WISER detects watermarked segments in text via epidemic change-point analysis.
problem Identifying watermarked segments in mixed-source texts.
method Epidemic change-point perspective, WISER algorithm.
result WISER outperforms state-of-the-art methods in accuracy and speed.
Paper reproduces a kernel-based scan B-statistic for online change-point detection.
problem Continuous detection of distribution changes in online data streams.
method Efficient kernel-based scan B-statistic for online change-point detection.
result Scan B-statistic outperforms parametric methods in challenging scenarios.
LAD detects anomalies in dynamic graphs using Laplacian matrix.
problem Anomaly detection in temporal graphs for real-world applications.
method LAD uses the spectrum of the Laplacian matrix to model graph snapshots and temporal dependencies.
result LAD outperforms state-of-the-art methods in synthetic and real-world datasets.
Seq2Seq models speed up epidemic model predictions.
problem Complex epidemic models are computationally expensive.
method Used deep seq2seq models as surrogates for complex models.
result Surrogates predict scenarios up to several thousand times faster.
Koopman-PINN framework improves epidemic model parameter inference and forecasting
problem Epidemic model parameter inference and forecasting
method Combining Koopman operator theory and physics-informed learning
result More accurate parameter estimation, trajectory reconstruction, and long-term forecasting
GPR models epidemic spread on logarithmic scale.
problem Modeling and predicting epidemic spread for policy decisions.
method Gaussian process regression (GPR) on logarithmic scale of infected cases.
result GPR predictions have high probability of being within 95% confidence interval for 94.29% of data.
Model for valuing options on epidemic spread.
problem Valuation of options on epidemic spread during an outbreak.
method Stochastic differential SIR model for epidemic dynamics.
result Parsimonious model for option valuation on epidemic spread.
Recently, the behavior of different epidemic models and their relation both to different types of geometries and to some biological models has been revisited . Path equations representing the behavior of epidemic models and their corresponding deviation vectors are examined. A comparison between paths and their deviati…
Study on stock market volatility and return dispersion during COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock market volatility and return dispersion.
method Used Google index to proxy epidemic impact, modeled volatility, and analyzed influencing factors of log-return.
result Volatility significantly affected by epidemic and cross-sectional return dispersion, with positive coefficients.
New model captures long-term memory effects in epidemic dynamics.
problem Identifying memory effects in disease progression and recovery.
method Physics-informed neural networks (PINN) with fractional SEIRD model.
result Fractional memory order α improves predictive performance over classical models. Deep models forecast epidemics with uncertainty quantification.
problem Accurate probabilistic forecasting of epidemics is challenging due to nonlinear temporal dependencies and spatial interactions.
method Deep spatiotemporal engression methods with geometric ergodicity and asymptotic stationarity.
result Proposed methods outperform benchmarks in point and probabilistic forecasting.
Model predicts COVID-19 cases with high accuracy using mobility data.
problem Accurate forecasting of COVID-19 cases for resource management.
method Heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility, linearization, weighted least squares.
result Extremely accurate predictions of confirmed cases at country and state levels.
Paper proposes a graph neural network for accurate long-term ILI prediction.
problem Limited long-term prediction performance and spatio-temporal dependency in existing models.
method Cross-location attention based graph neural network (Cola-GNN) for time series embeddings and location aware attentions.
result Proposed method shows strong predictive performance and interpretable results for long-term epidemic predictions.
New method combines neural nets with epidemic models for better prediction.
problem Improving epidemic prediction and forecasting using deep neural networks.
method Integrates machine learning with compartmental disease models for data-driven analysis.
result Data augmentation strategy improves neural network reliability for epidemic forecasting.
Unified framework detects changes in complex system models.
problem Accurate identification of dynamic changes in simulation models.
method Combines machine learning and process-driven simulation modeling.
result Significantly improves change point detection accuracy.
Paper uses RL to optimize ICU load during COVID-19.
problem Optimizing ICU load during a pandemic.
method Combines epidemic model, Bayesian inference, and RL for adaptive intervention levels.
result RL policies reduce ICU burden compared to historical interventions.
Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is used to identify the time indices (change points) at which the system transitions …
GOCPD detects change points by maximizing the probability of two independent models.
problem Large false discovery rates in online change point detection methods.
method GOCPD uses ternary search to find change points by maximizing the probability of two independent models.
result GOCPD accelerates CPD with logarithmic complexity for single change point detection.
Paper introduces a new method to model epidemic dynamics with varying parameters.
problem Capturing discontinuous variations in epidemic model parameters.
method Total variation regularization with Iterated Nelder--Mead optimization.
result The method accurately models epidemic dynamics with instant changes.
Method tracks change-points in crypto-assets extremes.
problem Tracking change-points in multivariate extremes.
method Statistical method for modeling change-points on crypto-assets extremes.
result Developed a method to track crypto-assets extremes.
We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in typical applied problems. Instead we p…
Paper presents neural network-based change-point detection methods.
problem Detecting change points in time series data.
method Online neural networks for change-point detection.
result Proposed methods outperform existing algorithms.
Unified model bridges mechanistic and non-mechanistic epidemic approaches.
problem Understanding the dynamics of epidemics with flexibility and interpretability.
method A mixture-based model representing time series as Gaussian mixtures, derived from a networked SIR framework.
result The model provides interpretable parameters and low prediction error, validating its use in understanding interventions.
Proposes neural SDEs with change points for better time series modeling.
problem Restrictions in modeling time series with distributional shift.
method Generative adversarial networks (GANs) for SDEs and change point detection.
result Jointly learns change points and SDE model parameters.
