A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Calibrating a trading rule using a historical simulation (also called backtest) contributes to backtest overfitting, which in turn leads to underperformance. In this paper we propose a procedure for determining the optimal trading rule (OTR) without running alternative model configurations through a backtest engine. We…
The paper argues that machine learning is a falsificationist process.
problem The role of falsification in machine learning is underexplored.
method The paper presents a falsificationist account of artificial neural networks, emphasizing empirical risk minimization and implicit regularization.
result Artificial neural networks can be seen as a falsificationist process, rejecting inadequate prediction rules.
Adversarial training is a technique for training robust machine learning models. To encourage robustness, it iteratively computes adversarial examples for the model, and then re-trains on these examples via some update rule. This work analyzes the performance of adversarial training on linearly separable data, and prov…
In this paper, we study the problem of learning probabilistic logical rules for inductive and interpretable link prediction. Despite the importance of inductive link prediction, most previous works focused on transductive link prediction and cannot manage previously unseen entities. Moreover, they are black-box models …
There has been significant recent work on the theory and application of randomized coordinate descent algorithms, beginning with the work of Nesterov [SIAM J. Optim., 22(2), 2012], who showed that a random-coordinate selection rule achieves the same convergence rate as the Gauss-Southwell selection rule. This result su…
We introduce a new weight-decay scaling rule to maintain sublayer gains across different widths in modern scale-invariant architectures.
problem In modern scale-invariant architectures, training quickly enters a steady state where normalization layers create backward scale sensitivity, degrading learning-rate transfer.
method We introduce a weight-decay scaling rule for AdamW that preserves sublayer gain across widths by equalizing the effective learning rate.
result Our empirical weight-decay scaling rule λ2∝d approximately keeps sublayer gains width invariant, enabling zero-shot transfer of learning rate and weight decay.
We present the design and implementation of a custom discrete optimization technique for building rule lists over a categorical feature space. Our algorithm produces rule lists with optimal training performance, according to the regularized empirical risk, with a certificate of optimality. By leveraging algorithmic bou…
The artificial neural network shows powerful ability of inference, but it is still criticized for lack of interpretability and prerequisite needs of big dataset. This paper proposes the Rule-embedded Neural Network (ReNN) to overcome the shortages. ReNN first makes local-based inferences to detect local patterns, and t…
We propose three new robust aggregation rules for distributed synchronous Stochastic Gradient Descent~(SGD) under a general Byzantine failure model. The attackers can arbitrarily manipulate the data transferred between the servers and the workers in the parameter server~(PS) architecture. We prove the Byzantine resilie…
We propose a novel robust aggregation rule for distributed synchronous Stochastic Gradient Descent~(SGD) under a general Byzantine failure model. The attackers can arbitrarily manipulate the data transferred between the servers and the workers in the parameter server~(PS) architecture. We prove the Byzantine resilience…
We prove the statistical consistency of kernel Partial Least Squares Regression applied to a bounded regression learning problem on a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Partial Least Squares stands out of well-known classical approaches as e.g. Ridge Regression or Principal Components Regression, as it is not defined as…
A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Probabilities are uniquely characterized by the mean of the canonical map to the RKHS. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed in terms of RKHS functio…
The problem of adaptive noisy clustering is investigated. Given a set of noisy observations Zi=Xi+εi, i=1,...,n, the goal is to design clusters associated with the law of Xi's, with unknown density f with respect to the Lebesgue measure. Since we observe a corrupted sample, a direct approach as the popular …
Interpretable classifiers have recently witnessed an increase in attention from the data mining community because they are inherently easier to understand and explain than their more complex counterparts. Examples of interpretable classification models include decision trees, rule sets, and rule lists. Learning such mo…
Time series forecasting models fail to consistently select the best model across different datasets.
problem Inconsistency in model selection for time series forecasting across varying data regimes.
method Characterized time series using descriptors like trend strength, seasonality, noise level, and temporal dependence. Developed a rule-based selection mechanism to map data regimes to candidate models.
result Rule-based model selection achieves low accuracy, with correct model identification occurring in only a small fraction of cases.
Recently, several authors have advocated the use of rule learning algorithms to model multi-label data, as rules are interpretable and can be comprehended, analyzed, or qualitatively evaluated by domain experts. Many rule learning algorithms employ a heuristic-guided search for rules that model regularities contained i…
Being able to model correlations between labels is considered crucial in multi-label classification. Rule-based models enable to expose such dependencies, e.g., implications, subsumptions, or exclusions, in an interpretable and human-comprehensible manner. Albeit the number of possible label combinations increases expo…
We empirically show the superiority of the equally weighted S\&P 500 portfolio over Sharpe's market capitalization weighted S\&P 500 portfolio. We proceed to consider the MaxMedian rule, a non-proprietary rule designed for the investor who wishes to do his/her own investing on a laptop with the purchase of only 20 stoc…
We propose an offline-online procedure for Fourier transform based option pricing. The method supports the acceleration of such essential tasks of mathematical finance as model calibration, real-time pricing, and, more generally, risk assessment and parameter risk estimation. We adapt the empirical magic point interpol…
We consider the setting of sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on specialized experts. We first provide a review of the relevant literature and present two theoretical contributions: a general analysis of the specialist aggregation rule of Freund et al. (1997) and an adaptation of fixed-share rules of He…