Investor finds a fair outcome in complex financial markets.
problem Finding a fair outcome in complex financial markets.
method Recalled and proved the existence of personal equilibrium in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model.
result Personal equilibrium exists in a multistep, generically incomplete financial market model under appropriate assumptions.
Study shows Bitcoin security tied to mining rewards and prices.
problem Understanding Bitcoin security's dependency on market outcomes.
method Used ARDL approach with daily blockchain and Bitcoin data from 2014-2019.
result Bitcoin security outcomes linked to Bitcoin price and mining rewards.
The paper examines insurance market dynamics and optimal regulation.
problem Equilibrium outcomes in dynamic insurance markets.
method Analyzes three equilibrium outcomes: positive, zero, and market failure.
result Insurers may accept underwriting losses by investing profits, especially with negative correlations.
Analyzes how financial network dependencies can lead to multiple equilibrium outcomes and optimal bailout strategies.
problem Multiple equilibrium outcomes in financial networks due to dependency cycles.
method Characterized necessary and sufficient conditions for bank solvency, and provided upper bounds on optimal bailout payments.
result Minimum bailout payments needed to ensure systemic solvency and prevent cascading defaults.
The paper explores how mining costs, rewards, and blockchain security are interconnected.
problem Understanding the interdependencies between mining costs, mining rewards, and blockchain security.
method Theoretical derivation and empirical analysis using daily crypto market data and autoregressive distributed lag approach.
result Cryptocurrency price and mining rewards are intrinsically linked to blockchain security outcomes.
Equilibrium found for multi-agent trading with transaction costs.
problem Designing a trading equilibrium for multiple agents with transaction costs.
method Proving the existence of a continuous-time Radner equilibrium with incentives and transaction costs.
result Each agent optimally trades for a specific time interval before stopping, influenced by transaction costs.
We introduce an evolutionary game with feedback between perception and reality, which we call the reality game. It is a game of chance in which the probabilities for different objective outcomes (e.g., heads or tails in a coin toss) depend on the amount wagered on those outcomes. By varying the `reality map', which rel…
The game theory techniques are used to find the equilibrium of a market. Game theory refers to the ways in which strategic interactions among economic agents produce outcomes with respect to the preferences (or utilities) of those agents, where the outcomes in question might have been intended by none of the agents. Th…
We consider thin incomplete financial markets, where traders with heterogeneous preferences and risk exposures have motive to behave strategically regarding the demand schedules they submit, thereby impacting prices and allocations. We argue that traders relatively more exposed to market risk tend to submit more elasti…
We test a historical price time series in a financial market (the NASDAQ 100 index) for a statistical property known as detailed balance. The presence of detailed balance would imply that the market can be modeled by a stochastic process based on a Markov chain, thus leading to equilibrium. In economic terms, a positiv…
The large majority of risk-sharing transactions involve few agents, each of whom can heavily influence the structure and the prices of securities. This paper proposes a game where agents' strategic sets consist of all possible sharing securities and pricing kernels that are consistent with Arrow-Debreu sharing rules. F…
The study finds that maximizing median returns is the only viable strategy in portfolio selection.
problem Difficulties in studying optimal portfolio strategies due to discontinuity and time inconsistency in maximizing median and quantile returns.
method Used intra-personal equilibrium approach to analyze portfolio selection under median and quantile maximization.
result Median maximization is the only viable strategy, with no investment in risky assets for other quantiles.
The paper analyzes strategic irreversible investments with novel dynamic strategies.
problem Tradeoff between preemption incentives and option value of waiting in oligopolistic markets.
method Developed novel Markov perfect equilibrium to handle singular control of optimal investment.
result Simpler strategies lead to a 'preemption trap' with zero net present values.
Generative Adversarial Networks are a new family of generative models, frequently used for generating photorealistic images. The theory promises for the GAN to eventually reach an equilibrium where generator produces pictures indistinguishable for the training set. In practice, however, a range of problems frequently p…
We consider a market model that consists of financial investors and producers of a commodity. Producers optionally store some production for future sale and go short on forward contracts to hedge the uncertainty of the future commodity price. Financial investors take positions in these contracts in order to diversify t…
Study examines how market dynamics affect emissions trading prices and abatement efforts.
problem Effectiveness of emissions markets depends on regulatory standards, costs, and abatement levels.
method Radner equilibrium framework that considers intertemporal decision-making and uncertainty.
result Variations in regulatory standards, costs, and abatement levels influence allowance prices and abatement efforts.
