Deep neural networks improve ensemble weather forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency of ensemble weather forecasts.
method Mixed model combining subset of trajectories with deep neural networks for post-processing.
result Achieved over 14% relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
Neural network-based post-processing improves ensemble forecast sharpness
problem Reducing the width of central prediction intervals in ensemble forecasts
method Extending loss function with a penalty term
result 8.2%-12.5% reduction in width of central prediction interval
A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.
problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.
ForestPrune optimizes tree ensemble pruning for compactness and speed.
problem Large tree ensembles in predictive models consume excessive memory and reduce interpretability.
method Developed a specialized optimization algorithm to efficiently prune tree ensembles by depth layers.
result ForestPrune produces compact, high-performing models that outperform existing post-processing methods.
Enhances fairness in predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Balancing fairness and predictive performance in machine learning.
method Model ensemble-based post-processing framework.
result Framework effectively enhances fairness while maintaining predictive accuracy.
Improved wind speed forecasts for power generation using machine learning.
problem Improving the accuracy and reliability of wind speed predictions for power generation.
method A novel machine learning approach for calibrating wind speed ensemble forecasts.
result The proposed method improves the calibration and accuracy of probabilistic and point forecasts.
Improved visibility forecasts using statistical post-processing.
problem Accurate and reliable predictions of visibility are crucial in aviation and transportation.
method Calibrated ensemble forecasts using locally, semi-locally, and regionally trained POLR and MLP classifiers.
result Post-processing improves forecast skill and POLR models outperform MLPs.
In this article, we have proposed several approaches for post processing a large ensemble of prediction models or rules. The results from our simulations show that the post processing methods we have considered here are promising. We have used the techniques developed here for estimation of quantitative traits from mar…
The study improves solar irradiance forecasts for Chile using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term PV power forecasts for Chile's Atacama Desert.
method 8-member ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance using WRF model, calibrated with EMOS and DRN.
result Machine learning-based post-processing methods improve forecast accuracy and calibration.
New method improves wind and solar energy forecasts by 48 hours.
problem Volatility of wind and solar energy makes accurate forecasts difficult.
method Two-step machine learning approach to calibrate ensemble forecasts.
result Statistical post-processing improves forecast skill by at least 48 hours.
Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.
problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in wind speed prediction.
method Adapting prediction with expert advice theory to probabilistic forecasts, combining raw or post-processed ensembles, and using CRPS and Jolliffe-Primo tests.
result Combining probabilistic forecasts can lead to more reliable and skillful predictions, as shown by the Jolliffe-Primo test.
Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters of a predictive distribution are estimated from a training period. We propose a…
Deep ensembles don't necessarily improve calibration in low data regimes.
problem Calibration issues in deep learning models, especially in low data regimes.
method Examination of data-augmentation, ensembling, and post-processing calibration methods.
result Standard ensembling techniques can lead to less calibrated models in low data regimes.
Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a s…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC, however, these forecasts are often uncalibrated and exhibit worse forecast skill than ensemble forecasts of o…
Rainfall ensemble forecasts have to be skillful for both low precipitation and extreme events. We present statistical post-processing methods based on Quantile Regression Forests (QRF) and Gradient Forests (GF) with a parametric extension for heavy-tailed distributions. Our goal is to improve ensemble quality for all t…
Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction
problem Calibrated uncertainty quantification in probabilistic weather forecasts
method Conformal prediction
result Calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics
Automated decision making based on big data and machine learning (ML) algorithms can result in discriminatory decisions against certain protected groups defined upon personal data like gender, race, sexual orientation etc. Such algorithms designed to discover patterns in big data might not only pick up any encoded soci…
CNN improves medium-range temperature forecasts with limited resources.
problem Limited computational resources for high-resolution temperature forecasts.
method CNN post-processing with ensemble NWP models for bias correction and spatial downscaling.
result High-resolution (5-km) surface temperature forecasts with lead times up to 5.5 days.
Post-processing corrects bias in ML systems without retraining.
problem Correcting bias in ML systems that are already in use.
method Proposes general post-processing algorithms for individual fairness based on graph Laplacian regularization.
result Empirically, post-processing algorithms correct individual biases in large-scale NLP models while preserving accuracy.
Image post-processing is used in clinical-grade ultrasound scanners to improve image quality (e.g., reduce speckle noise and enhance contrast). These post-processing techniques vary across manufacturers and are generally kept proprietary, which presents a challenge for researchers looking to match current clinical-grad…
Merlion is a machine learning library for time series tasks.
problem Anomaly detection and forecasting on time series data.
method Unified interface for models, pre/post-processing layers, AutoML, model ensembling, live deployment simulation.
result Benchmark numbers across different models and ensembles.
Algorithm ensures demographic parity in regression without sensitive attribute data.
problem Performing regression with demographic parity constraints.
method Post-processing algorithm using accurate estimates and sensitive attribute predictor.
result Generates predictions meeting demographic parity constraint.
RAMPART ranks top-k features more accurately than existing methods.
problem Accurate ranking of important features in machine learning.
method Adaptive sequential halving strategy combined with ensembling techniques.
result RAMPART achieves the correct top-k ranking with high probability.
