Study simulates Variance Gamma processes for energy derivatives pricing.
problem Simulating Variance Gamma processes for accurate energy derivative pricing.
method Three-step procedure to relate self-decomposability to increments, derived from Qu et al. (2019). Exact simulation of skeleton of Variance Gamma and symmetric Variance Gamma driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
result Exact simulation of Variance Gamma and related processes without numerical inversion.
The paper prices energy spread options using a complex stochastic model.
problem Pricing energy spread options with specific stochastic dynamics.
method Uses an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by variance gamma processes, applying the Esscher transform and FFT method.
result Derives an analytical formula for pricing forwards and spread options.
Study smooth linear statistics on random covers of hyperbolic surfaces, showing central limit and variance results.
problem Analyzing fluctuations and energy variance of random covers of compact hyperbolic surfaces.
method Examining fluctuations in a small energy window around a fixed energy level, considering the variance of a typical surface, using a double limit where n and L go to infinity. result Distribution of fluctuations tends to a Gaussian with variance of GOE/GUE, and energy variance of a typical random n-cover is that of GOE/GUE. Study shows energy levels on hyperbolic surfaces follow GOE fluctuations.
problem Understanding energy level fluctuations on hyperbolic surfaces.
method Analysis of Laplace eigenvalues on hyperbolic surfaces, using GOE random matrix theory.
result Energy variance on typical hyperbolic surfaces closely matches GOE fluctuations.
Energy markets are strategic to governments and economic development. Several commodities compete as substitutable energy sources and energy diversifiers. Such competition reduces the energy vulnerability of countries as well as portfolios' risk exposure. Vulnerability results mainly from price trends and fluctuations,…
New model uses variance-Hawkes process to fit energy market returns.
problem Modeling clustering effects in financial markets.
method Defining and fitting a variance-Hawkes process to energy market returns.
result Demonstrated that variance-Hawkes process can capture clustering effects.
Energy companies need efficient procedures to perform market calibration of stochastic models for commodities. If the Black framework is chosen for option pricing, the bottleneck of the market calibration is the computation of the variance of the asset. Energy commodities are commonly represented by multi-factor linear…
SRFE clarifies KL divergences without unifying learning frameworks.
problem Inductive biases of KL divergences and their limitations.
method Introducing SRFE, a log-moment-based functional of the likelihood ratio.
result SRFE recovers KL divergences as limits and reveals a mean-variance tradeoff.
BNEM improves Boltzmann sampler efficiency.
problem Generating IID samples from Boltzmann distributions efficiently.
method Bootstrapped Noised Energy Matching (NEM) combined with diffusion-based learning and bootstrapping.
result BNEM achieves state-of-the-art performance with improved robustness.
iEFM trains CNF models from unnormalized densities efficiently.
problem Training generators from energy functions or unnormalized densities.
method Iterated energy-based flow matching (iEFM) with simulation-free objective.
result iEFM outperforms existing methods in probabilistic modeling.
Improved reSGLD accelerates convergence in non-convex learning problems.
problem Inefficient swaps due to noisy energy estimators in reSGLD.
method Variance reduction for noisy energy estimators, theoretical analysis, and numerical experiments.
result Exponential acceleration in convergence for non-convex learning problems.
We reduce variance in Bures-Wasserstein variational inference.
problem High variance in Monte Carlo approximations of Bures-Wasserstein gradients.
method Control variates to reduce variance in the forward step.
result Proposed estimator reduces variance by orders of magnitude.
FEAT estimates free energy using adaptive transports.
problem Estimating free energy across scientific domains.
method Uses learned transports and stochastic interpolants.
result Provides consistent, minimum-variance estimators.
Proposes linking energy and force uncertainty in deep learning potentials.
problem Uncertainty in predicted energies and forces in machine learning models.
method Introduces a spatially correlated noise process to link energy and force uncertainty.
result Demonstrates the approach on molecular datasets, linking energy and force uncertainties.
The article prices exchange options using variance gamma-like models.
problem Pricing exchange options under specific stochastic processes.
method Derives formulas for variance gamma and variance gamma++ processes, constructs multidimensional versions, calibrates parameters with real data.
result Closed formulas and numerical methods for evaluating exchange options.
