Develops a neural model to predict event occurrence and timing.
problem Standard event time models ignore the distinction between event occurrence probability and predicted time.
method Introduces a conditional event time model using a neural network with a binary stochastic layer.
result Shows superior event occurrence and timing predictions on various datasets.
Paper proposes a new trading strategy using corporate event detection from news articles.
problem Predicting stock movements based on corporate events from news articles.
method Bi-level event detection model: low-level for token-level event identification, high-level for article-level event identification.
result The proposed strategy outperforms existing models in stock prediction metrics.
Bayesian model improves categorization of explosions from sparse data.
problem Challenges in categorizing explosions from limited data.
method Bayesian update to Event Categorization Matrix model with Bayesian Decision Theory.
result Consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates.
LOBDIF predicts limit order book events using a diffusion model.
problem Predicting the timing and type of events in a dynamic market system.
method LOBDIF uses a diffusion model to learn the complex time-event distribution in limit order book streams.
result LOBDIF significantly outperforms existing methods in real-world data experiments.
Modeling solar ramping events with spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Predicting solar ramping events influenced by weather conditions.
method Novel spatio-temporal categorical point process model.
result Effective modeling of spatio-temporal correlations in solar ramping events.
We present a novel hierarchical distance-dependent Bayesian model for event coreference resolution. While existing generative models for event coreference resolution are completely unsupervised, our model allows for the incorporation of pairwise distances between event mentions -- information that is widely used in sup…
Neural model uses deductive database to predict events from past patterns.
problem Difficulty in predicting future events from past patterns when event types are large.
method Temporal deductive database with rules to prove facts from other facts and past events. Neural nets model fact states and probabilities.
result Neural models derived from concise Datalog programs improve prediction by encoding domain knowledge.
Proposes a deep neural network for event intensity estimation.
problem Modeling irregular event sequences with historical dependencies.
method Non-parametric deep neural network with multi-channel RNN and fake event epochs.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on model fitting tasks.
Events are happening in real-world and real-time, which can be planned and organized occasions involving multiple people and objects. Social media platforms publish a lot of text messages containing public events with comprehensive topics. However, mining social events is challenging due to the heterogeneous event elem…
We present ProxiModel, a novel event mining framework for extracting high-quality structured event knowledge from large, redundant, and noisy news data sources. The proposed model differentiates itself from other approaches by modeling both the event correlation within each individual document as well as across the cor…
Modern health data science applications leverage abundant molecular and electronic health data, providing opportunities for machine learning to build statistical models to support clinical practice. Time-to-event analysis, also called survival analysis, stands as one of the most representative examples of such statisti…
Study examines HTE estimation from time-to-event data with competing events.
problem Estimating HTEs from time-to-event data with competing events.
method Outcome modeling approach using plug-in estimators for potential outcomes.
result Competing events introduce new challenges for HTE estimation.
This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.
problem Traditional Hawkes process intensity function's parametrized kernel function biases future event predictions.
method Uses neural models to model the kernel function of Hawkes process intensity function.
result Neural models can better capture future event characteristics using past events data.
Models predict fire and other emergencies in Edmonton.
problem Accurate prediction of emergency events for timely response.
method Data collection, descriptive analysis, feature selection, and negative binomial regression.
result Models perform well, with acceptable prediction errors for weekly and monthly periods.
Proposes a model for predicting events from event streams.
problem Predicting events like part replacement and failure in manufacturing and teleservice systems.
method Non-parametric prognostic framework using MGCP modulated Poisson processes.
result MGCP prior facilitates sharing of information and analysis of flexible event patterns.
Survey on modeling event sequences through temporal processes.
problem Modeling phenomena with sequences of events over continuous time.
method Probabilistic models based on point processes, categorized into simple, marked, and spatio-temporal.
result Analysis of existing approaches and their applicability to prediction and modeling.
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
Many events occur in the world. Some event types are stochastically excited or inhibited---in the sense of having their probabilities elevated or decreased---by patterns in the sequence of previous events. Discovering such patterns can help us predict which type of event will happen next and when. We model streams of d…
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm …
CAUSE learns Granger causality from event sequences, outperforming existing methods.
problem Learning Granger causality from complex, interdependent event sequences.
method CAUSE uses a neural point process to capture interdependency and an attribution method to extract Granger causality.
result CAUSE outperforms state-of-the-art methods in inferring inter-type Granger causality.
Financial event studies often misestimate causal effects due to misspecified factor models.
problem Misspecification of factor models in financial event studies leads to inconsistent estimates of causal effects.
method Proposed synthetic control methods to construct replicating portfolios from control securities.
result Synthetic control methods provide more accurate estimates of causal effects in event studies.
Considering event structure information has proven helpful in text-based stock movement prediction. However, existing works mainly adopt the coarse-grained events, which loses the specific semantic information of diverse event types. In this work, we propose to incorporate the fine-grained events in stock movement pred…
Proposes a non-conjugate model selection method for chain event graphs.
problem Existing model selection algorithms for chain event graphs rely on conjugate priors, which is unrealistic for many real-world applications.
method Proposes a mixture modelling approach to model selection in chain event graphs that does not rely on conjugacy.
result The proposed method is more scalable and robust than existing algorithms.
