Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is the most common nonparametric method for estimating the volatility structure of Gaussian interest rate models. One major difficulty in the estimation of these models is the fact that forward rate curves are not directly observable from the market so that non-trivial observational e…
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48 results for “error curve”
We use learning curves to analyze deep networks and evaluate model design.
problem Evaluate design choices in deep networks.
method Propose a method to robustly estimate learning curves, abstract their parameters, and evaluate different parameterizations.
result Interesting observations on the effectiveness of different parameterizations.
The paper diagnoses factor-model pricing errors using characteristic axes and bridge-alpha curves.
problem Tackles systematic sign reversals and overcorrections in factor-model pricing errors.
method Extends cap-axis integral diagnostic to characteristic axes, measures pricing errors as bridge-alpha curves, and uses a predetermined characteristic order to generate zero-curve restrictions.
result Axis-level pricing errors are nearly orthogonal to maximum-Sharpe gains, showing significant sign reversals and overcorrections.
This paper corrects an error in [Keller-Ressel, M. and Steiner T. "Yield curve shapes and the asymptotic short rate distribution in affine one-factor models." Finance and Stochastics 12.2 (2008): 149-172]. The error concerns the correct expression for the boundary between normal and humped yield curve behavior in affin…
The paper diagnoses factor models using characteristic axes and zero-curve restrictions.
problem Tackles systematic sign reversals and overcorrections in factor model pricing errors.
method Extends cap-axis integral diagnostic to general characteristic axes, measuring pricing errors as bridge-alpha curves.
result Axis-level pricing errors are nearly orthogonal to maximum-Sharpe gains, showing systematic sign reversals and overcorrections.
We show how to compute the Bayes error-rate for speaker verifiers.
problem How many errors does a speaker verifier make in a hundred trials?
method We compute the Bayes error-rate using calibrated likelihood ratios and user-supplied prior probabilities.
result The Bayes error-rate is upper bounded by the minimum of EER, P, and 1-P.
Estimates the number of closed curves on surfaces with power-saving error terms.
problem Counting closed curves on surfaces with given properties.
method Effective dynamics of mapping class group on Teichmüller space and space of closed curves, introducing novel methods.
result Proves estimates with power-saving error terms for filling closed curves and curves with respect to a current.
The study limits intersections of curves on a torus.
problem Bounding intersections of curves on a torus.
method Elementary, combinatorial, and geometric methods.
result The size of distinct homotopy classes of curves intersecting at most k times is k + O(\sqrt{k} \log k).
This paper diagnoses factor-model pricing errors using a new method.
problem Measuring pricing errors in factor models with general characteristic axes.
method Developed a method to measure factor-model pricing errors as bridge-alpha curves, using a predetermined characteristic order and prefix portfolios.
result Adding a counterpart factor flips the curve's sign on every axis, but only HML and CMA overcorrect enough to be rejected.
A spiral unibike track emerges from a mathematical construction.
problem Finding a unibike curve with a spiral shape.
method Starting with a polar square root curve, iteratively applying a differential equation to create a spiral unibike track.
result A spiral unibike curve is found with a precision error less than 10^-7.
A method for noise reduction in functional time series using FPCA.
problem Noise contamination in functional time series.
method Extending FPCA to separate signal and noise components.
result Optimal projection minimizes mean integrated squared error.
In this paper we describe a 1-dimensional family of initial conditions Σthat provides reduced periodic solution of the three body problem. This family Σcontains a bifurcation point and extend the periodic solution described in (Perdomo, http://arxiv.org/pdf/1507.01100.pdf). This 1-dimensional family is the union of two…
New method approximates anisotropic curve shortening flow.
problem Approximating anisotropic curve shortening flow.
method Weak formulation and finite element approximation.
result Optimal -error bound for approximation.
Develops a simple model to understand learning curves for arbitrary power laws.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of scaling laws in machine learning.
method Analyzes a toy model to determine if learning curves are universal or depend on data distribution.
result Determines that learning curves can exhibit for arbitrary power .
We find bounds on the difference between the writhing number of a smooth curve, and the writhing number of a polygon inscribed within. The proof is based on an extension of Fuller's difference of writhe formula to the case of polygonal curves. The results establish error bounds useful in the computation of writhe.
SIC detects elbows in error curves automatically.
problem Automatic elbow detection in error curves.
method Spectral information criterion (SIC) extracts geometric features of error curves.
result SIC provides a subset of models with smaller cardinality than total possible models.
