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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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110219329438 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for empirical science

Computer science scans LLMs to understand and manipulate their economic forecasts.

problem Understanding and controlling the reasoning of large language models in economics.
method Brain scanning techniques applied to LLMs to identify and manipulate underlying concepts.
result LLMs can be steered to generate forecasts with specific biases, allowing for correction or simulation.

Economies are complex man-made systems where organisms and markets interact according to motivations and principles not entirely understood yet. The increasing dissatisfaction with the postulates of traditional economics i.e. perfectly rational agents, interacting through efficient markets in the search of equilibrium,…

2012-05-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Economics does not need a scientific revolution. Economics needs accurate measurements according to high standards of natural sciences and meticulous work on revealing empirical relationships between measured variables.

2009-04-04abs ↗pdf ↗

This book presents a methodology and philosophy of empirical science based on large scale lossless data compression. In this view a theory is scientific if it can be used to build a data compression program, and it is valuable if it can compress a standard benchmark database to a small size, taking into account the len…

2011-04-28abs ↗pdf ↗

metabeta uses neural networks to speed up Bayesian mixed-effects regression.

problem Bayesian mixed-effects regression is computationally expensive.
method metabeta is a neural network model that pre-trains to estimate posterior distributions.
result metabeta achieves comparable performance to MCMC at a fraction of the time.

The paper proposes using network science to improve portfolio optimization by reducing noise in covariance estimation.

problem Noise in covariance estimation leads to suboptimal portfolio performance.
method The paper introduces SR-IFN, a network-based method to filter out noise from empirical covariance, enhancing portfolio optimization.
result The SR-IFN network improves portfolio performance by selecting peripheral, diversified assets and inversely weighting them based on centrality.

Why do nations produce scientific research? This is a fundamental problem in the field of social studies of science. The paper confronts this question here by showing vital determinants of science to explain the sources of social power and wealth creation by nations. Firstly, this study suggests a new general definitio…

2018-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the co-evolution of the countries in the inequality space, from a data science perspective…

2017-12-31abs ↗pdf ↗

New research shows graph embeddings fail to capture key network properties.

problem Graph embeddings fail to capture salient properties of complex networks.
method Mathematical proof and empirical study of various embedding techniques.
result Any successful graph embedding must have a rank nearly linear in the number of vertices.

Physicists use quantum models to describe the behavior of physical systems. Quantum models owe their success to their interpretability, to their relation to probabilistic models (quantization of classical models) and to their high predictive power. Beyond physics, these properties are valuable in general data science. …

2016-01-22abs ↗pdf ↗

BL learns interpretable optimization structures from data.

problem Learning interpretable optimization structures from data.
method BL parameterizes a compositional utility function from intrinsically interpretable modular blocks.
result BL supports architectures from single to hierarchical compositions, modeling hierarchical optimization structures.

Machine learning algorithms for prediction are increasingly being used in critical decisions affecting human lives. Various fairness formalizations, with no firm consensus yet, are employed to prevent such algorithms from systematically discriminating against people based on certain attributes protected by law. The aim…

2017-10-09abs ↗pdf ↗

New estimator improves statistical validity of synthetic data integration.

problem Combining synthetic data generated by large language models with real data for valid inference.
method Generalized method of moments estimator with theoretical guarantees.
result Improves estimates of target parameter through interactions between synthetic and real data.

Researchers analyze and compare nonparametric meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.

problem Evaluating treatment effectiveness in empirical science, especially when effects vary among individuals.
method Theoretical analysis of four meta-learning strategies, focusing on plug-in estimation and pseudo-outcome regression.
result Theoretical insights guide algorithm design and reveal relative strengths of different learners under various data-generating processes.

P.W. Anderson proposed the concept of complexity in order to describe the emergence and growth of macroscopic collective patterns out of the simple interactions of many microscopic agents. In the physical sciences this paradigm was implemented systematically and confirmed repeatedly by successful confrontation with rea…

2008-03-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Today, the prominence of data science within organizations has given rise to teams of data science workers collaborating on extracting insights from data, as opposed to individual data scientists working alone. However, we still lack a deep understanding of how data science workers collaborate in practice. In this work…

2020-01-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Foundation models alter medical data science workflow, challenging veridical data science principles.

problem Foundation models disrupt traditional data science practices in medicine.
method Critically examined the medical foundation model lifecycle and its deviation from veridical data science principles.
result Foundation models challenge veridical data science principles of predictability, computability, and stability.

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process, but in some cases it may not be possible to write down a likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which allow Bayesian inf…

2018-10-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Max-sliced Wasserstein metric reduces high-dimensional data to 1D for better estimation.

problem Curse of dimensionality in optimal transport.
method Introduces max-sliced Wasserstein metric to reduce high-dimensional problems to 1D.
result Uniform ratio bounds of empirical measures on RKHS concentrate uniformly fast at parametric rates.

Defines data science as a natural ecosystem with challenges and missions.

problem Challenges and missions in data science due to 5D complexities and data life cycle phases.
method Systemic and data-centric view of data science as a fusion of data universe and its challenges, formalizing a general-purpose architecture.
result Essential data science as a natural ecosystem integrating specific disciplines and high-impact applications.

A new method uses deep learning to evaluate causal theories without strict assumptions.

problem Evaluating causal theories represented as DAGs requires arbitrary assumptions that can bias results.
method Causal-graphical normalizing flows (cGNFs) use deep neural networks to empirically evaluate DAGs without functional form assumptions.
result cGNFs allow flexible, semi-parametric estimation of causal effects from DAGs.

Paper uses SGD for solving linear inverse problems, improving empirical performance.

problem Solving statistical inverse problems in science and engineering.
method Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) for linear inverse problems, with smoothing techniques.
result Consistency and finite sample bounds for excess risk demonstrated.

Donoho's JCGS (in press) paper is a spirited call to action for statisticians, who he points out are losing ground in the field of data science by refusing to accept that data science is its own domain. (Or, at least, a domain that is becoming distinctly defined.) He calls on writings by John Tukey, Bill Cleveland, and…

2017-10-24abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian machine scientist uncovers accurate models from data.

problem Challenging scientific problems require interpretable mathematical models.
method Bayesian approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo to explore model space.
result Out-of-sample predictions are more accurate than existing methods.

The goal of this article is to inspire data scientists to participate in the debate on the impact that their professional work has on society, and to become active in public debates on the digital world as data science professionals. How do ethical principles (e.g., fairness, justice, beneficence, and non-maleficence) …

2019-01-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops c-GNF for personalized social science policy analysis.

problem Challenges in estimating causal effects and counterfactual inference in social sciences.
method causal-Graphical Normalizing Flow (c-GNF) method.
result c-GNF performs well in estimating causal effects and counterfactual inference.

Complexity science offers new insights into macroeconomics and finance.

problem Insufficient understanding of economic and financial phenomena.
method Adopting complexity science to better understand complex systems.
result Complex system characteristics can benefit financial analysts, regulators, and policymakers.

Centroid-Encoder reduces high-dimensional data for better visualization.

problem Visualizing high-dimensional data efficiently and accurately.
method Centroid-Encoder integrates label information to keep similar objects close in reduced space.
result Centroid-Encoder outperforms other techniques in visualizing high-dimensional data.

Federated learning approach for binary matrix factorization.

problem Efficiently factorizing binary data distributed across stakeholders while maintaining privacy.
method Proximal optimization for federated learning of relaxed binary matrix factorization.
result Federated algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods in quality and efficacy.