Easy conditions found for simplifying complex systems.
problem Linearizing complex two-input systems.
method Endogenous dynamic feedback with a dimension of at most two.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for linearizability.
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48 results for “endogenous dynamics”
Test for linearizing 2-input systems with 2D feedback.
problem Linearizability of two-input systems by feedback.
method Algorithmic test for 2D endogenous feedback.
result Systematic derivation of flat outputs.
Endogenous business cycles explain higher comovement across countries.
problem Standard models struggle to explain high comovement in business cycles across countries.
method Developed a demand-driven reduced-form model with strategic complementarities and international trade linkages.
result Combining endogenous business cycles with exogenous shocks matches empirical comovement levels.
Study classifies stock price jumps as exogenous or endogenous using news data.
problem Differentiating between exogenous and endogenous price jumps.
method Synchronized news data with order book data to analyze stock price movements.
result Exogenous jumps are abrupt and follow a decaying power-law, while endogenous jumps are progressively accelerating.
Paper corrects bias in online learning algorithms with endogenous data.
problem Dynamic selection problems in online learning algorithms with endogenous data.
method Instrumental-variable-based algorithm to correct bias, proving central limit theorem.
result Obtains true parameter values and low regret levels.
The paper models market crashes as phase transitions, finding dynamic transitions offer better predictions.
problem Understanding and predicting extreme financial events like market crashes.
method Employing phase transition theory, focusing on endogenous crashes, and comparing DPT, CPT, and SPT.
result Dynamic phase transitions provide more accurate predictions of market crashes compared to critical and stochastic models.
Endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes: An empirical analysis of the Chinese stock marketphysics.soc-ph
A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in exponents diff…
We present a model that investigates the spontaneous emergence of randomness in equity market microstructure. The phase space analysis of our model exposes an endogenous source of fluctuation in price and volume. We formulate a control problem for maximizing price regularity and stability while minimizing entanglement …
In order to disentangle the internal dynamics from exogenous factors within the Autoregressive Conditional Duration (ACD) model, we present an effective measure of endogeneity. Inspired from the Hawkes model, this measure is defined as the average fraction of events that are triggered due to internal feedback mechanism…
Model shows how banks' fears of future defaults can cause immediate financial stress.
problem How banks' future default worries cause immediate financial stress.
method Dynamic interbank model with endogenous distress contagion, mark-to-market valuation adjustment, forward-backward approach.
result Distress contagion acts as a stochastic volatility term leading to clustering and down-market spikes.
New RL algorithms correct bias in dynamic data analysis.
problem Dynamic data generation and analysis create endogeneity issues.
method Instrument variable (IV)-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms.
result Established theoretical properties of IV-RL algorithms.
Endogeneous Versus Exogeneous Shocks in Systems with Memorycond-mat.stat-mech
Systems with long-range persistence and memory are shown to exhibit different precursory as well as recovery patterns in response to shocks of exogeneous versus endogeneous origins. By endogeneous, we envision either fluctuations resulting from an underlying chaotic dynamics or from a stochastic forcing origin which ma…
Study shows bifurcating price dynamics in ASME with traders.
problem Understanding price dynamics in artificial stock markets.
method Agent-based model of endogenous traders interacting through a LOB.
result Bistability in price equilibria: zero-price and persistent positive-price states.
We address microscopic, agent based, and macroscopic, stochastic, modeling of the financial markets combining it with the exogenous noise. The interplay between the endogenous dynamics of agents and the exogenous noise is the primary mechanism responsible for the observed long-range dependence and statistical propertie…
The study explains how market-makers' hedging affects stock volatility during gamma-squeeze events.
problem Endogenous volatility amplification in option markets during gamma-squeeze events.
method Developed a theoretical framework linking hedging behavior and market turbulence, incorporating beta-normalized volatility.
result Low-beta stocks amplify volatility more during gamma-squeeze events.
We propose a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, extending the recent work of Cont and de Larrard (2013), where the price dynamics are endogenous, resulting from market transactions. We also show that the conditional diffusion limit of the price process is the so-called Brownian meander.