Risk-controlled post-processing optimizes decision policies under risk constraints.
problem Optimizing decision policies with risk constraints for better outcomes.
method Developed a post-processing algorithm that selects a threshold based on fitted fallback policy and score, leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes.
result The post-processed policy achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability and meets or nearly meets risk budgets while preserving more agreement with the baseline.
Word vectors are at the core of many natural language processing tasks. Recently, there has been interest in post-processing word vectors to enrich their semantic information. In this paper, we introduce a novel word vector post-processing technique based on matrix conceptors (Jaeger2014), a family of regularized ident…
Building a good predictive model requires an array of activities such as data imputation, feature transformations, estimator selection, hyper-parameter search and ensemble construction. Given the large, complex and heterogenous space of options, off-the-shelf optimization methods are infeasible for realistic response t…
New method corrects seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions with probabilistic models.
problem Systematic biases and errors in climate model forecasts of Arctic sea ice.
method Conditional Variational Autoencoder model to map observation distribution given biased model predictions.
result Probabilistic adjusted forecasts are better calibrated and have smaller errors.
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
New algorithm reduces bias in trained models, near-optimal performance proven.
problem Reduction of bias in trained machine learning models.
method Scalable post-processing algorithm for debiasing trained models, including deep neural networks (DNNs).
result Proven to be near-optimal by bounding its excess Bayes risk.
A fundamental result in differential privacy states that the privacy guarantees of a mechanism are preserved by any post-processing of its output. In this paper we investigate under what conditions stochastic post-processing can amplify the privacy of a mechanism. By interpreting post-processing as the application of a…
Post-processing predictors reduces calibration errors for decision-making.
problem Predictors with low calibration error for machine learning may have high error for decision-making.
method Post-processing with ε distance to calibration adds noise to make predictions differentially private.
result Post-processing achieves O(√ε) ECE and CDL, asymptotically optimal.
Learning accurate probabilistic models from data is crucial in many practical tasks in data mining. In this paper we present a new non-parametric calibration method called \textit{ensemble of near isotonic regression} (ENIR). The method can be considered as an extension of BBQ, a recently proposed calibration method, a…
New method improves decision-making accuracy without complex calculations.
problem Improving decision-making accuracy in machine learning.
method Introducing a new measure called calibration decision loss (CDLK) for structured families of post-processing functions. result Proves upper and lower bounds for natural classes K of post-processing functions. Enhances fairness in multi-output models using optimal transport.
problem Improving fairness in multi-output models like multi-task/multi-class classification and representation learning.
method Post-processing method using optimal transport mappings to move model outputs towards empirical Wasserstein barycenter.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the proposed approach on multi-task/multi-class classification and representation learning tasks.
Road extraction from very high resolution satellite (VHR) images is one of the most important topics in the field of remote sensing. In this paper, we propose an efficient Non-Local LinkNet with non-local blocks that can grasp relations between global features. This enables each spatial feature point to refer to all ot…
A scalable GP model for online uncertainty quantification over graphs.
problem Scalable uncertainty quantification over graphs with dynamic data.
method Graph-aware parametric Gaussian process model using random features and online conformal prediction.
result Improved coverage and efficient prediction sets over existing methods.
A popular methodology for building binary decision-making classifiers in the presence of imperfect information is to first construct a non-binary "scoring" classifier that is calibrated over all protected groups, and then to post-process this score to obtain a binary decision. We study the feasibility of achieving vari…
The uncertainty estimation is critical in real-world decision making applications, especially when distributional shift between the training and test data are prevalent. Many calibration methods in the literature have been proposed to improve the predictive uncertainty of DNNs which are generally not well-calibrated. H…
Unified approach adjusts classifiers to meet system-level constraints.
problem Multi-class classification under system-level constraints.
method Post-processing approach using linearly constrained stochastic program and entropic regularization.
result Finite-sample guarantees for risk and constraint satisfaction.
Develops a fair post-processing method for student success predictions.
problem Ensuring fairness in predictive student models for educational applications.
method Uses the MADD metric to improve model fairness while maintaining accuracy.
result Successfully improved fairness of predictive models for student success.
Meta-theorems validate fair regression algorithms under demographic parity constraints.
problem Regression under demographic parity constraints.
method Meta-theorems and post-processing methods.
result Fair minimax optimal regression can be achieved through post-processing.
Glioma is one of the most common types of brain tumors; it arises in the glial cells in the human brain and in the spinal cord. In addition to having a high mortality rate, glioma treatment is also very expensive. Hence, automatic and accurate segmentation and measurement from the early stages are critical in order to …
New method wraps black-box classifiers to reduce bias.
problem Reduction of bias in black-box predictions.
method Post-processing with α-trees and boosting algorithms.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in reducing bias across multiple fairness metrics.
Word embeddings learnt from large corpora have been adopted in various applications in natural language processing and served as the general input representations to learning systems. Recently, a series of post-processing methods have been proposed to boost the performance of word embeddings on similarity comparison an…