We prove new improved endpoint, , , estimates (the "kink point") for eigenfunctions on manifolds of nonpositive curvature. We do this by using energy and dispersive estimates for the wave equation as well as new improved , , bounds of Blair and the author \cite{BSTop}, \…
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,695 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “estimator improvement”
New estimate for complex Monge-Ampère equations improves previous results.
problem Improving estimates for complex Monge-Ampère equations.
method Using the ABP maximum principle to prove a new gradient estimate.
result Proves a new gradient estimate for complex Monge-Ampère equations.
Improved quantile estimation model for VaR.
problem Improving quantile estimation under distribution estimation.
method Develops a compensatory model with a penalty term to control convergence error.
result Significant improvement in VaR performance.
Improved Strichartz estimates for Schrödinger equation on negatively curved manifolds.
problem Improving Strichartz estimates for Schrödinger equation on negatively curved compact manifolds.
method Analyzing the Schrödinger equation on negatively curved compact manifolds, obtaining improved Strichartz estimates.
result Improved Strichartz estimates, including no-loss estimates for hyperbolic surfaces.
Paper improves uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge systems.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge frameworks.
method Generalised probabilistic modelling and improved uncertainty estimates.
result Proposed uncertainty estimates significantly improve system efficiency.
Proposes a new method to estimate Bayesian neural network depth.
problem Estimating the depth of Bayesian neural networks.
method Uses a discrete truncated normal distribution to learn depth mean and variance, inferring posterior distributions by minimizing variational free energy.
result Improves test accuracy and reduces posterior depth variance on the spiral dataset.
The paper improves energy decay estimates for Dir-stationary Q-valued functions and applies them to Liouville-type theorems and continuity.
problem Improving energy decay estimates for Dir-stationary Q-valued functions.
method Establishing improved decay estimates and applying them to derive Liouville-type theorems and continuity.
result Dir-stationary Q-valued functions exhibit the Lebesgue property and reside in a generalized Campanato-Morrey space.
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
Extended study improves covariance matrix estimation for portfolio managers.
problem Limited sample sizes and poor performance of PCA estimator in high-dimensional returns.
method Developed a more general shrinkage framework targeting further information.
result Improves the PCA estimator of beta by shrinking it toward a target.
Improved estimates for singularities in capillary surfaces.
problem Understanding the singularities of minimizing capillary hypersurfaces.
method Improved estimates based on connections to the one-phase Bernoulli problem.
result The singular set is of codimension at least 4, improving for specific angles.
Improved spectral projection estimates on manifolds of non-positive curvature.
problem Estimating spectral projections on manifolds with non-positive curvature.
method New spectral projection estimates, including sharp ones for tori, using pointwise estimates and microlocal Kakeya-Nikodym estimates.
result Stronger and more precise spectral projection estimates, including new sharp estimates for tori.
Improved bounds for discrete probability distribution estimation under the ℓ∞ norm.
problem Estimating discrete probability distributions under the ℓ∞ norm with improved bounds.
method Minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds.
result Resolved open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025), including a fully empirical tightest risk bound and identifying the worst-case extremal distribution.
Neural estimator improves mutual information estimation in high dimensions.
problem Estimating mutual information in high dimensions is challenging.
method Parametrizing conditional densities with normalizing flows and using block autoregressive structure.
result Improved mutual information estimation on benchmark tasks.
Improved bounds for estimating discrete distributions in KL divergence.
problem Estimating discrete distributions in KL divergence with accuracy.
method Used Laplace estimator and established concentration bounds.
result Deviation from mean scales as for .
Estimates MLDS using tensor decomposition, improving upon existing methods.
problem Learning mixtures of linear dynamical systems from input-output data.
method Proposes a moment-based estimator using tensor decomposition.
result Improves sample complexity bounds for estimating MLDS.
Improved Kuznecov remainder estimates for generic metrics.
problem Estimating period integrals of Laplace eigenfunctions on manifolds.
method Two-term asymptotic expansion and elimination of oscillatory second term.
result Improved remainder estimates for Baire-generic metrics.
