A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A framework for analyzing financial systems under scenario constraints.
ISA learns subgoals for reinforcement learning agents.
Click through rate (CTR) prediction is very important for Native advertisement but also hard as there is no direct query intent. In this paper we propose a large-scale event embedding scheme to encode the each user browsing event by training a Siamese network with weak supervision on the users' consecutive events. The …
Train track automata for fully irreducible elements in Out(F_r).
Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time inte…
Predicts clinical events using a landmark approach with machine learning for large biomarker histories.
Study immersions of punctured 4-manifolds for quantum automata applications.
Quantum cellular automata form a homology theory.
A new method detects and removes false trailing balances in credit data.
Study examines Bitcoin's price history and identifies recurring events.
The availability of a large amount of electronic health records (EHR) provides huge opportunities to improve health care service by mining these data. One important application is clinical endpoint prediction, which aims to predict whether a disease, a symptom or an abnormal lab test will happen in the future according…
We obtain an index of the complexity of a random sequence by allowing the role of the measure in classical probability theory to be played by a function we call the generating mechanism. Typically, this generating mechanism will be a finite automata. We generate a set of biased sequences by applying a finite state auto…
This document investigates the integration of adaptive distinguishing sequences into the process of active automata learning (AAL). A novel AAL algorithm "ADT" (adaptive discrimination tree) is developed and presented. Since the submission of the original thesis, the presented algorithm has been integrated into LearnLi…
We present a probabilistic model of events in continuous time in which each event triggers a Poisson process of successor events. The ensemble of observed events is thereby modeled as a superposition of Poisson processes. Efficient inference is feasible under this model with an EM algorithm. Moreover, the EM algorithm …
We propose a general framework to describe the impact of different events in the order book, that generalizes previous work on the impact of market orders. Two different modeling routes can be considered, which are equivalent when only market orders are taken into account. One model posits that each event type has a te…
We present an interactive version of an evidence-driven state-merging (EDSM) algorithm for learning variants of finite state automata. Learning these automata often amounts to recovering or reverse engineering the model generating the data despite noisy, incomplete, or imperfectly sampled data sources rather than optim…
Automaton models are often seen as interpretable models. Interpretability itself is not well defined: it remains unclear what interpretability means without first explicitly specifying objectives or desired attributes. In this paper, we identify the key properties used to interpret automata and propose a modification o…
Market impact is a key concept in the study of financial markets and several models have been proposed in the literature so far. The Transient Impact Model (TIM) posits that the price at high frequency time scales is a linear combination of the signs of the past executed market orders, weighted by a so-called propagato…
Paper verifies RNNs using automata learning and model checking.
Designs a Cellular Automata rule for forming touching loop patterns.
CURIE uses cellular automata to detect concept drift in data streams.
Transformers simulate finite-state automata with fewer layers.
Classifies knots in the Poincaré sphere, using fixed points and folding automata.
DeepSynth synthesizes automata to guide deep RL agents through sparse, non-Markovian rewards.
LUNAR uses cellular automata for real-time data classification in fast streams.
Algorithm extracts deterministic PDFA from probabilistic models with improved performance.
Develops model-free methods for event history analysis and efficient covariate adjustment.
A new framework generates high-dimensional event sequences efficiently.
Machine learning provides algorithms that can learn from data and make inferences or predictions on data. Stochastic acceptors or probabilistic automata are stochastic automata without output that can model components in machine learning scenarios. In this paper, we provide dynamic programming algorithms for the comput…
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
This paper explores neural models to improve modeling of Hawkes process intensity functions.
Recent progress in applying machine learning for jet physics has been built upon an analogy between calorimeters and images. In this work, we present a novel class of recursive neural networks built instead upon an analogy between QCD and natural languages. In the analogy, four-momenta are like words and the clustering…
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
We show how well known rules of back propagation arise from a weighted combination of finite automata. By redefining a finite automata as a predictor we combine the set of all -state finite automata using a weighted majority algorithm. This aggregated prediction algorithm can be simplified using symmetry, and we pro…
New models predict future events with uncertainty.
The logic of uncertainty is not the logic of experience and as well as it is not the logic of chance. It is the logic of experience and chance. Experience and chance are two inseparable poles. These are two dual reflections of one essence, which is called co~event. The theory of experience and chance is the theory of c…
Recurrent neural networks are a widely used class of neural architectures. They have, however, two shortcomings. First, it is difficult to understand what exactly they learn. Second, they tend to work poorly on sequences requiring long-term memorization, despite having this capacity in principle. We aim to address both…
In the present work we introduce a stochastic cellular automata model in order to simulate the dynamics of the stock market. A direct percolation method is used to create a hierarchy of clusters of active traders on a two dimensional grid. Active traders are characterised by the decision to buy, (+1), or sell, (-1), a …
Data of practical interest - such as personal records, transaction logs, and medical histories - are sequential collections of events relevant to a particular source entity. Recent studies have attempted to link sequences that represent a common entity across data sets to allow more comprehensive statistical analyses a…
New model captures time and mark inter-dependence in TPPs.
DDP models dynamic comorbidity networks from event data.
We develop a novel algorithm to predict the occurrence of major abdominal surgery within 5 years following Crohn's disease diagnosis using a panel of 29 baseline covariates from the Swedish population registers. We model pseudo-observations based on the Aalen-Johansen estimator of the cause-specific cumulative incidenc…
New method quantifies resilience of electric distribution systems from historical data.
While the long-ranged correlation of market orders and their impact on prices has been relatively well studied in the literature, the corresponding studies of limit orders and cancellations are scarce. We provide here an empirical study of the cross-correlation between all these different events, and their respective i…
In this paper, we present a framework for fitting multivariate Hawkes processes for large-scale problems both in the number of events in the observed history and the number of event types (i.e. dimensions). The proposed Low-Rank Hawkes Process (LRHP) framework introduces a low-rank approximation of the kernel m…
In this paper, we unravel a fundamental connection between weighted finite automata~(WFAs) and second-order recurrent neural networks~(2-RNNs): in the case of sequences of discrete symbols, WFAs and 2-RNNs with linear activation functions are expressively equivalent. Motivated by this result, we build upon a recent ext…
Dual neural network architecture improves accuracy and interpretability.
The paper presents an algorithm to determine discreteness of certain groups.