This work explains crises in markets without external news using bounded rational agents.
problem Inability to model out-of-equilibrium dynamics in economic markets.
method Modeling bounded rational strategic reasoning in multi-agent market games.
result Bounded rational strategic reasoning can lead to endogenously emerging crises.
Model analyzes Proof-of-Stake network dynamics and speculative capital effects on token prices.
problem Understanding and managing price dynamics in Proof-of-Stake networks.
method Developed an open-economy macroeconomic model to analyze Proof-of-Stake dynamics and speculative capital effects.
result Speculative capital can shift staked-token ownership, potentially improving consensus decentralization.
AC-State discovers minimal latent state for control.
problem Discover minimal latent state from sensory information.
method Multi-step inverse model with information bottleneck.
result Guaranteed discovery of control-endogenous latent states.
This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we seek to incorporate into the macroeconomic framework a dynamic stock market model …
We introduce a new measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes are due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous news. For this, we calibrate the self-excited conditional Poisson Hawkes model, whi…
This paper investigates the relationship between private and public investment in R&D, while taking into account the effect of several instruments policies such as subsidies and taxes. We design a new look of knowledge spillovers and R&D cooperation to explain the contribution of public and private R&D on growth. We pr…
In this paper we investigate the endogenous information contained in four liquidity variables at a five minutes time scale on equity markets around the world: the traded volume, the bid-ask spread, the volatility and the volume at first limits of the orderbook. In the spirit of Granger causality, we measure the level o…
Modeling financial bubbles and crashes with a cubic momentum function.
problem Capturing the micro-level dynamics of investor behavior and panic selling.
method Introducing a cubic function of market momentum to model trend-following and sudden crashes.
result The model successfully replicates complex, nonlinear bubble dynamics.
The paper tackles reinforcement learning with exogenous variables and rewards.
problem Exogenous state variables and rewards slow reinforcement learning by introducing uncontrolled variation.
method Formalizes exogenous state variables and rewards, decomposes MDP into exogenous and endogenous components, and introduces algorithms to discover these components.
result Optimal policies for the endogenous MDP are also optimal for the original MDP, but the endogenous MDP is easier to solve due to reduced variance.
Market depth and price dynamics: A notecond-mat.other
This note explores the consequences of nonlinear price impact functions on price dynamics within the chartist-fundamentalist framework. Price impact functions may be nonlinear with respect to trading volume. As indicated by recent empirical studies, a given transaction may cause a large (small) price change if market d…
Investigates how FDI and R&D affect host countries' growth.
problem Host countries may fall into a middle-income trap if they focus solely on FDI.
method Optimal growth model with FDI and R&D.
result R&D investment is crucial for sustained growth in host countries.
Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium with endogenous noise tracker.
problem Existence of incomplete Radner equilibrium in a model with endogenous noise tracker.
method Proved existence through a coupled system of ODEs, reduced to two coupled ODEs.
result Endogenous noise tracker leads to higher aggregate welfare for large stock supply.
A method to identify new classes of price jumps in financial markets.
problem Separating endogenous and exogenous causes of price jumps.
method Wavelet-based representation of jump time-series.
result Identification of new classes of jumps and investigation of co-jumps.
We present an agent behavior based microscopic model that induces jumps, spikes and high volatility phases in the price process of a traded asset. We transfer dynamics of thermally activated jumps of an unexcited/ excited two state system discussed in the context of quantum mechanics to agent socio-economic behavior an…
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
problem Predicting individual risk using longitudinal patient history.
method Random survival forests with time-fixed features from longitudinal predictors.
result DynForest provides accurate individual event probability predictions.
The paper discusses various practical consequences of treating economics and finance as an inherently dynamic and chaotic system. On the theoretical side this looks at the general applicability of the market-making pricing approach to economics in general. The paper also discuses the consequences of the endogenous crea…
Transformers can handle endogeneity in linear regression using IV methods.
problem Endogeneity in in-context linear regression models.
method Transformer architecture with gradient-based bi-level optimization and in-context pretraining.
result Transformers provide more robust predictions and estimates than 2SLS in endogenous scenarios.
