Framework evaluates AI proposals for drug discovery, finds no LLM advantage.
problem No principled framework exists for evaluating AI-guided scientific selection under budget constraints.
method Formally verified metric (BSDS/DQS) penalizes false discoveries and excessive abstention.
result LLMs provide no marginal value over existing classifiers in drug discovery.
New method optimizes costly functions with unknown costs and budget constraints.
problem Optimizing functions with unknown and heterogeneous evaluation costs under a budget constraint.
method Budgeted multi-step expected improvement acquisition function.
result Our method outperforms existing approaches in various synthetic and real problems.
Estimates model performance based on compute budget and evaluates stability over time.
problem Understanding how model performance evolves with compute budget and stability over time.
method Large-scale observational evaluations, prescriptive scaling laws, smoothed quantile regression, I-optimal sampling algorithm.
result Estimates attainable accuracies and stability of model performance over time.
Bayesian optimization with directionally constrained search improves efficiency within a budget.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with limited computational resources.
method Directionally constrained search to allocate model capability efficiently.
result Our approach outperforms in finding the optimum within a prescribed evaluation budget.
SIREN protocol corrects optimistic winner's scores in LLM evaluation.
problem Optimistic winner's scores in LLM evaluation due to adaptive benchmarking.
method SIREN protocol that freezes post-search shortlist, separates selection and evaluation, and uses bootstrap for uncertainty quantification.
result SIREN provides valid confidence intervals for procedure-performance curves and deployment conclusions.
A heuristic method refines search space for Bayesian optimization with low budget.
problem Efficiently optimize objective function with limited evaluation budget.
method Divide search space into promising regions to refine Bayesian optimization.
result Bayesian optimization with proposed method outperforms standard Bayesian optimization.
Optimizes budgeted evaluations of LLMs by allocating queries to judges efficiently.
problem Evaluating LLMs with heterogeneous judges and varying costs and reliability.
method Formalizes and analyzes budgeted heteroskedastic multi-judge estimation, proposing EST-IVWE for practical implementation.
result EST-IVWE matches the oracle IVWE rate up to lower-order terms in the budget and is instance-optimal.
MPC outperforms reactive budgeting in non-stationary return environments.
problem Optimizing budget allocation under non-stationary returns.
method Receding-horizon Model Predictive Control (MPC) compared to reactive policies.
result MPC consistently outperforms reactive budgeting when return dynamics are predictable.
DSA efficiently allocates sparsity across layers for budgeted pruning.
problem Efficiently distributing resources (sparsity) across layers in pruning under resource constraints.
method DSA uses differentiable pruning to find continuous layer-wise pruning ratios via gradient-based optimization.
result DSA achieves superior performance and significantly reduces the time cost of pruning.
Optimizes crowdsourced preference-based subjective evaluation with online learning.
problem Large-scale evaluation of generative media using crowdsourcing due to combinatorial explosion.
method Automatic optimization of pair combination selections and evaluation volumes with online learning.
result Optimizes evaluation by reducing pair combinations and allocating optimal evaluation volumes.
Bridges uplift modeling and sequential decision-making with online budget allocation.
problem Treatment allocation under budget constraints in digital advertising.
method Budget-Constrained Causal Bandits (BCCB) integrates learning, exploration, and budget pacing.
result Data-efficiency crossover: BCCB operates effectively from the first user, 3-5x lower performance variance.
Optimizes RTB bidding without exploration, improving performance under various budgets.
problem Lack of clear evaluation and generalization issues in RTB systems.
method Maximum entropy principle and conditional independence structures to train a model that generalizes to unseen budget conditions.
result Significantly improved performance under various budget settings compared to baselines.
A new portfolio method uses NMF for risk budgeting, outperforming classical methods.
problem Portfolio diversification and risk management in crypto and traditional assets.
method Risk factor budgeting using convex Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NMF).
result Our method outperforms classical portfolio allocations in diversification and risk profile.
Efficiently allocate budgets for LLM-assisted virtual screening to reduce costs.
problem Reducing the cost of evaluating alternatives in large-scale screening tasks.
method Propose a top-m greedy evaluation mechanism and the EFG-m algorithm for efficient budget allocation. result Prove that EFG-m is both sample-optimal and consistent in large-scale virtual screening. The paper tackles budget allocation for multiple campaigns using a novel combinatorial bandit approach.
problem Maximizing cumulative returns with limited budgets across various ad lines.
method Formulated as a multi-task combinatorial bandit problem, integrates Bayesian hierarchical models, and uses Thompson sampling.
result Demonstrates robustness and adaptability in maximizing overall cumulative returns.