The heuristic identification of peaks from noisy complex spectra often leads to misunderstanding of the physical and chemical properties of matter. In this paper, we propose a framework based on Bayesian inference, which enables us to separate multipeak spectra into single peaks statistically and consists of two steps.…
New bounds show SGD can match deterministic gradient descent's convergence rate.
problem Optimizing SGD convergence rate under strong convexity and smoothness.
method Computer-aided Lyapunov analysis, focusing on bias-optimal bounds.
result SGD achieves optimal convergence rate in bias terms for a wide range of step-sizes.
We show that k-means (Lloyd's algorithm) is obtained as a special case when truncated variational EM approximations are applied to Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with isotropic Gaussians. In contrast to the standard way to relate k-means and GMMs, the provided derivation shows that it is not required to consider Gau…
New bin-wise scaling methods improve prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning.
problem Improving prediction uncertainty calibration for machine learning regression.
method Adaptations of Binwise Variance Scaling (BVS) with alternative loss functions and feature-based binning.
result Improved adaptivity and consistency in prediction uncertainty calibration.
Estimates uncertainty in bounding box regression for object detection.
problem Reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks.
method Training variance networks with energy score as a proper scoring rule.
result Energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions.
Improved HGF networks avoid negative precision errors in volatility updates.
problem Negative posterior precision errors in volatility-coupled nodes of HGF networks.
method Introduced a modified quadratic approximation to variational energy.
result Robust update equations across parameter space that track posterior faithfully.
Proposes a new method to estimate Bayesian neural network depth.
problem Estimating the depth of Bayesian neural networks.
method Uses a discrete truncated normal distribution to learn depth mean and variance, inferring posterior distributions by minimizing variational free energy.
result Improves test accuracy and reduces posterior depth variance on the spiral dataset.
Free energy perturbation (FEP) was proposed by Zwanzig more than six decades ago as a method to estimate free energy differences, and has since inspired a huge body of related methods that use it as an integral building block. Being an importance sampling based estimator, however, FEP suffers from a severe limitation: …
Introduces a new Lévy process for modeling illiquid markets.
problem Modeling dynamic of assets in illiquid markets.
method Introduces Variance Gamma++ process, a new Lévy process, and provides efficient path simulation algorithms.
result Efficient pricing formula and parameter estimation for European options.
Techniques for reducing the variance of gradient estimates used in stochastic programming algorithms for convex finite-sum problems have received a great deal of attention in recent years. By leveraging dissipativity theory from control, we provide a new perspective on two important variance-reduction algorithms: SVRG …
Federated learning calibrates insurance indices from renewable energy producers' data.
problem Calibrating parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses.
method Federated learning framework using Tweedie GLMs and distributed optimization.
result Federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity.
GOE statistics emerge from surface moduli space averages.
problem Understanding spectral statistics on hyperbolic surfaces.
method Defined a smooth linear statistic, averaged over moduli space, and analyzed variance.
result GOE statistics are recovered in the large genus and high energy limits.
Paper introduces REED for noncoherent OTA-FL, reducing latency without phase alignment.
problem Noncoherent OTA-FL requires signed model updates without phase alignment.
method Introduces REED for continuous signed aggregation using resource-element energy difference.
result Exact variance laws for REED and chip-diverse extension in Rayleigh fading.
Bayesian models' singular fluctuation is shown to be akin to specific heat, influencing model complexity and generalization.
problem Understanding the thermodynamic interpretation of singular fluctuation in Bayesian models.
method Showed singular fluctuation as the curvature of Bayesian free energy and variance of log-likelihood observable under a Gibbs posterior.
result Singular fluctuation is the statistical analogue of specific heat, controlling model complexity and generalization.
We study the dynamics of correlation and variance in systems under the load of environmental factors. A universal effect in ensembles of similar systems under the load of similar factors is described: in crisis, typically, even before obvious symptoms of crisis appear, correlation increases, and, at the same time, vari…
Calibrates historical and implied correlations in energy markets.
problem Challenges in aligning historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles.
method Multiplicative multi-factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton model combined with stochastic volatility from lifted Heston model, using Kemna-Vorst approximation and Fourier-based techniques.
result Remarkable joint historical and implied calibration fits on the German power market.
