A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with endogenous noise tracker.
In this article we consider the volatility inference in the presence of both market microstructure noise and endogenous time. Estimators of the integrated volatility in such a setting are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are studied. Our proposed estimator is compared with the existing popular volatility estim…
New method tackles endogeneity in online learning with improved regret bounds.
Commercial activity trackers are set to become an essential tool in health research, due to increasing availability in the general population. The corresponding vast amounts of mostly unlabeled data pose a challenge to statistical modeling approaches. To investigate the feasibility of deep learning approaches for unsup…
We address microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, stochastic, modeling of the financial markets combining it with the exogenous noise. The interplay between the endogenous dynamics of agents and the exogenous noise is the primary mechanism responsible for the observed long-range dependence and statistical propertie…
In this paper, we propose a hierarchical feature-aware tracking framework for efficient visual tracking. Recent years, ensembled trackers which combine multiple component trackers have achieved impressive performance. In ensembled trackers, the decision of results is usually a post-event process, i.e., tracking result …
In this paper we outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate price time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically through a process of proliferation and mutation, with each member attempting to map to trends in price movements. Successful trackers fee…
Develops a theory linking managers' disclosures to market pricing.
Method identifies unknown intervention targets in structural causal models from diverse data.
The paper optimizes asset selection for index trackers and enhanced trackers with varying cardinality constraints.
Automatic detection of emotion has the potential to revolutionize mental health and wellbeing. Recent work has been successful in predicting affect from unimodal electrocardiogram (ECG) data. However, to be immediately relevant for real-world applications, physiology-based emotion detection must make use of ubiquitous …
The fundamental frequency (F0) represents pitch in speech that determines prosodic characteristics of speech and is needed in various tasks for speech analysis and synthesis. Despite decades of research on this topic, F0 estimation at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) in unexpected noise conditions remains difficult. T…
PiVoT improves real-time multi-object detection and tracking in clutter.
A nonlinear differential equation of Sornette-Ide type with noise, for a complex variable, yields endogenous crashes, preceded by roughly log-periodic oscillations in the real part, and a strong increase in the imaginary part. The latter is interpreted as the trader expectation.
Dynamic Influence Tracker measures changing sample importance during model training.
We develop a general class of noise-robust estimators based on the existing estimators in the non-noisy high-frequency data literature. The microstructure noise is a parametric function of the limit order book. The noise-robust estimators are constructed as plug-in versions of their counterparts, where we replace the e…
We explore solutions for automated labeling of content in bug trackers and customer support systems. In order to do that, we classify content in terms of several criteria, such as priority or product area. In the first part of the paper, we provide an overview of existing methods used for text classification. These met…
Recent advances in visual tracking are based on siamese feature extractors and template matching. For this category of trackers, latest research focuses on better feature embeddings and similarity measures. In this work, we focus on building holistic object representations for tracking. We propose a framework that is d…
The fundamental frequency (F0) contour of speech is a key aspect to represent speech prosody that finds use in speech and spoken language analysis such as voice conversion and speech synthesis as well as speaker and language identification. This work proposes new methods to estimate the F0 contour of speech using deep …
We study the price-setting problem of market makers under risk neutrality and perfect competition in continuous time. Thereby we follow the classic Glosten-Milgrom model that defines bid and ask prices as expectations of a true value of the asset given the market makers' partial information that includes the customers …
The log-periodic power law (LPPL) is a model of asset prices during endogenous bubbles. A major open issue is to verify the presence of LPPL in price sequences and to estimate the LPPL parameters. Estimation is complicated by the fact that daily LPPL returns are typically orders of magnitude smaller than measured price…
This work enables privacy-preserving model learning from single samples per client.
In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility…
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
We propose a dynamic mean field model for `systemic risk' in large financial systems, which we derive from a system of interacting diffusions on the positive half-line with an absorbing boundary at the origin. These diffusions represent the distances-to-default of financial institutions and absorption at zero correspon…
Endogenous randomness emerges from adversarial market learning.
Most real life systems have a random component: the multitude of endogenous and exogenous factors influencing them result in stochastic fluctuations of the parameters determining their dynamics. These empirical systems are in many cases subject to noise of multiplicative nature. The special properties of multiplicative…
Dialogue State Tracking (DST) is a core component of virtual assistants such as Alexa or Siri. To accomplish various tasks, these assistants need to support an increasing number of services and APIs. The Schema-Guided State Tracking track of the 8th Dialogue System Technology Challenge highlighted the DST problem for u…
Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big Data intro…
Transformers can handle endogeneity in linear regression using IV methods.
ABIDES-MARL uses MARL to study market behavior in a realistic financial simulation.
SPO optimizes LLMs by eliminating group-based baselines and variance issues.
Easy conditions found for simplifying complex systems.
New method improves EBMs for regression tasks.
Model strategic interactions between market makers and traders to optimize execution.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
Analyzes how economic policies affect wealth distribution in Bitcoin token economy.
Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting from an underlying chaotic dynamics or from a stochastic forcing origin which ma…
This paper models financial contagion with endogenously determined market liquidity.
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
Study classifies stock price jumps as exogenous or endogenous using news data.
We introduce a model of super-exponential financial bubbles with two assets (risky and risk-free), in which rational investors and noise traders co-exist. Rational investors form expectations on the return and risk of a risky asset and maximize their constant relative risk aversion expected utility with respect to thei…
We have developed an efficient algorithm for the maximum likelihood joint tracking and association problem in a strong clutter for GMTI data. By using an iterative procedure of the dynamic logic process "from vague-to-crisp," the new tracker overcomes combinatorial complexity of tracking in highly-cluttered scenarios a…
Test for linearizing 2-input systems with 2D feedback.
Paper corrects bias in online learning algorithms with endogenous data.
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 as well as smaller volatility bursts? Using a …
New method identifies cause-effect relations in multivariate time series data.
A new boosting method corrects endogeneity bias in instrumental variable regression.