This paper quantifies privacy loss in exploratory data analysis.
problem Privacy loss in exploratory data analysis is often overlooked in privacy budgets.
method Quantitative analysis of privacy loss for statistical functions.
result Privacy loss must be considered in calculating machine learning privacy budgets.
Framework uses hindsight regret to audit marketing budget allocations.
problem Lack of principled way to assess strategic budget allocations.
method Hindsight regret framework based on constraint-faithful benchmark.
result Identifies practical trade-off between allocation flexibility and detectability.
This paper compares self-reflection and budget tuning for LLMs, revealing domain-specific performance gains.
problem Improving inference-time performance of LLMs without retraining, balancing quality, cost, and latency.
method Systematic comparison of self-reflection and budget tuning across mathematical reasoning and translation tasks, evaluating various LLMs and model families.
result Substantial domain-dependent variation in self-reflection effectiveness, with up to 220% performance gains in mathematical reasoning.
CogScale benchmarks AI architectures for sequential processing.
problem Evaluating AI architectures' ability to process sequential information efficiently.
method 14 scalable synthetic tasks designed to isolate cognitive and memory abilities at different scales.
result Attention mechanisms and modern state-space models consistently maintain high performance as task difficulty scales.
Study compares high-dimensional BO algorithms on 24 functions.
problem Challenges in optimizing high-dimensional problems with BO.
method Comparison of five BO algorithms on 24 BBOB functions at varying dimensions.
result BO outperforms CMA-ES for limited evaluations, trust regions show promise.
ECP optimizes expensive functions without knowing Lipschitz constant.
problem Optimizing expensive, non-convex functions with unknown Lipschitz constants.
method ECP minimizes evaluations by focusing on potentially optimal regions, eliminating Lipschitz constant estimation.
result Guaranteed no-regret performance and minimax-optimal regret bounds.
Study evaluates quantum and classical conditional Boltzmann machines for time-series forecasting.
problem Time-series forecasting using quantum and classical conditional Boltzmann machines.
method Developed and compared four conditional energy-based forecasting architectures: Gaussian-Bernoulli CRBM, QCRBM, QQRBM, and QFeatureQRBM. Evaluated using symmetric hyperparameter optimisation.
result No systematic evidence of a quantum advantage in time-series forecasting at the available sample size.
In this paper we propose a fast online Kernel SVM algorithm under tight budget constraints. We propose to split the input space using LVQ and train a Kernel SVM in each cluster. To allow for online training, we propose to limit the size of the support vector set of each cluster using different strategies. We show in th…
Adam is the most practical optimizer, especially in low-budget scenarios.
problem Evaluating optimizers' performance without considering hyperparameter tuning costs.
method Evaluated a variety of optimizers on standard datasets and architectures, accounting for hyperparameter tuning costs.
result Adam is the most practical solution, especially in low-budget scenarios.
Optimal strategy identified for minimizing regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
problem Minimizing expected simple regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
method Two-Stage (TS)-Hirano-Imbens-Ridder (HIR) strategy using HIR estimator.
result TS-HIR strategy is asymptotically minimax optimal.
Box Thirding identifies the best arm efficiently under limited samples.
problem Efficiently identifying the best arm with limited sampling.
method Iterative ternary comparison of arms, discarding the weakest and exploring the best.
result Achieves comparable performance to Successive Halving with less predefined parameters.
Cost-aware BO minimizes function evaluations with varying costs.
problem Optimization with varying evaluation costs in expensive functions.
method Cost Apportioned Bayesian Optimization (CArBO) combining initial and cost-cooled phases.
result CArBO finds better hyperparameter configurations with the same cost budget.
PromptEval estimates LLM performance across many prompts, improving reproducibility.
problem Limited prompt templates affect LLM benchmark reproducibility.
method Estimates performance distribution across many prompts using borrowed strength.
result PromptEval accurately estimates performance quantiles with practical budget.
This work makes neural sequence models more efficient by controlling computation.
problem Fixed compute for all examples in neural networks.
method Conditional computation to adapt compute to example complexity.
result Conditional Computation Transformer (CCT) improves efficiency and performance.
Thinking LLMs struggle with stock prediction, especially as data complexity increases.
problem Evaluating the performance of 'thinking' LLMs in stock prediction, especially under varying levels of cross-sectional complexity.
method Rolling 48m/1m walk-forward evaluation, comparing direct LLMs, TLLMs, and classical learners on cross-sectional ranking loss, MSE, and backtests with transaction costs.
result TLLMs' ranking quality deteriorates as cross-sectional complexity grows, while direct LLMs remain stable.
Paper introduces a privacy-preserving line search method for optimization.
problem Optimization performance depends on step size tuning, which is difficult and privacy-sensitive.
method Introduces a stochastic adaptive line search algorithm that satisfies differential privacy.
result The algorithm efficiently uses privacy budget and outperforms existing private optimizers.
