Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …
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48 results for “empirical practices”
Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) is widely used in machine learning problems to efficiently perform empirical risk minimization, yet, in practice, SGD is known to stall before reaching the actual minimizer of the empirical risk. SGD stalling has often been attributed to its sensitivity to the conditioning of the probl…
The Normal Means problem plays a fundamental role in many areas of modern high-dimensional statistics, both in theory and practice. And the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach to solving this problem has been shown to be highly effective, again both in theory and practice. However, almost all EB treatments of the Normal Mean…
Aggregation defenses improve deep learning models' robustness against data poisoning attacks.
problem Data poisoning attacks manipulate deep learning models with malicious training samples.
method Deep Partition Aggregation, efficiency improvements, data-to-complexity ratio, poisoning overfitting phenomenon.
result Aggregation defenses boost poisoning robustness through the poisoning overfitting phenomenon.
Practical algorithm for contextual bandits with large action spaces.
problem Efficient algorithms for decision making in large, continuous action spaces.
method Uses computational oracles for supervised learning and optimization over the action space.
result Achieves sample complexity, runtime, and memory independent of the size of the action space.
On the Disconnect Between Theory and Practice of Neural Networks: Limits of the NTK Perspectivecs.LG
NTK theory fails to predict practical behavior of large-width neural networks.
problem Theoretical limits of NTK do not match practical neural network architectures.
method Empirical investigation of NTK's applicability to large-width architectures.
result Practically relevant behavior of large-width architectures differs from NTK theory.
Empirical study shows consistent meta-RL algorithms adapt to OOD tasks.
problem Theoretical consistency of meta-RL algorithms and its practical implications.
method Empirical investigation of representative meta-RL algorithms, focusing on consistency and adaptation to out-of-distribution tasks.
result Theoretical consistent algorithms can adapt to OOD tasks, while inconsistent ones cannot, but can still fail for poor exploration.
Develops methods to improve demand counterfactuals from imperfect proxies.
problem Imperfect proxies in demand models lead to biased counterfactuals and invalid inference.
method Practical toolkit for market-level and individual data, requiring minimal computation.
result Improves substitution prediction and counterfactual performance.
The Heston model is validated for option pricing using theoretical derivations and empirical market data.
problem Validating the Heston model for accurate option pricing.
method Theoretical derivations and empirical validations using Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning.
result The Heston model is robust and relevant for current financial markets.
We develop a family of accelerated stochastic algorithms that minimize sums of convex functions. Our algorithms improve upon the fastest running time for empirical risk minimization (ERM), and in particular linear least-squares regression, across a wide range of problem settings. To achieve this, we establish a framewo…
Feasible Invertibility Conditions for Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Observation-Driven Modelsq-fin.ST
Invertibility conditions for observation-driven time series models often fail to be guaranteed in empirical applications. As a result, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood and quasi-maximum likelihood estimators may be compromised. We derive considerably weaker conditions that can be used in practice to ensure t…
EQO uses a simple bonus term for efficient exploration in tabular RL.
problem Achieving minimax optimal reinforcement learning with practical efficiency.
method Exploration via Quasi-Optimism, employing a bonus proportional to state-action visit count.
result Achieves the sharpest known regret bound for tabular RL.
Empirical Gaussian Processes learn flexible priors from data.
problem Limited effectiveness of standard Gaussian process kernels.
method Estimate mean and covariance functions empirically from data.
result Empirical GPs converge to closest GP to real data generating process.
Weighted Empirical Risk Minimization: Sample Selection Bias Correction based on Importance Samplingstat.ML
Corrects sample selection bias in empirical risk minimization using importance sampling.
problem Statistical learning with biased training data.
method Weighted empirical risk minimization using importance sampling.
result Generalization capacity preserved with estimated importance weights.
A major challenge in contextual bandits is to design general-purpose algorithms that are both practically useful and theoretically well-founded. We present a new technique that has the empirical and computational advantages of realizability-based approaches combined with the flexibility of agnostic methods. Our algorit…
Certified training improves robustness against adversarial attacks.
problem Certified training's gap with empirical robustness limits its practical utility.
method Combining adversarial attacks with network over-approximations.
result Certified training can prevent catastrophic overfitting and bridge the gap to multi-step baselines.
Despite widespread interest and practical use, the theoretical properties of random forests are still not well understood. In this paper we contribute to this understanding in two ways. We present a new theoretically tractable variant of random regression forests and prove that our algorithm is consistent. We also prov…
DAL enhances black-box bandit algorithms for non-stationary environments.
problem Non-stationary environments in bandit problems.
method DAL combines any stationary bandit algorithm with a change detector.
result DAL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various non-stationary scenarios.
Natural gradient descent, which preconditions a gradient descent update with the Fisher information matrix of the underlying statistical model, is a way to capture partial second-order information. Several highly visible works have advocated an approximation known as the empirical Fisher, drawing connections between ap…
New method uses SURE to denoise signals, outperforming NPMLE.
problem Learning to optimally denoise signals corrupted by Gaussian noise.
method Hyvärinen's score matching (SM) is shown equivalent to SURE minimization.
result SURE achieves nearly parametric rates of convergence in empirical Bayes settings.
On Practical Reinforcement Learning: Provable Robustness, Scalability, and Statistical Efficiencycs.LG
This thesis improves practical reinforcement learning methods with robustness, scalability, and efficiency.
problem Improving reinforcement learning methods for practical applications.
method Analyzes and develops robust, scalable, and efficient reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Proves the efficiency and robustness of new RL methods.
