Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

178357535713 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for error decay prediction

Paper develops an online learning algorithm for functional data models.

problem Recovering slope functions or predictors in functional data models.
method Online regularized learning algorithm in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces with polynomially decaying step-size.
result Established fast convergence rates for estimation error without capacity assumption.

Study derives error decay rates for kernel classification under source and capacity conditions.

problem Understanding prediction error decay rates for real data sets.
method Derived decay rates for misclassification error under Gaussian design for SVM and ridge classification.
result Rates accurately describe learning curves for data sets satisfying source and capacity conditions.

The study analyzes prediction errors in systems with memory kernels, providing bounds and stability results.

problem Prediction errors in stochastic dynamical systems with memory kernels.
method Analysis of generalized Langevin equations (GLEs) with Volterra equations, integrating synchronized noise coupling and weighted norms.
result Prediction discrepancies decay at a rate determined by the memory kernel's decay, quantitatively bounded by kernel estimation errors.

Proposes a method to improve deep active learning for NER tasks.

problem Weaknesses of existing deep active learning algorithms in practice.
method Estimates error decay curves of feature-defined subsets to improve sampling efficiency and robustness.
result Significantly outperforms diversification-based methods for black-box NER taggers and makes sampling more robust to labeling noise.

Analyzes dynamics of quantum neural networks, predicting exponential decay of training error.

problem Understanding convergence rate of quantum neural networks training.
method Analytic theory for gradient descent dynamics of wide quantum neural networks.
result Simple analytic formula predicts exponential decay of training error.

New model predicts links in community-based networks robustly.

problem Link prediction in community-based networks with local clustering errors.
method Markov Stochastic Block Model (MSBM) with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) predictions.
result Misclassification error decays exponentially with relevant signal-to-noise ratio (SNR).

Paper uses AI to predict medications from medical codes, improving accuracy in healthcare.

problem Predicting medications from incomplete or incorrect medical codes is challenging.
method Robust Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with decay mechanism and noise injection.
result The method accurately predicts medication orders from contaminated medical codes.

The study examines Kernel Ridge Regression error rates across noiseless and noisy conditions.

problem Characterizing Kernel Ridge Regression error rates in different noise levels.
method Unified analysis of Kernel Ridge Regression under various noise and regularization conditions.
result A crossover from noiseless to noisy error rates is observed as sample complexity increases.

This paper extends neural collapse to regression problems, revealing key features and structures.

problem Understanding the structure learned by deep neural networks in regression tasks.
method Established Neural Regression Collapse (NRC) across different models, analyzing feature and weight alignments.
result Deep neural regression models exhibit a collapsed feature space, aligning with target dimensions and covariances.

Theoretical justification for deep networks' performance with regularization techniques.

problem Understanding the performance of deep networks trained with the square loss.
method Analysis of gradient flow and theoretical justification of regularization techniques.
result Convergence to solutions with smaller Frobenius norms leads to better classification error bounds.

We analyze two communication-efficient algorithms for distributed statistical optimization on large-scale data sets. The first algorithm is a standard averaging method that distributes the NN data samples evenly to $\nummac$ machines, performs separate minimization on each subset, and then averages the estimates. We p…

2012-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper predicts and explains the decay of stock anomaly performance over time.

problem Predicting and explaining the drop in risk-adjusted performance of stock anomalies.
method The authors propose ex-ante characteristics based on hypotheses of out-of-sample decay and in-sample overfitting.
result The year of publication explains 30% of the variance in Sharpe decay across factors.

We informally call a stochastic process learnable if it admits a generalization error approaching zero in probability for any concept class with finite VC-dimension (IID processes are the simplest example). A mixture of learnable processes need not be learnable itself, and certainly its generalization error need not de…

2013-09-19abs ↗pdf ↗

New approach uses Gaussian processes to learn and track complex systems with guaranteed accuracy.

problem Inaccurate first principle models for complex systems due to data complexity.
method Bayesian prediction error bound for Gaussian process regression, derived from kernel-based data density.
result Achieves vanishing tracking error with increasing data density, providing time-varying accuracy guarantees.

