A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Deep learning predicts employment changes and industry health.
Study examines the impact of employment benefit costs on firm profitability.
The paper predicts U.S. nonfarm employment using machine learning.
Study compares employers with and without anticipating strategic labor force responses.
We have modeled the employment/population ratio in the largest developed countries. Our results show that the evolution of the employment rate since 1970 can be predicted with a high accuracy by a linear dependence on the logarithm of real GDP per capita. All empirical relationships estimated in this study need a struc…
The paper analyzes how employers can efficiently screen candidates using multiple tests, considering both skill estimation and fairness.
Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). …
Study detects illegal discrimination by employers using correspondence experiments.
A framework predicts employment status for students considering unconscious biases.
The number of Italian firms in function of the number of workers is well approximated by an inverse power law up to 15 workers but shows a clear downward deflection beyond this point, both when using old pre-1999 data and when using recent (2014) data. This phenomenon could be associated with employent protection legis…
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
Interpretable neural networks improve economic research by balancing accuracy and transparency.
We provide an explicit aggregation in the neoclassical growth model with aggregate shocks and uninsurable employment risk. We show there are two restrictions on the unemployment shock for approximate aggregation to occur. First the probability of unemployment must be positive for each agent in each time period. That en…
Model shows partial compliance can lead to less fair outcomes than expected.
Using the formalism of Lyapunov potential function it is shown that the stability principles for biomass in the ecosystem and for employment in economics are mathematically similar. The ecosystem is found to have a stable and an unstable stationary state with high (forest) and low (grasslands) biomass, respectively. In…
We introduce a probabilistic model of labor markets for university graduates, in particular, in Japan. To make a model of the market efficiently, we take into account several hypotheses. Namely, each company fixes the (business year independent) number of opening positions for newcomers. The ability of gathering newcom…
Machine learning models outperform traditional actuarial methods in predicting health insurance costs.
Model estimates urban capabilities driving economic performance.
LHIEM model predicts health, income, and employment over years.
A folded type model is developed for analyzing compositional data. The proposed model involves an extension of the -transformation for compositional data and provides a new and flexible class of distributions for modeling data defined on the simplex sample space. Despite its rather seemingly complex structure, emplo…
Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this patient have lower blood sugar had she received a different medication?". We propose …
This paper introduces a novel framework for designing fair and sustainable unemployment benefits, grounded in cooperative game theory and real-time fiscal policy. The labor market is modeled as a coalitional game, where a random subset of participants is employed, generating stochastic economic output. To ensure fairne…
This paper presents an analysis of the study variables such as gdp, employment levels, the level of R & D and technology that will serve as the basis for stochastic modeling of production possibilities frontier in the goodness of fractal dimensions Ex Ante and Ex Post a priori to determine the levels of causality immed…
We address the issue of the distribution of firm size. To this end we propose a model of firms in a closed, conserved economy populated with zero-intelligence agents who continuously move from one firm to another. We then analyze the size distribution and related statistics obtained from the model. Our ultimate goal is…
Directly estimates CQC, improving interpretability and accuracy.
Among other macroeconomic indicators, the monthly release of U.S. unemployment rate figures in the Employment Situation report by the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics gets a lot of media attention and strongly affects the stock markets. I investigate whether a profitable investment strategy can be constructed by predic…
New method improves fairness in biased predictions.
Two environments are enough to infer causal graphs and counterfactuals.
A new score measures data reliability without ground truth.
Study evaluates training programs for unemployed in Belgium using machine learning.
This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model introduces opportunities to quantify the financial ows coming from future populatio…
Proposes a fix for IRS calculation of Obamacare tax credits.
We analyse four consecutive cycles observed in the USA for employment and inflation. They are driven by three oil price shocks and an intended interest rate shock. Non-linear coupling between the rate equations for consumer products as prey and consumers as predators provides the required instability, but its natural d…
Study high-frequency trading patterns in cryptocurrencies.
The paper offers algorithms for managing freelancers and in-house workers in online labor markets.
Predictive models are increasingly deployed for the purpose of determining access to services such as credit, insurance, and employment. Despite potential gains in productivity and efficiency, several potential problems have yet to be addressed, particularly the potential for unintentional discrimination. We present an…
We study a monetary version of the Keen model by merging two alternative extensions, namely the addition of a dynamic price level and the introduction of speculation. We recall and study old and new equilibria, together with their local stability analysis. This includes a state of recession associated with a deflationa…
Study examines market risks on pension system sustainability.
Novel framework analyzes economic shifts in data-poor economies.
The paper tackles long-term treatment effects with persistent confounders using sequential short-term outcomes.
India is ranked as the third most attractive nation for retail investment among emerging markets and many MNCs have been looking for the potential benefits to be taken from it. The development of organized retail has the potential of generating employment, improvement in technology, development of real estate etc. On t…
New method combines CATE and CQTE to estimate treatment effects across different quantiles.
The paper critiques UBI as ineffective for addressing technological unemployment.
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
Research finds investors may lose from more diverse workplaces.
This paper proposes RDS to improve model diversity in data sampling.
Hessian-free training has become a popular parallel second or- der optimization technique for Deep Neural Network training. This study aims at speeding up Hessian-free training, both by means of decreasing the amount of data used for training, as well as through reduction of the number of Krylov subspace solver iterati…
We uncover a new anomaly in asset pricing that is linked to the remuneration: the more a company spends on salaries and benefits per employee, the better its stock performs, on average. Moreover, the companies adopting similar remuneration policies share a common risk, which is comparable to that of the value premium. …