We prove an effective version of a theorem relating curve complex distance to electric distance in hyperbolic 3-manifolds, up to errors that are polynomial in the complexity of the underlying surface. We use this to give an effective proof of a result regarding maps between curve complexes of surfaces induced by finite…
The paper analyzes learning curves for kernel ridge regression with dot-product kernels.
problem Understanding the learning curves for different scaling regimes of data and model.
method Precise formulas for mean test error, bias, and variance in the with constant regime.
result A peak in the learning curve at for any integer .
A new model captures forward curve dynamics with stochastic volatility.
problem Modeling continuous-time evolution of forward curves in financial markets.
method Affine stochastic volatility model with modulated dynamics.
result Model allows for maturity-specific risk and volatility clustering.
This paper has been withdrawn by the author due to serious error found in main argument.
This work explains how large neural networks generalize well despite overparameterization.
problem Understanding the generalization behavior of large neural networks.
method Theoretical analysis of approximation and generalization errors in regression and classification tasks.
result Deep overparameterized neural networks are statistically consistent across different tasks when regularization is applied.
Paper introduces ILD algorithm to determine Bayes error for binary classification.
problem Determining the best possible performance in binary classification problems.
method Model-agnostic ILD algorithm to calculate Bayes error.
result Provides intrinsic limits of any binary classification algorithm.
Approximating complex curves with simple parametric curves is widely used in CAGD, CG, and CNC. This paper presents an algorithm to compute a certified approximation to a given parametric space curve with cubic B-spline curves. By certified, we mean that the approximation can approximate the given curve to any given pr…
%auto-ignore This paper has been withdrawn by the author, due to a crucial error.
Deep learning framework for bond and yield curve forecasting with no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Arbitrage-free yield curve and bond price forecasting.
method Combines Kalman, extended Kalman, and particle filters with LSTM/CLSTM, and introduces AER term.
result Arbitrage regularization improves forecast accuracy, especially at short maturities.
This work studies learning curves for revenue maximization algorithms.
problem Understanding the performance of revenue-maximizing algorithms as they learn from more data.
method Initiates the study of learning curves for revenue maximization, providing a near-complete characterization of their rate of decay.
result Learning curves for revenue maximization can decay arbitrarily slowly or almost exponentially fast, depending on the distribution and optimal revenue.
Solves asymptotic -realization problem for curves.
problem Realization problem for plane curves.
method Asymptotic analysis of smooth -realization.
result Determines cobordism distance between specific knot types.
Analysis of different Mathematical Models for Different Case Studies Using Statistical Fittingmath.DG
Study evaluates different mathematical models for three case studies using statistical fitting.
problem Estimating outcomes in population dynamics, temperature variations, and market equilibrium.
method Applied various statistical equations (e.g., fractional exponential, sinusoidal) to three case studies.
result Optimal models differ by case study (fractional exponential for population dynamics, sinusoidal for temperature and market equilibrium).
We develop and apply an approach for analyzing multi-curve data where each curve is driven by a latent state process. The state at any particular point determines a smooth function, forcing the individual curve to switch from one function to another. Thus each curve follows what we call a switching nonparametric regres…
New findings challenge the traditional U-shaped curve of model complexity and error, revealing a second descent in error as model size increases.
problem The traditional U-shaped curve of model complexity and prediction error is incomplete, with recent work suggesting a second descent in error as model size increases.
method Careful consideration of multiple complexity axes and a nonparametric statistics perspective were used to interpret the observed double descent curves.
result The observed double descent curves in classical statistical machine learning methods fold back into traditional convex shapes, resolving tensions with statistical intuition.
Study derives error decay rates for kernel classification under source and capacity conditions.
problem Understanding prediction error decay rates for real data sets.
method Derived decay rates for misclassification error under Gaussian design for SVM and ridge classification.
result Rates accurately describe learning curves for data sets satisfying source and capacity conditions.