Model shows AI adoption amplifies financial market risk through prediction, herding, and cognitive dependency.
problem Systemic risk in financial markets due to AI adoption.
method Developed a unified model within an extended rational expectations framework, incorporating endogenous adoption, performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency.
result Systemic risk multiplier grows superlinearly with AI penetration, implying tail-loss amplification of 18-54%.
Study connects bank default models using dynamic contagion.
problem Understanding default contagion in heterogeneous interbank systems.
method Proposes a dynamic default contagion model with endogenous early defaults for a finite set of banks, reformulating as a stochastic particle system.
result Existence of clearing systems and continuity of the system response for the mean-field problem.
We investigate an inhomogeneous Ising model in the context of tax evasion dynamics where different types of agents are parametrized via local temperatures and magnetic fields. In particular, we analyse the impact of backauditing and endogenously determined penalty rates on tax compliance. Both features contribute to a …
We study Exo-MDPs to reduce sample complexity in reinforcement learning.
problem Reducing sample complexity in reinforcement learning for structured MDPs.
method Introducing Exo-MDPs and proving structural equivalence to linear mixture MDPs, establishing regret bounds.
result Proved regret bound for Exo-MDPs, matching lower bounds.
Unified framework explains retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality.
problem Complexity of annuitization decisions due to longevity risk and labor force participation.
method Stochastic control and optimal stopping framework with habit formation and endogenous labor supply.
result Rich sequence of retirement dynamics, including defensive and aggressive labor supply phases.
New findings allow infinite mean intensity Hawkes processes to be stable.
problem Stability condition for Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
method Analysis of Quadratic Hawkes processes with infinite mean intensity.
result Quadratic Hawkes processes are always stationary with infinite mean intensity when total endogeneity ratio exceeds unity.
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and how prices move, the joint fluctuations of order flow and liquidity - and the way…
This paper models financial contagion with endogenously determined market liquidity.
problem Financial contagion and its impact on market liquidity during price drops.
method Developed a joint clearing system for interbank payments, asset prices, and market liquidity, with endogenous market capacity.
result Endogenous market liquidity significantly affects system risk during financial contagion.
While implicit feedback (e.g., clicks, dwell times, etc.) is an abundant and attractive source of data for learning to rank, it can produce unfair ranking policies for both exogenous and endogenous reasons. Exogenous reasons typically manifest themselves as biases in the training data, which then get reflected in the l…
In this article we consider the volatility inference in the presence of both market microstructure noise and endogenous time. Estimators of the integrated volatility in such a setting are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are studied. Our proposed estimator is compared with the existing popular volatility estim…
Stochastic Online Instrumental Variable Regression: Regrets for Endogeneity and Bandit Feedbackcs.LG
New method tackles endogeneity in online learning with improved regret bounds.
problem Endogeneity in real data due to omitted variables, strategic behaviors, etc.
method O2SLS (Online Two-Stage Least Squares) for Instrumental Variable (IV) regression.
result O2SLS achieves identification and oracle regret bounds for stochastic online learning.
We consider un-discounted reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov decision processes (MDPs) under temporal drifts, ie, both the reward and state transition distributions are allowed to evolve over time, as long as their respective total variations, quantified by suitable metrics, do not exceed certain variation budgets. …
Volatility fingerprints of large shocks: Endogeneous versus exogeneouscond-mat.stat-mech
Finance is about how the continuous stream of news gets incorporated into prices. But not all news have the same impact. Can one distinguish the effects of the Sept. 11, 2001 attack or of the coup against Gorbachev on Aug., 19, 1991 from financial crashes such as Oct. 1987 as well as smaller volatility bursts? Using a …
BAVART model combines VAR and BART for non-linear forecasting.
problem Overly restrictive linearity assumption in VAR models.
method Combining VAR with Bayesian additive regression trees (BART).
result BAVART model yields highly competitive forecasts.
The Minority Game framework was recently generalized to account for the possibility that agents adapt not only through strategy selection but also by diversifying their response according to the kind of dynamical regime, or the risk, they perceive. Here we study the effects of this mechanism in different information st…