Paper improves parameter estimation of continuous distributions using preference feedback.
problem Improving parameter estimation of continuous distributions.
method Preference-based M-estimators and deterministic preferences.
result Preference-based estimators achieve an estimation error scaling of O(1/n), significantly faster than sample-only methods.
Improved IV estimates by weighting on compliance reduces noise in treatment effect estimation.
problem Noisy IV estimates in settings with non-random treatment receipt.
method Weighting observations by estimated compliance, leveraging machine learning for compliance estimation.
result Compliance weighting reduces IV variance, improving precision of treatment effect estimates.
BASIS: Batchwise Advantage Estimation from Single-Rollout Information Sharing for LLM Reasoningcs.LG
BASIS improves LLM reasoning by sharing batchwise rollout info, reducing MSE by 69%.
problem Improving large language model reasoning with limited rollouts and batch information.
method BASIS samples only one rollout per prompt but uses batch information to improve value function estimation.
result BASIS reduces MSE in value function estimation by 69% compared to REINFORCE++.
Develops framework for estimating and improving DTRs with time-varying IV in the presence of unmeasured confounding.
problem Estimating DTRs from observational data with unmeasured confounding.
method Time-varying instrumental variable (IV) framework for estimating and improving DTRs.
result IV-optimal and IV-improved DTRs perform better than DTRs assuming no unmeasured confounding.
Improved heat equation estimates without gradient curvature assumption.
problem Improving Hamilton's matrix Harnack estimate for heat equation without gradient curvature assumption.
method New ingredients include a sharp Li-Yau estimate, a suitable vector field construction, and integral arguments.
result Removed the gradient curvature assumption in Hamilton's estimate for heat equation.
Novel framework improves GNN uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
problem Improving reliability of GNN uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.
method Adapting stochastic data centering to graph data through novel graph anchoring strategies.
result G-UQ leads to better calibrated GNNs for node and graph classification.
Improved ridge estimators avoid tuning parameters for high-dimensional data.
problem Difficulty in calibrating tuning parameters for ridge estimators.
method Developed modified ridge estimators that eliminate tuning parameters.
result Modified ridge estimators outperform standard methods in prediction accuracy.
The inaccuracy of neural network models on inputs that do not stem from the training data distribution is both problematic and at times unrecognized. Model uncertainty estimation can address this issue, where uncertainty estimates are often based on the variation in predictions produced by a diverse ensemble of models …
Improved estimation of higher order integrals using shrinkage techniques.
problem Estimating higher order Bochner integrals in non-parametric settings.
method Shrinkage of U-statistic towards a target element, considering kernel degeneracy.
result Consistent shrinkage estimators with fast rates of convergence, even for non-degenerate kernels.
Improved KernelSHAP via linear regression for ML model interpretation.
problem Efficiently estimating Shapley values in model-agnostic settings.
method Revisiting KernelSHAP via linear regression, developing techniques for convergence and uncertainty.
result Original KernelSHAP incurs negligible bias for significant variance reduction.
The use of improved covariance matrix estimators as an alternative to the sample estimator is considered an important approach for enhancing portfolio optimization. Here we empirically compare the performance of 9 improved covariance estimation procedures by using daily returns of 90 highly capitalized US stocks for th…
Improved confidence interval estimation with control variates.
problem Estimating confidence intervals with minimal samples.
method Designing an estimation algorithm using control variates and leveraging order statistics.
result Improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing algorithms.
New tests for distributional causal effects using improved kernel estimators.
problem Testing for higher-order moments and multidimensional outcomes affected by treatment.
method Improved kernel estimators based on doubly robust mean embeddings.
result New permutation-based tests for distributional causal effects with improved convergence rates.
Lie PCA improves density estimation on symmetric manifolds.
problem Density estimation for symmetric manifolds.
method Spectral method to approximate Lie algebra of symmetry group.
result Improved sample complexity and density estimation on various data sets.
Improved Strichartz estimates for Schrödinger equation on manifolds with nonpositive curvature.
problem Improving Strichartz estimates for Schrödinger equation on compact manifolds with nonpositive sectional curvature.
method Improved global kernel estimates for microlocalized operators exploiting geometric assumptions.
result No-loss -estimates on intervals of length for all admissible pairs .