In this paper we present a loss-based approach to change point analysis. In particular, we look at the problem from two perspectives. The first focuses on the definition of a prior when the number of change points is known a priori. The second contribution aims to estimate the number of change points by using a loss-ba…
A new method detects changes in multivariate data using random forests.
problem Detecting changes in multivariate data.
method A computationally feasible search method using random forests and class probability predictions.
result Consistently locates change points in simulations.
Evaluates change point detection algorithms on real-world data.
problem Insufficient evaluation of change point detection algorithms on real-world time series.
method Developed a data set of 37 time series from various domains, annotated by human experts, and evaluated 14 algorithms using consistency metrics.
result Demonstrates the need for better evaluation methods in change point detection.
Cross-validation pitfalls in change-point regression are addressed with new approaches.
problem Cross-validation's prediction error-based criterion may lead to under- or over-estimation of change-points.
method Proposes two approaches: absolute error loss and modified holdout sets.
result Consistent estimation of the number of change-points under certain conditions.
A new method detects change points in time series with conceptors.
problem Detecting change points in time series with nonlinear temporal dependence.
method Use of conceptor matrix to learn baseline dynamics and identify change points.
result The method provides a consistent estimate of the true change point.
New MIP approach for efficient change-point detection.
problem Offline multiple change-point detection in data streams.
method Mixed-integer programming (MIP) for globally optimal PWL fitting.
result Provable tighter relaxations for segment assignment variables.
Improves change-point detection for high-dimensional time-series.
problem Uncertainty in latent variable estimation affects change-point detection.
method Proposes multinomial sampling to improve detection rate and reduce delay.
result Results outperform baseline method in experiments.
A conjugate Bayesian method detects change points in Hawkes processes efficiently.
problem Non-conjugacy between Hawkes process likelihood and prior causes inefficiency in change point detection.
method Data augmentation to propose a conjugate Bayesian two-step change point detection method.
result The conjugate method is more accurate and efficient than non-conjugate methods.
Model change points in time-series data with neural SDEs and variational autoencoders.
problem Modeling change points in time-series data with neural stochastic differential equations.
method Proposes a novel model formulation and training procedure based on the variational autoencoder framework, alternating between updating neural SDE parameters and change points.
result Demonstrates the expressive power of the proposed model in modeling both classical parametric SDEs and real datasets with distribution shifts.
Develops a method to detect changes in linear systems with temporal correlations.
problem Detect abrupt changes in time series data with temporal correlations.
method Data-dependent threshold for online change point detection in linear dynamical systems.
result Achieves a pre-specified upper bound on the probability of false alarms and provides a finite-sample-based bound for detection probability.
The paper develops methods to accurately locate change points in high-dimensional mean shift models.
problem Locating change points in high-dimensional mean shift models.
method Locally refitted least squares estimator, component-wise and simultaneous rates of estimation.
result Asymptotic validity of component-wise and simultaneous confidence intervals for change point parameters.
We study exponential Levy models with change-point which is a random variable, independent from initial Levy processes. On canonical space with initially enlarged filtration we describe all equivalent martingale measures for change-point model and we give the conditions for the existence of f-divergence minimal equival…
New AMP algorithm detects change points in high-dimensional GLMs.
problem Detecting change points in high-dimensional GLMs.
method Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm for estimating signals and change points.
result Characterization of AMP algorithm's performance in high-dimensional limit.
New method detects changes by maximizing cross-entropy, outperforming existing techniques.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in data streams without labeled examples.
method Maximizes cross-entropy between segments to find change points, using dynamic programming.
result Outperforms three state-of-the-art approaches on challenging datasets.
Method identifies change points in high-dimensional models using sample weights.
problem Identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models.
method Sample-weighted empirical risk minimization (Weighted ERM).
result Weighted ERM yields precise asymptotic performance characterization for Gaussian designs.
The paper tackles efficient change point detection with limited samples.
problem Identifying multiple change points with minimal queries in noisy environments.
method Adaptive algorithm that first detects likely change points and refines their locations.
result The sample complexity is jointly governed by jump magnitudes and change point positions.
New algorithms detect and react to multiple change points in online learning.
problem Learning under multiple change points in environments with unknown and frequent shifts.
method Proposed Anytime Tracking CUSUM (ATC) algorithms that balance detection of significant shifts.
result Properly tuned ATC algorithms achieve nearly minimax-optimal performance.
Unified model forecasts epidemics with spatial and temporal dynamics.
problem Limited accuracy in traditional models and lack of interpretability in deep learning models.
method CSTGNN integrates Spatio-Contact SIR model with Graph Neural Networks.
result Effective spatiotemporal epidemic forecasting with interpretability.
Paper optimizes change-point detection using learned distributions from training sequences.
problem Optimal change-point detection with unknown pre- and post-change distributions.
method Designs a change-point estimator using training sequences and test sequences.
result Optimal confidence width characterized as a function of undetected error.
Post-detection analysis identifies responsible coordinates for multivariate change-points.
problem Identifying which coordinates in multivariate time series change after a detected change-point.
method Two-sample testing procedures with nonparametric tests for Type I error control.
result Strong performance of proposed post hoc statistical procedures.
The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is provably impossible. However, it is shown that a consistent clustering method may …
New method for epidemic model inference using multinomial approximations.
problem Inference in stochastic epidemic models with partial observations.
method Recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables.
result Accuracy demonstrated through real and simulated data.
NN-CUSUM detects changes in high-dimensional data using neural networks.
problem Detecting abrupt changes in high-dimensional data.
method Neural network-based CUSUM for online change-point detection.
result NN-CUSUM performs well in detecting changes in high-dimensional data.
Existing MAP inference algorithms for determinantal point processes (DPPs) need to calculate determinants or conduct eigenvalue decomposition generally at the scale of the full kernel, which presents a great challenge for real-world applications. In this paper, we introduce a class of DPPs, called BwDPPs, that are char…