The paper analyzes a game where players must balance short-term and long-term interests, leading to cooperative or competitive outcomes.
problem Analyzing time inconsistency in inter-personal decision-making under non-exponential discounting.
method Iterative procedures and Zorn's lemma to find Nash equilibria between players' intra-personal equilibria.
result Inter-personal equilibria exist and depend on the impatience levels of the players.
Agents trained with reinforcement learning deviate from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.
problem Deviation of reinforcement learning strategies from Nash equilibrium in optimal execution game.
method Two-player optimal execution game with reinforcement learning algorithms (Double Deep Q-Learning).
result Strategies learned by agents deviate significantly from Nash equilibrium, exhibiting supra-competitive solutions.
Deep RL solves complex economic models with heterogeneous agents.
problem Solving models with heterogeneous economic actors is difficult.
method Reinforcement Learning techniques for solving general equilibrium models.
result Successfully captures economic behaviors induced by age-based health risks.
The paper analyzes competition among fund managers using excess logarithmic returns and constructs games to find optimal allocations.
problem Optimal allocation strategies among fund managers considering excess logarithmic returns.
method Constructs both n-player and mean field games to address the competition problem. result The MFE of the MFG represents the limit of n-player game's equilibrium as n approaches infinity. Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
problem Understanding and optimizing strategic interactions in labor markets.
method Formulation of causal strategic classification, theory, and experiments.
result Performatively optimal hiring policies improve employer and labor outcomes, but can also harm labor force utility.
When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far been neglected in supervised learning. When ignored, performativity surfaces as…
Geometric theory explains substitutability in market outcomes based on production constraints.
problem Understanding substitutability in markets with structured feasible products.
method Modeling the set of feasible products as a compact Riemannian manifold to study intrinsic geometry and its effects on substitutability.
result Intrinsic geometry of the feasible set governs substitutability and market outcomes, with curvature controlling technological substitution elasticity.
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon i…
The paper studies an oligopolistic equilibrium model of financial agents who aim to share their random endowments. The risk-sharing securities and their prices are endogenously determined as the outcome of a strategic game played among all the participating agents. In the complete-market setting, each agent's set of st…
Study shows climate change can cause a 'run on fossil fuels' affecting prices and production.
problem Impact of climate change expectations on fossil fuel markets and prices.
method Dynamic, general equilibrium model of climate-change-linked transition risk.
result Climate change expectations can lead to either increased or decreased fossil fuel prices, depending on economic responses.
New framework for estimating treatment effects in experiments with network interference.
problem Network interference biases traditional treatment effect estimations in randomized experiments.
method Causal message-passing framework based on high-dimensional approximate message passing.
result Practical algorithm to estimate total treatment effect in multi-period experiments.
Study liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges considering risk aversion and replication costs.
problem Economic viability of liquidity provision in decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
method Formulated strategic interactions as a sequential game with risk-averse LP, traders, and arbitrageurs.
result DEX liquidity depth is crucial for risk management, influenced by risk aversion and replication costs.
The paper examines how insurers manage risks and liquidity in a dynamic market.
problem Model uncertainty in insurance pricing and competitive equilibrium.
method Analyzes insurers' robustness preferences and optimization strategies for underwriting and liquidity management.
result Robust insurance pricing leads to higher premiums and equity valuations compared to a benchmark.
Optimizes long-term social welfare in recommender systems by matching users to providers.
problem Realistic recommender systems dynamics affect all agents, not just users.
method Formulated as an optimal constrained matching problem, solved using dynamical system equilibrium selection.
result Ensures maximal social welfare with diverse viable providers, improving over myopic matching.
The paper finds optimal levels for traders in mean-reverting markets.
problem Determining optimal levels for traders in mean-reverting markets.
method Analytical framework using heat potentials.
result Developed an analytical solution for optimal levels.
New findings show strategic interactions can undermine model expressiveness in machine learning.
problem How strategic interactions affect model performance in machine learning.
method Analyzing model expressiveness and strategic interactions in various machine learning settings.
result Optimizing over less expressive model classes can lead to better equilibrium outcomes in strategic environments.
