A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
EBPs model exchangeable data with flexible distributions.
New sampler tackles complex discrete energy landscapes efficiently.
Many recent models of trade dynamics use the simple idea of wealth exchanges among economic agents in order to obtain a stable or equilibrium distribution of wealth among the agents. In particular, a plain analogy compares the wealth in a society with the energy in a physical system, and the trade between agents to the…
Study finds relevance of exchange and inflation rates to economic factors.
Paper develops a new fluid flow model with energy exchange through boundaries.
We discuss the equivalence between kinetic wealth-exchange models, in which agents exchange wealth during trades, and mechanical models of particles, exchanging energy during collisions. The universality of the underlying dynamics is shown both through a variational approach based on the minimization of the Boltzmann e…
Improved reSGLD accelerates convergence in non-convex learning problems.
Many models of market dynamics make use of the idea of wealth exchanges among economic agents. A simple analogy compares the wealth in a society with the energy in a physical system, and the trade between agents to the energy exchange between molecules during collisions. However, while in physical systems the equiparti…
A framework uses deep reinforcement learning to optimize energy storage in intraday markets.
Inequality persists as wealth concentrates in a few agents.
New method trains deep neural networks for non-interacting kinetic-energy functionals in DFT.
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index IS…
A class of conserved models of wealth distributions are studied where wealth (or money) is assumed to be exchanged between a pair of agents in a population like the elastically colliding molecules of a gas exchanging energy. All sorts of distributions from exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) to something like Gamma distribut…
This paper investigates the autonomous control of massive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for mission-critical applications (e.g., dispatching many UAVs from a source to a destination for firefighting). Achieving their fast travel and low motion energy without inter-UAV collision under wind perturbation is a daunting c…
The article prices exchange options using variance gamma-like models.
In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which enables traders to include the EXAA price into their calculations. For each market…
EBM model for functional data using path measure tilting.
This paper introduces the class of volatility modulated Lévy-driven Volterra (VMLV) processes and their important subclass of Lévy semistationary (LSS) processes as a new framework for modelling energy spot prices. The main modelling idea consists of four principles: First, deseasonalised spot prices can be modelled di…
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Study improves exchange rate forecasting using machine learning and interpretable methods.
New algorithm speeds up MCMC for deep learning models.
A purely algebraic construction of super-energy tensors for arbitrary fields is presented in any dimensions. These tensors have good mathematical and physical properties, and they can be used in any theory having as basic arena an n-dimensional manifold with a metric of Lorentzian signature. In general, the completely …
Machine learning and deep learning infer surface/groundwater exchange from temperature data.
Increasingly, a huge amount of statistics have been gathered which clearly indicates that income and wealth distributions in various countries or societies follow a robust pattern, close to the Gibbs distribution of energy in an ideal gas in equilibrium. However, it also deviates in the low income and more significantl…
In this paper, the problem of energy efficient transmission and computation resource allocation for federated learning (FL) over wireless communication networks is investigated. In the considered model, each user exploits limited local computational resources to train a local FL model with its collected data and, then,…
The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European electricity production dominated by renewable sources, it is of paramount import…
In this article, we consider the limit of quasi-local conserved quantities [31,9] at the infinity of an asymptotically hyperbolic initial data set in general relativity. These give notions of total energy-momentum, angular momentum, and center of mass. Our assumption on the asymptotics is less stringent than any previo…
Hybrid approach improves probabilistic forecasts for electricity trading.
Detect anomalies in complex networks using topological subspace detectors.
The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like…
LSCI provides locally adaptive prediction sets for operator models with tighter coverage.
The paper investigates non-linear and heavy-tailed predictability in transition-energy financial markets.
This thesis tackles non-convex Bayesian learning via scalable dynamic importance sampling algorithms.
This work improves communication efficiency in federated learning over wireless networks by optimizing energy consumption.
Consider a compact Riemannian manifold with boundary endowed with a magnetic field. A path taken by a particle of unit charge, mass, and energy is called a magnetic geodesic. It is shown that if everything is real-analytic, the topology, metric, and magnetic field are uniquely determined by the scattering relation of t…
In sensor networks, it is not always practical to set up a fusion center. Therefore, there is need for fully decentralized clustering algorithms. Decentralized clustering algorithms should minimize the amount of data exchanged between sensors in order to reduce sensor energy consumption. In this respect, we propose one…
Neural message passing on molecular graphs is one of the most promising methods for predicting formation energy and other properties of molecules and materials. In this work we extend the neural message passing model with an edge update network which allows the information exchanged between atoms to depend on the hidde…
Short-term probabilistic forecasting of German electricity imbalance prices.
Enhances gradient-based discrete samplers with parallel tempering for multimodal distributions.
Introduces GFC for learning complex dynamical systems with geometric constraints.
In this paper we introduce an additive two-factor model for electricity futures prices based on Normal Inverse Gaussian Lévy processes, that fulfills a no-overlapping-arbitrage (NOA) condition. We compute European option prices by Fourier transform methods, introduce a specific calibration procedure that takes into acc…
One major hurdle in the road toward a low carbon economy is the present entanglement of developed economies with oil. This tight relationship is mirrored in the correlation between most of economic indicators with oil price. This paper addresses the role of oil compared to the other three main energy commodities -coal,…
We investigate the behavior of stocks in daily price-limited stock markets by purposing a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic model. The stock price is presumed to oscillate and damp in a quantum spatial-periodic harmonic oscillator potential well. Complicated non-linear relations including inter-band positive correlatio…
In this paper analytic formulas for electricity derivatives are calculated. To this end, we assume that electricity spot prices follow a 3-regime Markov regime-switching model with independent spikes and drops and periodic transition matrix. Since the classical derivatives pricing methodology cannot be used in case of …
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the financialization of futures markets in the early 2000s, we investigate if these extant mod…
The heuristic identification of peaks from noisy complex spectra often leads to misunderstanding of the physical and chemical properties of matter. In this paper, we propose a framework based on Bayesian inference, which enables us to separate multipeak spectra into single peaks statistically and consists of two steps.…
The exchange algorithm is studied for its convergence and asymptotic variance.
Study on pricing American Exchange options using Lévy processes.