Overparametrized neural networks retain significant epistemic uncertainty even with sufficient data.
problem Epistemic uncertainty in overparametrized neural networks persists despite model identifiability.
method Analysis of non-identifiability and characterization of residual uncertainty in one-hidden-layer ReLU networks.
result Substantial parameter uncertainty remains even when the underlying function is fully identified.
Introduces epistemic deep learning for better uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Random-set convolutional neural networks with belief function-based loss functions.
result Epistemic approach produces better performance in uncertainty estimation.
Bayesian Neural Networks show unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty with large models and little data.
problem Unexpected collapse of epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Experiments with varying model size and training data size.
result Epistemic uncertainty collapses in the presence of large models and sometimes little data.
Bayesian inference improves neural network predictions by separating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
problem Improving prediction accuracy of neural networks by quantifying and separating uncertainties.
method Approximated posterior distributions using deep ensembles for various neural network architectures.
result Prediction accuracy depends on both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, not just marginalized uncertainty.
Cooperative model disentangles data uncertainties.
problem Disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in real-world data.
method Cooperatively trains a variance estimation network with a Bayesian neural network.
result Improves mean estimation and disentangles uncertainties.
Delta Variances efficiently estimate epistemic uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Mitigating uncertainty in neural networks with limited data.
method Delta Variances, a computationally efficient algorithm for epistemic uncertainty quantification.
result Empirically competitive results with a single gradient computation.
EPINET improves neural networks with less computation.
problem Efficiently estimating uncertainty in neural networks.
method Introduces EPINET architecture that augments any neural network with minimal additional training.
result EPINET outperforms large ensembles with significantly less computation.
Proposes EVE for efficient exploration in reinforcement learning.
problem Efficient exploration in reinforcement learning.
method EVE: a recipe for posterior over parameters, facilitating efficient exploration.
result Competitive performance on benchmarks, efficient exploration confirmed.
Paper reduces uncertainty in predictive models using neural networks and Gaussian processes.
problem High epistemic uncertainty in predictive models.
method Adaptive sampling approach with prediction interval-generation neural networks and Gaussian processes.
result Method consistently converges faster to minimum epistemic uncertainty levels.
Proposes a new method to measure epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
problem Measuring epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks for out-of-distribution detection.
method Proposes measuring disagreement between logits and their pre-softmax counterparts as an epistemic uncertainty measure.
result Proposed epistemic uncertainty scores outperform mutual information and equal predictive entropy performance.
New method extracts aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties from regression-based neural networks.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in machine learning systems.
method Learning evidential distributions for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Allows for the simultaneous extraction of both uncertainties without sampling or out-of-distribution data.
New framework models epistemic uncertainty in GNNs using random sets.
problem Uncertainty in graph neural network predictions.
method Introduces a belief function (random set) approach to model epistemic uncertainty in GNNs.
result Demonstrates superior uncertainty quantification on various graph datasets.
This study examines how neural network latent representations correlate with model uncertainty.
problem Detecting model uncertainty in neural networks.
method Empirical verification and analysis of latent representations' distribution and conditional output.
result Deep layers in neural networks can infer uncertainty similar to more computationally expensive methods.
Enhances neural networks with prior function values to improve accuracy.
problem Improving neural network accuracy in regions without training data.
method Develops a probabilistic approach to augment BNNs with prior function values.
result Predictions rely more on prior information in uncertain regions.
Extends neural network training framework to handle noise and uncertainty.
problem Handling noise and uncertainty in neural network training.
method Integrates non-zero aleatoric noise and derives posterior covariance for epistemic uncertainty.
result Derives an estimator for posterior covariance, providing a handle on epistemic uncertainty.
We present a sampling-free approach for computing the epistemic uncertainty of a neural network. Epistemic uncertainty is an important quantity for the deployment of deep neural networks in safety-critical applications, since it represents how much one can trust predictions on new data. Recently promising works were pr…
A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.
problem Estimating individual treatment effects from observational data.
method An anchored neural architecture and precision-corrected intersection-bound inference.
result Corrected bias and maintained nominal coverage in high-dimensional settings.
DER uses neural nets to better handle uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Need for principled uncertainty reasoning in safety-critical domains.
method Uncertainty-aware regression-based neural networks (NNs) with evidential distributions.
result DER shows promise over traditional methods but is a heuristic.
New framework identifies and reduces errors in machine learning under distribution shift.
problem Errors in machine learning models when distributions change.
method Developed a principled framework to characterize and eliminate epistemic errors in imperfect multitask learning.
result Provided a decompositional epistemic error bound for general settings of distribution shift.
GEBM improves uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
problem Challenges in quantifying epistemic uncertainty in graph neural networks.
method Energy-based model (EBM) that aggregates uncertainty at different structural levels.
result Significantly improves predictive robustness and achieves best separation of in-distribution and out-of-distribution data.
Unified Bayesian framework for quantifying GNN uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in GNN predictions due to modeling errors and measurement uncertainty.
method Unified Bayesian framework with aleatoric uncertainty from probabilistic links and feature noise, and epistemic uncertainty from model parameter distribution. Uses Assumed Density Filtering for aleatoric uncertainty and Monte Carlo dropout for model parameter uncertainty.
result Bayesian model performs similarly to frequentist model and provides additional uncertainty information.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
The paper introduces a method to quantify uncertainty in neural networks without parametric assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for neural network predictions.
method Nonparametric estimation of conditional label distribution using Nadaraya-Watson kernel.
result The method effectively disentangles aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve OOD detection with limited data.
problem Limited training data hinders reliable OOD detection.
method Bayesian Neural Networks with expected logit vectors.
result Bayesian methods outperform deterministic methods in small data settings.