Decomposes spillover effects under misspecified exposure mappings.
problem Modeling outcomes as functions of own treatment and a misspecified exposure mapping of others' treatments.
method Pseudo-true estimands and local-global extension for structured misspecification.
result Sharp asymptotic decomposition into direct, local, and global components.
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
problem How evidence acquisition costs affect disclosure behavior and preference.
method Analyzes sender-receiver interactions with covert and overt evidence acquisition, varying certification costs.
result Equilibria converge to the Pareto-worst free-learning equilibrium as costs vanish, and receivers prefer covert to overt acquisition.
Study evaluates different mathematical models for three case studies using statistical fitting.
problem Estimating outcomes in population dynamics, temperature variations, and market equilibrium.
method Applied various statistical equations (e.g., fractional exponential, sinusoidal) to three case studies.
result Optimal models differ by case study (fractional exponential for population dynamics, sinusoidal for temperature and market equilibrium).
New algorithms learn stable matchings from uncertain user preferences.
problem Learning stable matchings from uncertain user preferences.
method Stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, incentive-aware learning objective, primal-dual formulation.
result Near-optimal regret bounds for learning stable matchings.
In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binary options. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices are consistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world being realized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find little evidence for converge…
Model shows partial compliance can lead to less fair outcomes than expected.
problem How partial compliance affects fairness in competitive markets.
method Simple model of employment market, simulation to explore effects.
result Partial compliance can lead to less fair outcomes than expected.
We consider the problem of belief aggregation: given a group of individual agents with probabilistic beliefs over a set of uncertain events, formulate a sensible consensus or aggregate probability distribution over these events. Researchers have proposed many aggregation methods, although on the question of which is be…
A \emph{new} notion of equilibrium, which we call \emph{strong equilibrium}, is introduced for time-inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time. Compared to the existing notions introduced in ArXiv: 1502.03998 and ArXiv: 1709.05181, which in this paper are called \emph{mild equilibrium} and \emph{weak equilibrium…
A constrained informationally efficient market is defined to be one whose price process arises as the outcome of some equilibrium where agents face restrictions on trade. This paper investigates the case of short sale constraints, a setting which despite its simplicity, generates new insights. In particular, it is show…
Fair insurance contracts are designed to handle default risk using cooperative game theory.
problem Designing fair insurance contracts in the presence of default risk.
method Cooperative game theory to specify premiums and participation in benefit.
result Fair benefit participation emerges as a game outcome involving residual risks.
Two-cycle GEILA equilibria are OLG equilibria and vice versa, with applications to indeterminacy and bubbles.
problem Relationship between GEILA and OLG models.
method Proof of equilibrium equivalence and application to indeterminacy and bubbles.
result GEILA and OLG models are equivalent under certain conditions.
We prove the existence of a Radner equilibrium in a model with proportional transaction costs on an infinite time horizon and analyze the effect of transaction costs on the endogenously determined interest rate. Two agents receive exogenous, unspanned income and choose between consumption and investing into an annuity.…
In this work, we present a continuous-time large-population game for modeling market microstructure betweentwo consecutive trades. The proposed modeling framework is inspired by our previous work [23]. In this framework, the Limit Order Book (LOB) arises as an outcome of an equilibrium between multiple agents who have …
A new method relaxes molecules without needing non-equilibrium data.
problem Molecular relaxation requires understanding non-equilibrium structures.
method MoreRed: molecular relaxation by reverse diffusion with time step prediction.
result MoreRed learns a simpler pseudo potential energy surface.
Existence of Radner equilibrium proven with growing population.
problem Analyzing Radner equilibrium in a model with population growth.
method Proved existence of equilibrium for growing population using mathematical analysis.
result Equilibrium exists for a growing population, with effects on annuity prices.
Study how transaction costs impact stock returns and holdings in equilibrium.
problem Impact of quadratic transaction costs on equilibrium stock returns and holdings.
method Developed a continuous-time risk-sharing model with FBSDEs to characterize equilibrium stock holdings and trading rates.
result Equilibrium stock holdings and trading rates are uniquely determined by FBSDEs, and equilibrium return by a system of coupled FBSDEs.