Study reveals phase transition in neural networks near interpolation.

problem Understanding generalization and learning transitions in neural networks.
method Effective theory for approximating Bayes-optimal generalisation error.
result Unveils a discontinuous phase transition between universal and specialisation phases.

Adam's generalization performance is improved by batch size and weight decay in neural networks.

problem Understanding how batch size and weight decay affect Adam's generalization in neural networks.
method Theoretical analysis of two-layer over-parameterized CNNs on image data.
result Adam's mini-batch variants can achieve near-zero test error, unlike full-batch Adam.

We found that factors decay over time, with momentum fitting best.

problem Understanding how factors decay over time and their impact on performance.
method Derived a hyperbolic decay model for factors, tested against linear and exponential alternatives.
result Momentum exhibits hyperbolic decay, outperforming linear and exponential models.

We find a deterministic equivalent for random feature regression's test error, independent of feature map dimension.

problem Understanding the generalization performance of random feature ridge regression.
method We derive a deterministic equivalent for the test error of RFRR under a concentration property, showing it can be approximated by a closed-form expression dependent on feature map eigenvalues.
result Our approximation guarantee is non-asymptotic, multiplicative, and independent of the feature map dimension, providing a tight result for the smallest number of features achieving optimal minimax error rate.

Active data collection improves convergence rates in operator learning.

problem Improving convergence rates in operator learning with linear target and stochastic input.
method Active data collection strategies with mean-zero stochastic process and continuous covariance kernels.
result Achieves arbitrarily fast error convergence rates with eigenvalue decay of covariance kernels.

A new distillation method transfers channel information from teacher to student.

problem Transfer knowledge from teacher to student with fewer parameters and calculations.
method Channel Distillation (CD) and Guided Knowledge Distillation (GKD) with loss decay.
result Achieved 27.68% top-1 error on ImageNet with ResNet18, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

Efficiently compress pretrained models using RSI for improved predictive accuracy.

problem Efficiently compressing large pretrained models for practical deployment.
method Randomized subspace iteration (RSI) for low-rank approximation of pretrained models.
result RSI achieves near-optimal approximation quality and outperforms RSVD in predictive accuracy.

Interpolating models can have heavy-tailed risk, leading to rare but severe errors.

problem Interpolating models' tail risk is poorly understood, affecting rare but impactful errors.
method Large-deviation methods to study the fragility of high-dimensional linear interpolators.
result Ridgeless regression exhibits heavy-tailed risk, while ridge-regularized estimators have better tail behavior.

Boosting framework for vector-valued prediction with geometric stability.

problem Lack of a general theoretical understanding of aggregation for structured prediction.
method Identifies (α,β)(α,β)-stability property and proposes a boosting framework based on exponential reweighting and geometric-median aggregation.
result Obtains exponential decay of empirical divergence error under weak learner condition and (α,β)(α,β)-stability.

Machine learning systems increasingly depend on pipelines of multiple algorithms to provide high quality and well structured predictions. This paper argues interaction effects between clustering and prediction (e.g. classification, regression) algorithms can cause subtle adverse behaviors during cross-validation that m…

2018-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper provides convergence guarantees for multicalibration gradient boosting.

problem Understanding the convergence properties of multicalibration gradient boosting.
method Computational guarantees for multicalibration gradient boosting algorithms, including adaptive variants.
result The magnitude of successive prediction updates decays at O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt{T}), leading to convergence in empirical multicalibration error.

Generalizes neural tangent kernel analysis for two-layer networks with noise and regularization.

problem Limitations of NTK analysis in deep learning practice.
method Generalized NTK analysis for two-layer neural networks with weight decay and gradient noise.
result Noisy gradient descent with weight decay exhibits 'kernel-like' behavior and converges linearly.

Study on infinitely-wide CNNs and their adaptability to function spatial scales.

problem Understanding how CNNs efficiently learn high-dimensional functions and their adaptability to function spatial scales.
method Study infinitely-wide deep CNNs in the kernel regime, characterizing their spectrum and using generalisation bounds to prove adaptability.
result Deep CNNs adapt to the spatial scale of the target function, with error decay controlled by the effective dimensionality of function subsets.