NE-GMM uses ES and GMM to improve uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in estimating mean and variance of complex distributions.
method Integrates Gaussian Mixture Model with Energy Score.
result NE-GMM outperforms in predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
This work optimizes statistical inference with neural networks for high-energy physics data.
problem Optimal dimensionality reduction with minimal loss of information in the presence of systematic uncertainties.
method Neural network optimization based on binned Poisson likelihoods with nuisance parameters.
result Estimates of parameters of interest close to optimal.
Commodity ETFs' portfolio optimization under heavy-tailed returns.
problem Optimizing commodity ETF portfolios under heavy-tailed return behavior.
method Passive buy-and-hold vs. rolling-window optimized portfolios.
result Improved risk-adjusted performance with minimum-risk and CVaR-based portfolios.
The paper studies scaling limits of Wasserstein metrics on Gaussian mixture models.
problem Understanding the scaling limits of Wasserstein metrics on Gaussian mixture models.
method Scaling limit approach on Gaussian mixture models, including inhomogeneous and extended models.
result Existence of the limit of the Wasserstein metric after renormalization for GMMs with zero variance.
Analog method solves portfolio optimization problems faster and more efficiently.
problem Accurate covariance matrix estimation and fast optimal portfolio selection for financial applications.
method Two-step process using equilibrium propagation and analog Hopfield networks.
result Fully analog pipeline calculates optimal portfolios in energy-efficient manner.
We propose a general framework for the estimation of observables with generative neural samplers focusing on modern deep generative neural networks that provide an exact sampling probability. In this framework, we present asymptotically unbiased estimators for generic observables, including those that explicitly depend…
A new path gradient estimator speeds up normalizing flows without sacrificing accuracy.
problem High computational cost and limited scalability of path gradient estimators for normalizing flows.
method Proposed a fast path gradient estimator that improves computational efficiency and scalability.
result The new estimator achieves superior performance and reduced variance across various applications.
Enhanced X-ray polarimetry with deep learning for better exposure times.
problem Improving sensitivity of X-ray telescopic observations with imaging polarimeters.
method A weighted maximum likelihood combination of predictions from a deep ensemble of ResNet convolutional neural networks trained on Monte Carlo event simulations.
result Improves effective exposure times by ~45% for power-law source spectra.
Analog BNNs perform similarly regardless of noise distribution shape.
problem Difficulty in precisely controlling noise distribution shape in analog devices.
method Used real device noise as the variational distribution in MFVI training.
result Predictive distributions converge to the same distribution regardless of noise shape.
Unified thermodynamic approach to Transformer attention dynamics.
problem Understanding the statistical mechanics of Transformer attention.
method Constructing a Lagrangian on the information manifold to analyze attention dynamics.
result Establishes a formal correspondence between scaled dot-product attention and canonical ensemble statistics.
THRML uses energy-based models for index tracking, reducing portfolio tracking error and improving returns.
problem NP-hard combinatorial optimization in portfolio optimization under cardinality constraints.
method THRML reformulates index tracking as probabilistic inference on an Ising Hamiltonian, using GPU-accelerated block Gibbs sampling.
result THRML achieves 4.31 percent annualized tracking error compared to 5.66-6.30 percent for baselines, with 128.63 percent total return.
New method controls renewable energy storage and portfolio selection with probabilistic constraints.
problem Control of McKean-Vlasov dynamics with probabilistic state constraints.
method Level-set approach for exact penalization and running maximum/integral cost.
result Extension to mean-field setting with machine learning algorithm.
DNFS trains efficient samplers for discrete distributions using locally equivariant Transformers.
problem Sampling from unnormalised discrete distributions.
method DNFS learns a rate matrix to satisfy the Kolmogorov equation, using control variates and locally equivariant Transformers.
result DNFS achieves efficient and effective sampling across various applications.
Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) are two risk measures which are widely used in the practice of risk management. This paper deals with the problem of computing both VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation (with decreasing steps): we propose a first Robbins-Monro procedure based on Rockaffela…
SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.
The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
problem Examining the relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
method Used unit root and cointegration tests, ARDL cointegration technique, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.
result There is a long-run relationship with unidirectional causality from Dubai crude oil to US natural gas.
DriftLite improves inference quality of diffusion models without retraining.
problem Adapting pre-trained diffusion models to new target distributions without retraining.
method Lightweight, training-free particle-based approach that steers inference dynamics with optimal stability control.
result Consistently reduces variance and improves sample quality over existing methods.