep learning from weakly dependent data with unbounded loss and input.
problem Tackles robust deep learning from weakly dependent data with unbounded loss and input.
method Establishes non-asymptotic bounds for expected excess risk under strong mixing and -weak dependence assumptions.
result Derives a relationship between bounds and , and shows convergence rate close to i.i.d. results for .
This paper analyzes neural network classifiers' performance in binary classification.
problem Performance of neural network classifiers in binary classification problems.
method Plug-in classifiers based on neural networks, considering a more general function class and surrogate loss.
result Dimension-free, uniform rate of convergence for the excess risk of neural networks, showing minimax optimality.
We consider binary classification problems with positive definite kernels and square loss, and study the convergence rates of stochastic gradient methods. We show that while the excess testing loss (squared loss) converges slowly to zero as the number of observations (and thus iterations) goes to infinity, the testing …
Study optimizes prediction intervals in conformal regression.
problem Optimizing the length of prediction intervals in conformal regression.
method Introduces EffOrt and Ad-EffOrt methodologies to minimize interval length.
result Demonstrates theoretical and empirical improvements over classical methods.
New algorithms achieve optimal DP convex optimization with linear time and gradient computations.
problem Private stochastic convex optimization with optimal excess loss.
method Two new techniques: variable batch sizes and localization with stable optimization.
result Achieves optimal bound on excess loss with gradient computations.
Optimal private ERM and SCO with subquadratic gradient complexity.
problem Private optimization of non-smooth convex functions.
method Subquadratic gradient complexity algorithm using subsampling and smoothing.
result Achieved optimal excess empirical risk and population loss.
Optimizes differentially private kernel learning with random projection.
problem Privacy-preserving learning algorithms with optimal performance.
method Differentially private kernel ERM algorithm based on random projection in reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result Achieves minimax-optimal excess risk rates for various loss functions.
Developing a climate-aware pricing framework for XL reinsurance and CAT bonds under non-stationary catastrophe risk.
problem Pricing excess-of-loss (XL) reinsurance and catastrophe (CAT) bonds under climate uncertainty.
method Modeling catastrophe arrivals as a Cox process with a temperature-dependent stochastic intensity and aggregate losses following a compound Cox structure.
result Climate dependence materially changes the loss-generation mechanism and affects the valuation of catastrophe-linked contracts.
Optimal insurance contracts are designed to screen risk preferences and risk types under asymmetric information.
problem Designing optimal insurance contracts under asymmetric information and risk types.
method Constructing a menu of contracts that maximizes mean-variance utilities, subject to truth-telling constraints.
result Equilibrium contracts exhibit nonlinear pricing with decreasing risk loadings, inducing self-selection.
The study quantifies decision-making risks from suboptimal classifiers and proposes methods to reduce these risks.
problem Excess risk in decision-making from suboptimal probabilistic classifiers.
method Analytical expressions and upper/lower bounds for excess risk, calibration curve estimation, grouping loss estimator.
result Identifies regimes where recalibration alone or post-training is more effective.
The paper develops a deep neural network estimator for weakly dependent processes with various loss functions.
problem Learning weakly dependent processes with a broad class of loss functions.
method Sparse-penalized deep neural networks with -weak dependence structure and -coefficients.
result Oracle inequalities for the excess risk of the sparse-penalized deep neural networks estimators.
Study of estimation errors in surrogate loss minimizers, providing stronger guarantees than existing methods.
problem Estimation errors in surrogate loss minimizers for various hypothesis sets.
method Detailed study of -consistency estimation error bounds, proving general theorems for distribution-dependent and independent settings.
result Explicit bounds for zero-one and adversarial losses, showing enhancements under distributional assumptions.
This paper aims to provide a better understanding of a symmetric loss. First, we emphasize that using a symmetric loss is advantageous in the balanced error rate (BER) minimization and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) maximization from corrupted labels. Second, we prove general theoretical p…
Excessive leverage, i.e. the abuse of debt financing, is considered one of the primary factors in the default of financial institutions. Systemic risk results from correlations between individual default probabilities that cannot be considered independent. Based on the structural framework by Merton (1974), we discuss …
Paper relaxes SGD privacy and generalization guarantees for non-smooth convex losses.
problem Privacy and generalization in SGD for non-smooth convex losses.
method Relaxes Lipschitz and strong smoothness assumptions to Hölder smoothness, proving -DP and optimal excess risk.
result Noisy SGD with -Hölder smooth losses achieves optimal excess risk with linear gradient complexity for .
The paper analyzes the generalization of deep neural networks for metric and similarity learning.
problem Lack of rigorous understanding of generalization performance in metric and similarity learning.
method Derive explicit form of true metric, construct structured deep ReLU neural network, establish excess risk bounds.
result Explicit excess risk bounds for metric and similarity learning are derived.
We study the optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance problem when both the intensity of the claims arrival process and the claim size distribution are influenced by an exogenous stochastic factor. We assume that the insurer's surplus is governed by a marked point process with dual-predictable projection affected by an envir…
In this paper, we study an optimal excess-of-loss reinsurance and investment problem for an insurer in defaultable market. The insurer can buy reinsurance and invest in the following securities: a bank account, a risky asset with stochastic volatility and a defaultable corporate bond. We discuss the optimal investment …
We give improved constants for data dependent and variance sensitive confidence bounds, called empirical Bernstein bounds, and extend these inequalities to hold uniformly over classes of functionswhose growth function is polynomial in the sample size n. The bounds lead us to consider sample variance penalization, a nov…
Improved algorithm reduces excess risk in selective learning.
problem Selective learning with windowed model selection.
method Hybrid Exponential Weights Algorithm and bounded-recall ERM.
result Achieves expected excess risk of O((log log |L| + log log n) / log n).
This work analyzes fairness-accuracy trade-offs using causal methods.
problem Discriminatory behavior in machine learning systems based on sensitive characteristics.
method Introduces path-specific excess loss (PSEL) and causal fairness/utility ratio to quantify trade-offs.
result Shows how enforcing fairness constraints can reduce discrimination while increasing loss.