Improvement guarantees for semi-supervised classifiers can currently only be given under restrictive conditions on the data. We propose a general way to perform semi-supervised parameter estimation for likelihood-based classifiers for which, on the full training set, the estimates are never worse than the supervised so…
Geometric method improves uncertainty estimation in real-time.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in machine learning models.
method Geometric distance from training inputs for uncertainty estimation, post-hoc calibration.
result Method yields better uncertainty estimations than existing approaches.
DBQPG improves policy gradient estimation with fewer samples.
problem Accurate policy gradient estimation with limited samples.
method Deep Bayesian Quadrature Policy Gradient (DBQPG).
result DBQPG provides more accurate and less variable gradient estimates.
Simple method improves uncertainty estimation for distribution shifts.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in deep image classification under distribution shifts.
method Exposing original model to corrupted images and performing simple statistical calibration.
result Superior performance on various distribution shifts and unsupervised domain adaptation tasks.
Improves neural network estimates using IFs without needing more data.
problem Bias and lack of flexibility in neural network models.
method MultiNet and MultiStep methods using Influence Functions.
result Improves model robustness and facilitates statistical inference without additional data.
Improved volume estimates for right-angled polyhedra in hyperbolic space.
problem Estimating volumes of right-angled polyhedra in hyperbolic space.
method Combining Andreev theorem and Atkinson's results, improved upper volume estimates.
result Upper volume estimates for both compact and ideal right-angled polyhedra improved.
The paper improves DR estimators for off-policy evaluation in contextual bandits.
problem Challenges in evaluating policies with adaptively collected data.
method Adaptive weighting to control variance in DR estimators.
result Improved t-statistic based on the estimator is asymptotically normal.
Note removes degeneracy in Kähler geometry estimates.
problem Estimating diameter and inequalities in Kähler geometry with degeneracy.
method Technical improvement of earlier results.
result Established diameter, Green's functions, and Sobolev inequalities without small degeneracy assumption.
Compressed Counting (CC) [22] was recently proposed for estimating the ath frequency moments of data streams, where 0 < a <= 2. CC can be used for estimating Shannon entropy, which can be approximated by certain functions of the ath frequency moments as a -> 1. Monitoring Shannon entropy for anomaly detection (e.g., DD…
We propose a supervised anomaly detection method based on neural density estimators, where the negative log likelihood is used for the anomaly score. Density estimators have been widely used for unsupervised anomaly detection. By the recent advance of deep learning, the density estimation performance has been greatly i…
What is the most statistically efficient way to do off-policy evaluation and optimization with batch data from bandit feedback? For log data generated by contextual bandit algorithms, we consider offline estimators for the expected reward from a counterfactual policy. Our estimators are shown to have lowest variance in…
We show that one can obtain logarithmic improvements of geodesic restriction estimates for eigenfunctions on 3-dimensional compact Riemannian manifolds with constant negative curvature. We obtain a gain for the -restriction bounds, which improves the corresponding bounds of Burq, Gérard …
The paper improves density estimation in high dimensions using tensor decompositions.
problem Density estimation struggles in high-dimensional data due to the curse of dimensionality.
method The paper uses nonnegative tensor decompositions to simplify dependence assumptions and estimate marginal distributions.
result Theoretical results show that restricting estimation to low-rank nonnegative PARAFAC or Tucker decompositions removes the dimensionality exponent on bin width rates.
Measuring Mutual Information (MI) between high-dimensional, continuous, random variables from observed samples has wide theoretical and practical applications. Recent work, MINE (Belghazi et al. 2018), focused on estimating tight variational lower bounds of MI using neural networks, but assumed unlimited supply of samp…
New method improves online covariance estimation for SGD.
problem Improving online covariance estimation for SGD.
method Proposes a de-biased covariance estimator that eliminates second-order derivatives.
result Achieves a convergence rate of , outperforming existing methods.
In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and out-of-distribution samples. Our contributions include a) demonstrating and adapting to …
Relying on recent advances in statistical estimation of covariance distances based on random matrix theory, this article proposes an improved covariance and precision matrix estimation for a wide family of metrics. The method is shown to largely outperform the sample covariance matrix estimate and to compete with state…