A new protocol evaluates small machine learning improvements conservatively.
problem Uncertainty in small gains reported in machine learning papers.
method Paired bootstrap protocol with BCa confidence intervals and sign-flip permutation tests.
result Conservative evaluation reduces over-claiming of small improvements.
A new first-order sampler improves diffusion probabilistic model sampling quality.
problem The belief that first-order methods are inherently slower for diffusion probabilistic model sampling.
method A novel training-free, first-order sampler that approximates the forward-value evaluation via a one-step lookahead predictor.
result The proposed sampler provably approximates the ideal forward-value trajectory while retaining first-order convergence and can improve sample quality under the same NFE budget.
Quantum kernels show no advantage in stock return prediction, but differ in stability metrics.
problem Determining if quantum kernels improve stock return prediction.
method Controlled horse race on Chinese A-share market with identical training subsamples and tuning budgets.
result Quantum kernels do not outperform classical RBF controls in cross-sectional stock return prediction.
Opportunistic spectrum access is one of the emerging techniques for maximizing throughput in congested bands and is enabled by predicting idle slots in spectrum. We propose a kernel-based reinforcement learning approach coupled with a novel budget-constrained sparsification technique that efficiently captures the envir…
We address the problem of finding the maximizer of a nonlinear smooth function, that can only be evaluated point-wise, subject to constraints on the number of permitted function evaluations. This problem is also known as fixed-budget best arm identification in the multi-armed bandit literature. We introduce a Bayesian …
This paper optimizes ad bids and daily budgets for multiple campaigns in pay-per-click advertising.
problem Optimizing ad bids and daily budgets for multiple campaigns in pay-per-click advertising.
method Formulated as a combinatorial semi-bandit problem, solved using Gaussian Processes and four algorithms.
result Regret upper bounded as O(sqrt{T}), where T is the time horizon.
We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our extensions to Bayesian optimization use the information learnt from this model to guide…
Novel Bayesian optimization framework improves portfolio management stability and efficiency.
problem Stable and sample-efficient optimization for black-box portfolio models under limited observation budgets.
method TPE-AS framework with adaptive scheduling and importance sampling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness across four backtest settings with three distinct models.
TRIPLE efficiently optimizes prompts with a budget constraint.
problem Efficiently selecting good prompts from a pool of candidates.
method TRIPLE connects prompt optimization to best arm identification in MAB, leveraging BAI-FB tools.
result TRIPLE outperforms baselines on multiple tasks with limited budget constraints.
In situations like tax declarations or analyzes of household budgets we would like to automatically evaluate credibility of exogenous variable (declared income) based on some available (endogenous) variables - we want to build a model and train it on provided data sample to predict (conditional) probability distributio…
POCA optimizes hyperparameters with adaptive allocation for faster convergence.
problem Optimizing hyperparameters for machine learning models.
method Adaptive allocation of computational budget using Bayesian sampling.
result POCA finds strong configurations faster than its competitors.
Efficient method for generating adversarial examples with limited query budget.
problem Developing black-box adversarial attacks with limited information.
method Bayesian Optimization in a structured low-dimensional subspace.
result Significantly higher attack success rate with fewer queries.
We propose a cost-effective framework for preference elicitation and aggregation under the Plackett-Luce model with features. Given a budget, our framework iteratively computes the most cost-effective elicitation questions in order to help the agents make a better group decision. We illustrate the viability of the fram…
PAC-MCTS addresses biased search in LLM-guided planning by dynamically pruning.
problem Systematic biases in LLMs lead to inefficient and unsafe search in deep planning tasks.
method Formulates node expansion as BAI under bounded bias, derives sample complexity bounds, and proposes PAC-MCTS for dynamic confidence bounds.
result PAC-MCTS improves robustness and efficiency by up to 78% fewer API evaluations and 3x higher sample efficiency.
Private cancer prediction model trained on federated genomic data.
problem Train a private cancer prediction model on federated genomic data.
method Differentially private federated learning (FL) for genomic cancer prediction.
result Ranked 3rd in a competition for private cancer prediction.
Benchmarking recursive collapse claims with a new framework under false-positive control.
problem Evaluating recursive systems for failure patterns and warning claims.
method Developed Loopzero framework for testing recursive failures, specified claim boundaries in Lean, evaluated under FP constraint, and compared with standard detectors.
result No standard detectors or Loopzero's pre-registered quantile detector achieved the required operating point under the false-positive contract.
Online media provides opportunities for marketers through which they can deliver effective brand messages to a wide range of audiences. Advertising technology platforms enable advertisers to reach their target audience by delivering ad impressions to online users in real time. In order to identify the best marketing me…