Enhanced ensemble filters use machine learning to improve accuracy in filtering models.
problem Accuracy limitations of traditional ensemble Kalman filters.
method Introduces a measure neural mapping (MNM) to map joint predicted state and observation to updated state estimates.
result Superior root-mean-square-error performance compared to leading methods in filtering models.
Sharp threshold found for Frechet mean of inhomogeneous graphs.
problem Finding the Frechet mean of inhomogeneous Erdos-Renyi random graphs.
method Thresholding the expected adjacency matrix of the ensemble.
result The Frechet mean graph of inhomogeneous Erdos-Renyi random graphs exhibits a sharp threshold.
Paper analyzes uncertainty metrics in ensemble learning for healthcare AI.
problem Selecting appropriate uncertainty metrics for ensemble learners in healthcare AI.
method Rigorous analysis of two uncertainty metrics: ensemble mean and variance.
result Ensemble mean is preferable to ensemble variance for decision making in healthcare AI.
A new ensemble filter uses transport maps and MMD optimization for high-dimensional data assimilation.
problem High-dimensional data assimilation challenges in ensemble filtering.
method Optimized Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) for transport map construction.
result Significant improvement in robustness and posterior approximation.
The recently proposed Temporal Ensembling has achieved state-of-the-art results in several semi-supervised learning benchmarks. It maintains an exponential moving average of label predictions on each training example, and penalizes predictions that are inconsistent with this target. However, because the targets change …
Improved PoC for MFLD reduces approximation error and provides model ensemble guarantees.
problem Quantifying optimization complexity in mean-field Langevin dynamics.
method Refined defective log-Sobolev inequality for neural network training.
result Improved PoC result with reduced approximation error and theoretical model ensemble guarantees.
This work studies a unified approach to ensemble aggregation using likelihood perspective.
problem Density aggregation in machine learning, focusing on improving ensemble predictions.
method Normalized generalized mean of order r in the log-likelihood framework.
result The optimal range for r is [0,1], providing a principled justification for linear and geometric pooling.
We generalize the recently discovered relationship between JT gravity and double-scaled random matrix theory to the case that the boundary theory may have time-reversal symmetry and may have fermions with or without supersymmetry. The matching between variants of JT gravity and matrix ensembles depends on the assumed s…
A new ML-based filter improves data assimilation for nonlinear systems.
problem Improving data assimilation for nonlinear systems using ensemble methods.
method Developed a machine learning-based conditional mean filter (ML-EnCMF) integrating ANN and linear functions.
result ML-EnCMF outperforms EnKF and likelihood-based EnCMF in nonlinear systems.
Neural network-based post-processing improves ensemble forecast sharpness
problem Reducing the width of central prediction intervals in ensemble forecasts
method Extending loss function with a penalty term
result 8.2%-12.5% reduction in width of central prediction interval
New metrics improve quantum ensemble learning efficiency and power.
problem Quantum ensembles' distances poorly understood due to measurement constraints.
method Introduce MMD-k hierarchy of integral probability metrics for quantum ensembles. result MMD-k requires fewer samples for full discriminative power at higher k. The recently introduced dropout training criterion for neural networks has been the subject of much attention due to its simplicity and remarkable effectiveness as a regularizer, as well as its interpretation as a training procedure for an exponentially large ensemble of networks that share parameters. In this work we …
In this paper we propose to perform model ensembling in a multiclass or a multilabel learning setting using Wasserstein (W.) barycenters. Optimal transport metrics, such as the Wasserstein distance, allow incorporating semantic side information such as word embeddings. Using W. barycenters to find the consensus between…
We investigate the variety of a portfolio of stocks in normal and extreme days of market activity. We show that the variety carries information about the market activity which is not present in the single-index model and we observe that the variety time evolution is not time reversal around the crash days. We obtain th…
Study evaluates ensemble methods for zero-shot uncertainty quantification with diffusion models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in zero-shot regression problems using diffusion models.
method Used diffusion probabilistic models for ensemble prediction and evaluated their effectiveness on various regression tasks.
result Ensemble methods consistently improve model prediction accuracy across different regression tasks.
