A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study examines extreme and erratic cryptocurrency behaviour during COVID-19.
Study shows similarities and differences in crypto and equity dynamics during pandemic.
New measure quantifies financial erratic behavior.
Retracted temporarily to fix some erratic things.
New method calibrates Gaussian product experts for better predictions.
Novel method uses PDifMPs to price American options more accurately.
We show that, given any finite dimensional, connected, compact metric space Z, there exists a group G acting geometrically on two CAT(0) spaces X and Y, a G-equivariant quasi-isometry f from X to Y, and a geodesic ray c in X, such that the closure of f(c), instersected with the boundary of Y, is homeomorphic to Z. This…
We analyze the time series of four major cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple) before the digital market crash at the end of 2017 - beginning 2018. We introduce a methodology that combines topological data analysis with a machine learning technique -- -means clustering -- in order to automatical…
Improved ARMA-GARCH model for illiquid assets like cryptocurrencies.
Detects unusual inputs to neural networks to prevent flawed predictions.
This article is a follow-up of a short essay that appeared in Nature 455, 1181 (2008) [arXiv:0810.5306]. It has become increasingly clear that the erratic dynamics of markets is mostly endogenous and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. I elaborate on the idea that spin-glass type of problems, where th…
For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model is too small to be detected using traditional time series analysis. However, we s…
This paper improves wind power prediction via weather forecast-contextualized Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) models. Initially, only wind power data was fed to a generic LSTM, but this model performed poorly, with erratic and naive behavior observed on even low-variance data sections. To address this issu…
In this work, we consider the problem of estimating a behaviour policy for use in Off-Policy Policy Evaluation (OPE) when the true behaviour policy is unknown. Via a series of empirical studies, we demonstrate how accurate OPE is strongly dependent on the calibration of estimated behaviour policy models: how precisely …
The main aim of this work is to incorporate selected findings from behavioural finance into a Heterogeneous Agent Model using the Brock and Hommes (1998) framework. Behavioural patterns are injected into an asset pricing framework through the so-called `Break Point Date', which allows us to examine their direct impact.…
Genetic Algorithm improves Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model calibration for interest rates.
New simulation model predicts financial market dynamics with high accuracy.
Automated model tracks mouse behavior in home cages.
Impact of chosen behavioural factors on imprecision of present value is discussed here. The formal model of behavioural present value is offered as a result of this discussion. Behavioural present value is described here by fuzzy set. These considerations were illustrated by means of extensive numerical case study. Fin…
New bounds on predicting agent behavior from behavior alone.
We develop an algebraic framework for the description and analysis of financial behaviours, that is, behaviours that consist of transferring certain amounts of money at planned times. To a large extent, analysis of financial products amounts to analysis of such behaviours. We formalize the cumulative interest compliant…
LLMs can simulate human investment attitudes based on personality traits.
Assessment of risk levels for existing credit accounts is important to the implementation of bank policies and offering financial products. This paper uses cluster analysis of behaviour of credit card accounts to help assess credit risk level. Account behaviour is modelled parametrically and we then implement the behav…
In modeling multivariate time series, it is important to allow time-varying smoothness in the mean and covariance process. In particular, there may be certain time intervals exhibiting rapid changes and others in which changes are slow. If such time-varying smoothness is not accounted for, one can obtain misleading inf…
Financial advisors use KYC info but not client behaviours to guide investments.
Studies report that firms do not invest in cost-effective green technologies. While economic barriers can explain parts of the gap, behavioural aspects cause further under-valuation. This could be partly due to systematic deviations of decision-making agents' perceptions from normative benchmarks, and partly due to the…
Learning from demonstration (LfD) is useful in settings where hand-coding behaviour or a reward function is impractical. It has succeeded in a wide range of problems but typically relies on manually generated demonstrations or specially deployed sensors and has not generally been able to leverage the copious demonstrat…
This paper analyses the behaviour of volatility for several international stock market indexes, namely the SP 500 (USA), the Nikkei (Japan), the PSI 20 (Portugal), the CAC 40 (France), the DAX 30 (Germany), the FTSE 100 (UK), the IBEX 35 (Spain) and the MIB 30 (Italy), in the context of non-stationarity. Our empirical …
Deep neural networks learn by averaging fast variables, revealing a Gaussian process.
Robustifies Markowitz portfolios to reduce transaction costs and improve performance.
Neural network predicts nonlinear safety behavior based on personality traits.
CROCS clusters consumer behaviour from smart meters, capturing variability and robustness.
The financial market is nonpredictable, as according to the Bachelier, the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. Nevertheless, we observe in the price fluctuations the two distinct scales, short and long time. Behaviour of a market in long terms, such as year intervals, is different from that in short ter…
Diffusion models mimic human actions in sequential tasks.
In this paper we present an early Apprenticeship Learning approach to mimic the behaviour of different players in a short adaption of the interactive fiction Anchorhead. Our motivation is the need to understand and simulate player behaviour to create systems to aid the design and personalisation of Interactive Narrativ…
Exclusive Group Lasso improves feature selection in correlated biological data.
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and how prices move, the joint fluctuations of order flow and liquidity - and the way…
We show that the behaviour of Bitcoin has interesting similarities to stock and precious metal markets, such as gold and silver. We report that whilst Litecoin, the second largest cryptocurrency, closely follows Bitcoin's behaviour, it does not show all the reported properties of Bitcoin. Agreements between apparently …
Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can theoretically be supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This paper gives a formal account of this relation by a signalling game. This is a game with in…
We study a minimalist kinetic model for economies. A system of agents with local trading rules display emergent demand behaviour. We examine the resulting wealth distribution to look for non-thermal behaviour. We compare and contrast this model with other similar models.
We perform a scaling analysis on NYSE daily returns. We show that volatility correlations are power-laws on a time range from one day to one year and, more important, that they exhibit a multiscale behaviour.
In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic behaviour of the Hermitian-Yang-Mills flow over a compact non-Kähler manifold with the Hermitian metric satisfying the Gauduchon and Astheno-Kähler condition.
Study optimal execution in a transient price impact model with multiple traders.
Deep learning predicts vehicle behavior for safer autonomous driving.
Develops a generic two-layer framework for adaptive ABMs.
Method uses ANN to estimate incentive salience from large behavioral data.
Following a Geometrical Brownian Motion extension into an Irrational Fractional Brownian Motion model, we re-examine agent behaviour reacting to time dependent news on the log-returns thereby modifying a financial market evolution. We specifically discuss the role of financial news or economic information positive or n…
Paper characterizes early-stage dementia signatures from sensor data.