For many applications it is critical to know the uncertainty of a neural network's predictions. While a variety of neural network parameter estimation methods have been proposed for uncertainty estimation, they have not been rigorously compared across uncertainty measures. We assess four of these parameter estimation m…
Delta method applied to deep nets for uncertainty quantification.
problem Quantifying epistemic uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Low-cost variant of Delta method for L2-regularized deep neural networks. result Approximation error close to zero for meaningful rankings of images.
The paper quantifies aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with random forests.
problem Addressing uncertainty in machine learning predictions.
method Using decision trees and random forests to measure aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Random forests effectively quantify uncertainties compared to deep neural networks.
We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles of a given target variable. These quantiles can be used to compute well-calibrat…
SDE-Net quantifies uncertainty in deep nets using stochastic dynamics.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Viewing DNN transformations as state evolution of a stochastic dynamical system, introducing a Brownian motion term for epistemic uncertainty.
result SDE-Net outperforms existing methods in uncertainty estimation across various tasks.
We derive a novel sensitivity analysis of input variables for predictive epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We use Bayesian neural networks with latent variables as a model class and illustrate the usefulness of our sensitivity analysis on real-world datasets. Our method increases the interpretability of complex blac…
Bayesian neural networks fail at OOD detection, revealing fundamental issues.
problem The ability of Bayesian neural networks to detect out-of-distribution data.
method Empirical study of Bayesian inference in neural networks, including infinite-width and finite-width cases using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
result Bayesian inference in common neural network architectures does not lead to good OOD detection.
We introduce a novel uncertainty estimation for classification tasks for Bayesian convolutional neural networks with variational inference. By normalizing the output of a Softplus function in the final layer, we estimate aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a coherent manner. The intractable posterior probability dis…
Select-DC reduces GFLOPS for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Computational inefficiency in estimating model uncertainty for low-latency applications.
method Select-DC uses a subset of layers to model epistemic uncertainty with MCDC, reducing GFLOPS.
result Significant reduction in GFLOPS required for uncertainty estimation with marginal performance loss.
DiBS learns Bayesian network structure and parameters efficiently.
problem Bayesian structure learning with uncertainty reasoning.
method Differentiable framework for continuous latent graph representation, agnostic to local conditional distributions.
result Significantly outperforms related approaches in posterior inference.
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
Unified framework for hierarchical image classification with epistemic uncertainty.
problem Overconfident predictions and lack of logical consistency in deep learning models.
method Neurosymbolic approach with epistemic deep learning, using focal set reasoning and differentiable fuzzy logic.
result Maintains accuracy on par with transformer baselines while providing more calibrated and interpretable predictions.
While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial, for example in automotive applications. In Bayesian deep learning, predictive unc…
Improved covariate shift handling with node-based Bayesian neural networks.
problem Improving generalization under covariate shift in neural networks.
method Introduced node-based Bayesian neural networks that learn latent noise variables to represent input corruptions.
result Node-based BNNs perform well under covariate shift due to input perturbations, improving uncertainty estimation and robustness.
A new method quantifies deep neural network uncertainty by mixing OVA and AVA classifiers.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks, especially for out-of-distribution data.
method Mixing predictions from OVA and AVA classifiers to improve uncertainty quantification.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in quantifying out-of-distribution data.
New approach links machine learning reliability to epistemic uncertainty.
problem Characterize and quantify reliability of machine learning predictions.
method Extend JTB theory to neural networks, linking prediction reliability to support characteristics.
result Demonstrates reliability for individual predictions and identifies regions of uncertainty.
Study highlights how model choice affects uncertainty estimation in neural network regression.
problem Uncertainty estimation under model misspecification in neural network regression.
method Analyzed the impact of model choice on uncertainty estimation in neural network regression, focusing on aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties.
result Model misspecification leads to unreliable uncertainty estimates, highlighting the importance of choosing appropriate models.
Study evaluates machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in complex systems.
problem Accurately quantify epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in complex dynamical systems.
method Examined Gaussian processes, UQ-augmented neural networks (ENN, BNN, D-NN, G-NN) on two model data sets.
result Concluded on model architecture and hyperparameter tuning for improved UQ accuracy.
Hypermodels improve exploration efficiency and accuracy.
problem Efficiently approximating Thompson sampling with large ensembles.
method Introducing hypermodels as a generalization of ensembles, including linear and neural network hypermodels.
result Hypermodels enable more accurate exploration and performance gains over Thompson sampling.
GPNs use unlabeled data to estimate uncertainty in Bayesian problems.
problem Limited training data in high-dimensional problems.
method Generative Posterior Networks (GPNs) that approximate the posterior distribution using unlabeled data.
result GPNs improve epistemic uncertainty estimation and scalability.
Proposes tracking DNN weights for uncertainty estimation.
problem Discarded information during DNN training.
method Tracks weights' trajectory during optimization.
result Competitive uncertainty estimation results.
Proposes SDE framework for uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in graph neural networks.
method Introduces Latent Graph Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (LGNSDE) with Bayesian prior-posterior mechanism and Brownian motion.
result LGNSDEs provide theoretically sensible guarantees for uncertainty estimates and are robust to perturbations.
New method calibrates uncertainty in molecular property predictions.
problem Uncalibrated uncertainty estimates in molecular property predictions.
method Message Passing Neural Networks with calibrated probabilistic predictive distribution.
result Accurate molecular formation energy predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty.
NEON uses neural networks to optimize functions in infinite-dimensional spaces.
problem Optimizing composite functions in function spaces.
method NEON (Neural Epistemic Operator Networks) for sequential decision-making.
result NEON achieves state-of-the-art performance with fewer parameters.