This study proposes a method to predict ICU infections from imbalanced data using clustering-based undersampling and ensemble classifiers.
problem Predicting healthcare-associated infections in ICU patients from imbalanced data.
method Clustering-based undersampling strategy combined with ensemble classifiers.
result The proposed method outperforms other resampling techniques in predicting ICU infections.
Embedded ensembles improve neural network performance efficiently.
problem Improving neural network performance with fewer resources.
method Analyzing the wide network limit of gradient descent dynamics using Neural-Tangent-Kernel.
result Embedded ensembles exhibit two regimes: independent and collective, affecting performance.
A new method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks using Gaussian-softmax integration.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Proposes a single-model approach integrating Gaussian distribution with softmax outputs, using mean-field approximation.
result Competitive performance on uncertainty estimation tasks and outperforms many methods on out-of-distribution detection.
Bayesian Neural Networks improve geophysical model ensembles with reduced uncertainty.
problem Improving geophysical model projections and uncertainty quantification.
method Developed a Bayesian Neural Network ensemble strategy for geophysical models.
result Bayesian Neural Network ensemble outperforms existing methods in ozone prediction.
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard deviation of the ensemble daily price returns of a portfolio of stocks traded in China's stock markets on a given day. The distri…
The paper connects neural network ensembles to Bayesian inference using variational methods.
problem Explaining the behavior of ensemble methods in neural networks.
method Deriving conditions for ensemble optimization to reduce divergence to the posterior distribution.
result Ensemble methods can be a valid alternative to approximate Bayesian inference.
A new method using energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction.
problem Solving complex dynamic and stochastic programs, especially in energy systems.
method Proposes a new method based on energy distance for ensemble and scenario reduction.
result Reduced scenario sets exhibit better statistical properties for energy distance than Wasserstein distance.
Analog methods improve forecast accuracy in complex models.
problem Improving forecast accuracy in complex models like Lorenz-96.
method Constructing analogs using variational autoencoders for ensemble data assimilation.
result Constructed analogs perform as well as a full ensemble square root filter.
Improving Bayesian filtering with strictly proper scoring rules
problem Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems
method Proper scoring ensemble filter (PSEF)
result Accurate approximation of challenging filtering distributions
VGE provides a practical approach to uncertainty estimation in ensemble models.
problem Uncertainty estimation in ensemble models using additive decomposition breaks down.
method Variance-Gated Ensembles (VGE) introduces a differentiable framework with a signal-to-noise gate.
result VGE provides a Variance-Gated Margin Uncertainty (VGMU) score and Variance-Gated Normalization (VGN) layer.
Few-shot learning aims to train efficient predictive models with a few examples. The lack of training data leads to poor models that perform high-variance or low-confidence predictions. In this paper, we propose to meta-learn the ensemble of epoch-wise empirical Bayes models (E3BM) to achieve robust predictions. "Epoch…
Paper proposes an ensemble-based AIS for multimodal sampling.
problem Sampling from multimodal distributions is challenging.
method Combines AIS with population-based Monte Carlo methods.
result Improves efficiency through ensemble interaction.
CE improves climate uncertainty quantification using GCM ensembles and observational data.
problem Uncertainty in climate projections due to model inadequacies and variability.
method Conformal ensembles integrating GCM ensembles and observational data.
result CE generates statistically rigorous, easy-to-interpret uncertainty estimates.
The uncertainties in future Bitcoin price make it difficult to accurately predict the price of Bitcoin. Accurately predicting the price for Bitcoin is therefore important for decision-making process of investors and market players in the cryptocurrency market. Using historical data from 01/01/2012 to 16/08/2019, machin…
GNCL algorithm controls diversity in deep ensembles.
problem Managing bias and variance in deep ensembles.
method Generalized bias-variance decomposition for arbitrary loss functions, leading to GNCL algorithm.
result Explicit control over ensemble diversity and smooth interpolation between independent and joint training.
Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been…
Bayesian inference for neural networks improves uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
method Ensemble Kalman filter extensions and interacting particle systems.
result Effective methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks.