A deep neural network detects sleep events in polysomnograms with high accuracy.
problem Manual scoring of sleep events in clinical analysis is inconsistent and time-consuming.
method A single deep neural network architecture trained on 1653 recordings for joint detection of arousals, leg movements, and sleep disordered breathing.
result Joint detection of sleep events yields higher accuracy compared to separate models, and correlates well with manual annotations.
Model compresses event-like contexts using gated surprise signals.
problem Perceiving a dynamic world as organized events.
method Hierarchical, surprise-gated recurrent neural network architecture.
result Achieves best performance on multiple event processing tasks.
Models for predicting the time of a future event are crucial for risk assessment, across a diverse range of applications. Existing time-to-event (survival) models have focused primarily on preserving pairwise ordering of estimated event times, or relative risk. Model calibration is relatively under explored, despite it…
Traditional event detection classifies a word or a phrase in a given sentence for a set of predefined event types. The limitation of such predefined set is that it prevents the adaptation of the event detection models to new event types. We study a novel formulation of event detection that describes types via several k…
Neural network model predicts alternating event-free periods.
problem Dynamic prediction of alternating recurrent events with statistical nuance.
method Developed an online dynamic prediction framework using neural network theory.
result Outstanding performance in predicting alternating recurrent event-free time.
Click through rate (CTR) prediction is very important for Native advertisement but also hard as there is no direct query intent. In this paper we propose a large-scale event embedding scheme to encode the each user browsing event by training a Siamese network with weak supervision on the users' consecutive events. The …
We present the Infinite Latent Events Model, a nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian distribution over infinite dimensional Dynamic Bayesian Networks with binary state representations and noisy-OR-like transitions. The distribution can be used to learn structure in discrete timeseries data by simultaneously inferring a s…
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
problem Modeling event dynamics with changing trends over time.
method Sequential latent variable model with dynamic latent graphs.
result Higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types.
Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categor…
stCEG models spatial events using Chain Event Graphs in R.
problem Modeling events over spatial areas.
method Full specification of CEG models from data, interactive plots, web GUI.
result First software for CEGs with full model customisation.
A new framework generates high-dimensional event sequences efficiently.
problem Challenges in modeling high-dimensional marked temporal point processes.
method Conditional generator that learns from event history.
result Superior performance compared to existing methods.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
Generative model simulates rare events for better decision making.
problem Rare events impact decision making but are hard to sample.
method Normalizing Flow coupled with Importance Sampling.
result Accurate estimation of rare events improves decision outcomes.
A new method improves few-shot event classification accuracy.
problem Few-shot event classification for unseen event types.
method Extensively exploit matching information in the support set during training.
result Improves event classification accuracy by up to 10%.
TransformerLSR models longitudinal, recurrent, and survival data jointly.
problem Joint modeling of longitudinal measurements, recurrent events, and survival data with dependencies.
method Transformer-based deep learning framework integrating deep temporal point processes and latent structure representation.
result TransformerLSR effectively models all three components simultaneously, demonstrating necessity and effectiveness through simulations and real-world data.
Clinical outcome prediction based on the Electronic Health Record (EHR) plays a crucial role in improving the quality of healthcare. Conventional deep sequential models fail to capture the rich temporal patterns encoded in the longand irregular clinical event sequences. We make the observation that clinical events at a…
Harmoniums model multiple time-to-event variables in survival analysis.
problem Survival analysis with multiple, independently censored time-to-event variables and missing observations.
method Energy-based approach with bi-partite structure (harmoniums).
result Harmoniums capture non-linear patterns between time recordings.
New model for multivariate discrete event data with flexible interactions.
problem Modeling multivariate discrete event data with categorical interactions.
method Developed a new modeling approach with convex constraints, two estimation procedures (LS and ML).
result Proposed model can capture arbitrary shapes of historical event influence.
This monograph introduces deep learning models for predicting time-to-event outcomes.
problem Predicting critical events and their timing from time series data.
method Neural networks and deep learning models for survival analysis.
result Improved accuracy in predicting time-to-event outcomes using deep learning.
Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior to event prediction, lack a principled mechanism to account for the uncertainty…
Calibrates Hawkes models for market events, revealing power-law feedback kernels.
problem Estimating the influence of past events and price changes on future market events.
method Proposes a calibration procedure for Quadratic Hawkes models, analyzing the kernel components.
result Empirically calibrated kernel components reveal power-law behavior, suggesting system near critical point.
Improved neural models for diverse user event sequences.
problem Challenges in modeling diverse user event sequences.
method Mixtures of latent embeddings with amortized variational inference.
result Systematic improvements over existing work for various predictive metrics.
SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.
problem Predicting first hitting times for intermittent events with monotonicity guarantees.
method Partially monotonic neural network for sequential events, incorporating unobserved events.
result SurvSurf outperforms existing models in MSE and IBS metrics.
Anticipatory model generates music with control over events.
problem Controlling symbolic music generation.
method Interleaving event and control sequences to predict future events.
result Anticipatory model matches autoregressive models in performance and can infill control tasks.
In complex processes, various events can happen in different sequences. The prediction of the next event given an a-priori process state is of importance in such processes. Recent methods have proposed deep learning techniques such as recurrent neural networks, developed on raw event logs, to predict the next event fro…