Study efficient neural operator learning using variation spaces.

problem Operator learning using encoder-decoder neural networks.
method Introduce variation space for nonlinear operators, establish approximation bounds.
result Algebraic approximation and learning rates for polynomially decaying input and output encoding errors.

LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.

problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.

New bounds for KRR condition number reveal overfitting phenomena.

problem Characterizing overfitting in KRR with varying kernel spectral decay.
method Derived new bounds for kernel matrices, enhanced test error bounds, and identified feature independence role.
result Identified tempered and catastrophic overfitting phenomena.

The goal of predictive sparse coding is to learn a representation of examples as sparse linear combinations of elements from a dictionary, such that a learned hypothesis linear in the new representation performs well on a predictive task. Predictive sparse coding algorithms recently have demonstrated impressive perform…

2012-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

New research shows fixed-budget best-arm identification cannot match static oracle performance.

problem Fixed-budget best-arm identification's performance limitations.
method Analysis of various adaptive and static algorithms for best-arm identification.
result For any algorithm, there exists at least one instance where the error decay rate is at most \((1 + \frac{\log(K)}{8})^{-1}\) times that of the static oracle.

Optimal multistage method solves noisy minimax problems.

problem Minimizing/maximizing in noisy conditions with smooth and strongly convex-strongly concave settings.
method Multistage Stochastic Gradient Descent Ascent (M-GDA) and Optimistic Gradient Descent Ascent (M-OGDA).
result Achieves optimal linear decay rate with respect to initial error and condition number.

The paper improves transformer generalization bounds using rank-dependent covering number bounds.

problem Improving generalization bounds for transformers.
method Introducing rank-dependent covering number bounds for linear function classes and applying them to transformers.
result Generalization error bounds for transformers decay as O(1/n)O(1/\sqrt{n}) and O(logrw)O(\log r_w), improving existing bounds.

We develop a novel approximate simulation algorithm for the joint law of the position, the running supremum and the time of the supremum of a general Lévy process at an arbitrary finite time. We identify the law of the error in simple terms. We prove that the error decays geometrically in LpL^p (for any p1p\geq 1) as a…

2018-10-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Model proposes neural network for continuous time dynamics with inductive biases.

problem Training neural networks for small datasets with nonlinear dynamics.
method Inductive biases on decay rates and frequencies using Koopman operator theory.
result Higher forecasting performance with single short training sequence.

Paper proves Gromov's conjecture on manifolds with certain group properties.

problem Gromov's conjecture on positive scalar curvature and simplicial volume.
method Proves conjecture under a fundamental group decay property.
result Proves Gromov's conjecture for manifolds with a weakened rapid decay property.

Neural processes approximate Gaussian process inference, revealing three key costs.

problem Approximating Gaussian process inference with neural processes.
method Bounding KL divergence into three components: label contamination, information bottleneck, and amortization error.
result Characterization of three costs of amortizing Gaussian process inference with neural processes.

This study examines how large language models learn in-context and provides insights into their performance and architecture.

problem Understanding how large language models learn in-context and their performance metrics.
method Bayesian model averaging, parameterization, and statistical analysis of transformer architecture.
result Transformer architecture enables in-context learning through attention mechanisms and fine-grained statistical analysis.

SGD and weight decay encourage neural networks to learn low-rank weight matrices.

problem The bias of SGD towards low-rank weight matrices in neural networks.
method The study investigates the effect of SGD and weight decay on the rank of weight matrices in neural networks, both theoretically and empirically.
result Training with SGD and weight decay induces a bias towards rank minimization in weight matrices, which becomes more pronounced with smaller batch sizes and stronger weight decay.

Study proposes GRU-D networks for missing value handling in road surface friction prediction.

problem Missing values in road surface friction data affect prediction accuracy.
method Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network with decay mechanism.
result GRU-D networks outperform baseline models in road surface friction prediction.

As the success of deep learning reaches more grounds, one would like to also envision the potential limits of deep learning. This paper gives a first set of results proving that certain deep learning algorithms fail at learning certain efficiently learnable functions. The results put forward a notion of cross-predictab…

2018-12-16abs ↗pdf ↗