Class-imbalance refers to classification problems in which many more instances are available for certain classes than for others. Such imbalanced datasets require special attention because traditional classifiers generally favor the majority class which has a large number of instances. Ensemble of classifiers have been…
Stochastic mirror descent improves performance on ensemble models.
problem Improving performance of ensemble models using stochastic mirror descent.
method Utilizes mirror potential to influence training algorithm's implicit bias, mapping evolution to continuous time process.
result Converges to a nonlinear PDE in asymptotic regime of large networks, with mirror potential affecting gradient flow.
Ensemble Kalman Filter improves GPSSM inference for online learning.
problem Non-mean-field variational inference issues in GPSSM.
method Combining EnKF with NMF variational inference.
result Improved online learning performance and data-fitting accuracy.
The paper develops a new algorithm for RBMs using dynamical mean-field theory.
problem Learning in Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) with complex dependencies.
method Dynamical mean-field theory applied to RBMs with rectangular coupling matrices drawn from a bi-rotation invariant ensemble.
result The algorithm converges globally under a stability criterion, with rates matching numerical simulations.
Deep learning relies on good initialization schemes and hyperparameter choices prior to training a neural network. Random weight initializations induce random network ensembles, which give rise to the trainability, training speed, and sometimes also generalization ability of an instance. In addition, such ensembles pro…
Study forecasts vegetable prices in Nepal using a novel index and ensemble model.
problem High volatility and cultural influences on agricultural commodity prices.
method Developed KVPI, created features, evaluated multiple models, introduced Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble.
result Achieved RMSE of 1.771, MAPE of 0.68%, and R-squared of 0.845 at 90-day horizon.
GPR ensemble method predicts stock returns efficiently.
problem Predicting stock returns using machine learning.
method Ensemble Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for online learning.
result Method outperforms existing models in R-squared and Sharpe ratio. Paper introduces EnDKF for more accurate pose tracking.
problem Accurate pose tracking with directional uncertainty.
method EnDKF integrates unit-quaternion attitude representation for better directional uncertainty capture.
result Significant reduction in error compared to traditional methods.
Ensemble of regression trees have become popular statistical tools for the estimation of conditional mean given a set of predictors. However, quantile regression trees and their ensembles have not yet garnered much attention despite the increasing popularity of the linear quantile regression model. This work proposes a…
This paper improves deep learning model consistency through ensemble methods.
problem Consistency and correct-consistency issues in deep learning models.
method Formal definition of consistency and correct-consistency, proving ensemble improvement, proposing dynamic snapshot ensemble method.
result Ensemble methods can improve correct-consistency of deep learning models.
Meta-learning predicts optimal ensemble size and methods for time series forecasting.
problem Finding the best ensemble of time series forecasting methods.
method Two-step approach using meta-learning to predict ensemble size and methods.
result Meta-learning outperformed benchmarks in forecasting errors for all data types and horizons.
Unified neural network for linear and nonlinear dimension reduction.
problem Efficiently perform linear and nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction.
method Belted and Ensembled Neural Network (BENN) framework.
result Unified framework for both linear and nonlinear dimension reduction.
Caus-Modens uses deep ensembles to better predict causal outcomes in hidden confounding scenarios.
problem Predicting causal outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Caus-Modens employs a modulated ensemble approach to improve prediction intervals for causal outcomes using sensitivity models.
result Caus-Modens provides tighter prediction intervals for causal outcomes compared to existing methods.
Ensemble learning use multiple algorithms to obtain better predictive performance than any single one of its constituent algorithms could. With growing popularity of deep learning, researchers have started to ensemble them for various purposes. Few if any, however, has used the deep learning approach as a means to ense…
New method uses CNNs to estimate graph means.
problem Estimating the mean of graph-valued data.
method Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for graph morphology learning.
result CNNs reliably recover the sample Frechet mean.
Improved accuracy in machine learning with Cross-Cluster Weighted Forests.
problem Improving accuracy in machine learning algorithms for datasets with clusters.
method Ensembling Random Forest learners trained on clusters determined by k-means.
result Significant improvements in accuracy and generalizability over traditional Random Forest.