We prove Gronwall-type estimates for the distance of integral curves of smooth vector fields on a Riemannian manifold. Such estimates are of central importance for all methods of solving ODEs in a verified way, i.e., with full control of roundoff errors. Our results may therefore be seen as a prerequisite for the gener…
We study the -median clustering problem for high-dimensional polygonal curves with finite but unbounded number of vertices. We tackle the computational issue that arises from the high number of dimensions by defining a Johnson-Lindenstrauss projection for polygonal curves. We analyze the resulting error in terms of …
Extensive empirical evidence reveals that, for a wide range of different learning methods and datasets, the risk curve exhibits a double-descent (DD) trend as a function of the model size. In a recent paper [Zeyu,Kammoun,Thrampoulidis,2019] the authors studied binary linear classification models and showed that the tes…
Machine learning classifies complex geometric patterns with high accuracy.
problem Classifying extension degree of dessins d'enfants over the rationals.
method Deep feed-forward neural network trained on machine learning.
result 0.92 accuracy in classification with 0.03 standard error.
The generalization error of random features regression: Precise asymptotics and double descent curvemath.ST
Deep learning methods operate in regimes that defy the traditional statistical mindset. Neural network architectures often contain more parameters than training samples, and are so rich that they can interpolate the observed labels, even if the latter are replaced by pure noise. Despite their huge complexity, the same …
Study shows how to make 3D shapes hyperbolic with specific curves.
problem Understanding hyperbolic structures on 3-manifolds.
method Analyzing Heegaard splittings and using specific curves to prove hyperbolicity.
result Computed the length of a curve in terms of projection coefficients.
The bias-variance tradeoff tells us that as model complexity increases, bias falls and variances increases, leading to a U-shaped test error curve. However, recent empirical results with over-parameterized neural networks are marked by a striking absence of the classic U-shaped test error curve: test error keeps decrea…
Unified analysis of generalization curves in large models using gradient flow.
problem Analyzing generalization error curves in simple learning models.
method Gradient flow in the Gaussian covariate model, using random matrix theory.
result Unified understanding of multiple descent structures in learning curves.
Machine learning fails to improve recession prediction with yield spread.
problem Improving recession prediction using yield spread selection.
method Machine learning algorithm to identify best maturity pair and coefficients.
result Machine learning does not significantly improve prediction of recession.
We study the average case performance of multi-task Gaussian process (GP) regression as captured in the learning curve, i.e. the average Bayes error for a chosen task versus the total number of examples for all tasks. For GP covariances that are the product of an input-dependent covariance function and a free-form …
Accurate forecasts of electricity spot prices are essential to the daily operational and planning decisions made by power producers and distributors. Typically, point forecasts of these quantities suffice, particularly in the Nord Pool market where the large quantity of hydro power leads to price stability. However, wh…
We analyze learning curves of RF models with convex regularization and derive precise asymptotic expressions.
problem Understanding the learning curves of RF models with general convex regularization.
method Novel multi-level application of the convex Gaussian min max theorem (CGMT) to compute precise asymptotic expressions.
result Precise asymptotic expressions for learning curves of RF models with separable strongly convex regularization or regularization.
This paper introduces a novel monotone curve estimation framework based on convex duality.
problem Estimating smooth, continuous, and monotonic curves in data.
method Convex duality and optimal transport theories.
result Established statistical guarantees for monotone curve estimates.
Meta-learning extends supervised learning to tasks with varying numbers of examples, revealing conditions for successful learning.
problem Characterizing conditions for successful learning in meta-learning settings.
method Developed a necessary and sufficient condition for meta-learnability using a bounded number of examples per domain.
result The number of tasks must increase inversely with the desired error, while the number of examples per task can vary significantly.
Derivative-Informed Operator Learning for Finance: On-the-Fly Greeks, Surfaces, Hedging, and Controlq-fin.MF
Derivative-informed models improve financial surrogates for accurate hedging and risk management.
problem Developing fast surrogate models for financial derivatives and risk quantities.
method Derivative-informed operator learning framework combining neural operators, random features, and tangent sensitivity equations.
result The framework reduces hedging and risk errors by 40-76% compared to standard surrogates.
Proposes a diagnostic method to evaluate factor models using cap-axis integrals.
problem Improving factor model evaluation in low-dimensional spaces.
method Lifts pricing errors into a bridge-alpha curve along the market-capitalization rank axis.
result The cap-axis norm is distinct from Sharpe gain and size exposure.
Proposes a diagnostic method to evaluate factor models using cap-axis integrals.
problem Improving factor model evaluation for low-dimensional models.
method Lifts pricing errors into a bridge-alpha curve along the market-capitalization rank axis.
result The cap-axis norm is distinct from Sharpe gain and size exposure.