arXiv research

New method approximates high-dimensional probability densities efficiently.

A density ratio is defined by the ratio of two probability densities. We study the inference problem of density ratios and apply a semi-parametric density-ratio estimator to the two-sample homogeneity test. In the proposed test procedure, the f-divergence between two probability densities is estimated using a density-r…

A neural network method estimates densities from characteristic functions.

Associating distinct groups of objects (clusters) with contiguous regions of high probability density (high-density clusters), is central to many statistical and machine learning approaches to the classification of unlabelled data. We propose a novel hyperplane classifier for clustering and semi-supervised classificati…

Develops a new density ratio estimator for causal inference.

The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not yet been well-established for regression tasks. This paper considers the problem…

Neural-g models mixtures of densities with flexibility and accuracy.

We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic differential equations. In this contribution we address this problem by analyzing e…

Flow-based models use ODEs to generate complex data distributions.

Deep learning method infers causal interactions from data.

A new method for estimating density ratios in high dimensions.

The paper proposes a new method for density estimation using spline quasi-interpolation for clustering.

Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable $\mathbf{x}$ and a dependent variable $\mathbf{y}$ by modeling their conditional probability $p(\mathbf{y}|\mathbf{x})$. The paper develops best practices for conditional den…

This paper introduces a class of k-nearest neighbor ($k$-NN) estimators called bipartite plug-in (BPI) estimators for estimating integrals of non-linear functions of a probability density, such as Shannon entropy and Rényi entropy. The density is assumed to be smooth, have bounded support, and be uniformly bounded from…

Proposes a new method for high-dimensional density estimation.

Given $iid$ observations from an unknown absolute continuous distribution defined on some domain $Ω$, we propose a nonparametric method to learn a piecewise constant function to approximate the underlying probability density function. Our density estimate is a piecewise constant function defined on a binary partition o…

The study examines Fisher-Riemann geodesics for nonparametric probability densities.

A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.

SympFormer accelerates attention blocks using inertial dynamics on density spaces.

Discussing new econophysics methods for volatility and probability density estimation.

JEPAs learn data density by predicting perturbed samples, enabling density estimation.

We develop a scale-invariant truncated Lévy (STL) process to describe physical systems characterized by correlated stochastic variables. The STL process exhibits Lévy stability for the probability density, and hence shows scaling properties (as observed in empirical data); it has the advantage that all moments are fini…

Novel approach for estimating joint probability densities using tensor decompositions and dictionaries.

We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pd…

Proposes differentially private normalizing flows for privacy-preserving density estimation.

We present results about financial market observables, specifically returns and traded volumes. They are obtained within the current nonextensive statistical mechanical framework based on the entropy $S_{q}=k\frac{1-\sum\limits_{i=1}^{W} p_{i} ^{q}}{1-q} (q\in \Re)$ ($S_{1} \equiv S_{BG}=-k\sum\limits_{i=1}^{W}p_{i} \l…

New models capture heterogeneous network density, improving community detection.

Paper connects probability density cuts to graph theory eigenfunctions.

Recent works investigated the generalization properties in deep neural networks (DNNs) by studying the Information Bottleneck in DNNs. However, the mea- surement of the mutual information (MI) is often inaccurate due to the density estimation. To address this issue, we propose to measure the dependency instead of MI be…

The paper reviews historical and modern approaches to asset pricing probability measures.

We show a general relation between the spatially disjoint product of probability density functions and the sum of their Fisher information metric tensors. We then utilise this result to give a method for constructing the probability density functions for an arbitrary Riemannian Fisher information metric tensor. We note…

VI approximates complex densities faster than classical methods.

A number of fundamental quantities in statistical signal processing and information theory can be expressed as integral functions of two probability density functions. Such quantities are called density functionals as they map density functions onto the real line. For example, information divergence functions measure t…

Improved OOD detection using label smoothing and k-NN density estimates.

Sobolev quantities (norms, inner products, and distances) of probability density functions are important in the theory of nonparametric statistics, but have rarely been used in practice, partly due to a lack of practical estimators. They also include, as special cases, $L^2$ quantities which are used in many applicatio…

The probability density function for the visible sector of a Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine can be taken conditional on a subset of the visible units. We derive that the corresponding conditional density function is given by a reparameterization of the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine modelling the original probability…

We propose two novel samplers to generate high-quality samples from a given (un-normalized) probability density. Motivated by the success of generative adversarial networks, we construct our samplers using deep neural networks that transform a reference distribution to the target distribution. Training schemes are deve…

CNFs learn on manifolds using PPD, improving likelihood and sample quality.

DoSE improves OOD detection by estimating model probability density.

We present a novel synthesis of Fisher information and asset pricing theory that yields a practical method for reconstructing the probability density implicit in security prices. The Fisher information approach to these inverse problems transforms the search for a probability density into the solution of a differential…

While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate integration method for this problem. For rectangular integration regions, the approx…

Transformer with denoising diffusion improves probabilistic density estimation.

Probability density estimation is a classical and well studied problem, but standard density estimation methods have historically lacked the power to model complex and high-dimensional image distributions. More recent generative models leverage the power of neural networks to implicitly learn and represent probability …

We review the recently introduced concept of variety of a financial portfolio and we sketch its importance for risk control purposes. The empirical behaviour of variety, correlation, exceedance correlation and asymmetry of the probability density function of daily returns is discussed. The results obtained are compared…

Mean shift clustering finds the modes of the data probability density by identifying the zero points of the density gradient. Since it does not require to fix the number of clusters in advance, the mean shift has been a popular clustering algorithm in various application fields. A typical implementation of the mean shi…

Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.

Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.

Quantum probability theory reveals hidden structure in joint probability distributions.