Causal inference is central to many areas of artificial intelligence, including complex reasoning, planning, knowledge-base construction, robotics, explanation, and fairness. An active community of researchers develops and enhances algorithms that learn causal models from data, and this work has produced a series of im…
Paper analyzes high-dimensional portfolio risks and finds empirical out-of-sample relative loss is more reliable.
problem Analyzing risks in high-dimensional portfolios using empirical variance.
method Derives asymptotic behavior of out-of-sample variance and relative loss in high-dimensional settings.
result Empirical out-of-sample relative loss is more reliable than variance in high-dimensional portfolios.
The Signature Kernelmath.PR
Signature kernel handles sequential data with theoretical and practical advantages.
problem Handling sequential data efficiently and accurately.
method Positive definite kernel based on stochastic analysis with efficient computation.
result Strong empirical performance and theoretical guarantees.
Synthetic experiments are crucial for assessing causal machine learning methods.
problem Current empirical evaluations of causal machine learning methods are insufficient and unreliable.
method Propose principles for conducting rigorous empirical analyses with synthetic data.
result Rigorous synthetic experiments are essential for building trust in causal machine learning methods.
Paper presents ERM with -divergence regularization and its properties.
problem Minimizing empirical risk with -divergence constraints.
method Introduces normalization function and solves ERM-DR via ODE.
result Characterizes difference between empirical risks and provides numerical algorithm.
Introduces BPEL for EL, enhancing flexibility and using MCMC for inference.
problem Computational challenges in EL methods.
method Bayesian Penalized Empirical Likelihood (BPEL) framework with MCMC sampling.
result Enhanced flexibility and practicality of EL methods with MCMC.
CorrGAN: Sampling Realistic Financial Correlation Matrices Using Generative Adversarial Networksq-fin.ST
We propose a novel approach for sampling realistic financial correlation matrices. This approach is based on generative adversarial networks. Experiments demonstrate that generative adversarial networks are able to recover most of the known stylized facts about empirical correlation matrices estimated on asset returns.…
The data processing inequality doesn't always hold in practice, showing benefits in low-level tasks.
problem The data processing inequality suggests no benefit in pre-processing for classification.
method Theoretical and empirical study of binary classification setup with deep neural networks.
result Pre-classification processing can improve classification accuracy for any finite number of training samples.
Selecting an optimizer is a central step in the contemporary deep learning pipeline. In this paper, we demonstrate the sensitivity of optimizer comparisons to the hyperparameter tuning protocol. Our findings suggest that the hyperparameter search space may be the single most important factor explaining the rankings obt…
The interest rates (or nominal yields) can be negative, this is an unavoidable fact which has already been visible during the Great Depression (1929-39). Nowadays we can find negative rates easily by e.g. auditing. Several theoretical and practical ideas how to model and eventually overcome empirical negative rates can…
The paper provides theoretical guarantees for neural network-based anomaly detection.
problem Theoretical guarantees for unsupervised neural network-based anomaly detection.
method Casting anomaly detection as a binary classification problem, establishing non-asymptotic upper bounds and convergence rates.
result The convergence rate on the excess risk matches the minimax optimal rate.
Empirical median performs well in estimating location with varying scales.
problem Estimating location with varying scales in data.
method Analysis of empirical median as an estimator.
result Matching upper and lower bounds on estimation error.
New method tackles MDPs by learning normalized representations efficiently.
problem Curse of dimensionality in MDPs.
method Contrastive representation learning for linear MDPs.
result First practical method with strong theoretical guarantees and empirical performance.
An important class of distance metrics proposed for training generative adversarial networks (GANs) is the integral probability metric (IPM), in which the neural net distance captures the practical GAN training via two neural networks. This paper investigates the minimax estimation problem of the neural net distance ba…
New algorithm closes empirical gap in PFSGD performance.
problem Empirical performance gap between tuned SGD and PFSGD.
method Parameter-free algorithm based on Coin-Betting ODE updates.
result New algorithm outperforms tuned baselines and matches optimal performance.
We study PCA as a stochastic optimization problem and propose a novel stochastic approximation algorithm which we refer to as "Matrix Stochastic Gradient" (MSG), as well as a practical variant, Capped MSG. We study the method both theoretically and empirically.
Estimating properties of discrete distributions is a fundamental problem in statistical learning. We design the first unified, linear-time, competitive, property estimator that for a wide class of properties and for all underlying distributions uses just samples to achieve the performance attained by the empirical…
Penalized likelihood approaches are widely used for high-dimensional regression. Although many methods have been proposed and the associated theory is now well-developed, the relative efficacy of different approaches in finite-sample settings, as encountered in practice, remains incompletely understood. There is theref…
Recently, over-parameterized neural networks have been extensively analyzed in the literature. However, the previous studies cannot satisfactorily explain why fully trained neural networks are successful in practice. In this paper, we present a new theoretical framework for analyzing over-parameterized neural networks …
Paper establishes no-regret property for practical EGO optimization.
problem No theoretical bounds on cumulative regret for practical EGO.
method Introduced practical EGO with a positive nugget, analyzed its regret bounds.
result Practical EGO is a no-regret algorithm with sublinear regret bounds.
The Relationship Between Stock Market Parameters and Interbank Lending Market: an Empirical Evidenceq-fin.ST
The article presents calculations that prove practical importance of the earlier derived theoretical relationship between the interest rate on the interbank credit market, volume of investment and the quantity of securities tradable on the stock exchange.
New adaptive first-order methods improve on quasi-Newton variants.
problem Designing efficient gradient methods for practical applications.
method Online scaled gradient methods (OSGM) with new adaptive methods OSGM-Best.
result OSGM-Best matches quasi-Newton variants but requires less memory and cheaper iterations.
New method combines Bloom filters and belief propagation for efficient group testing.
problem Optimizing group testing for COVID-19 samples under practical constraints.
method Combining Bloom filters with belief propagation for scalability and accuracy.
result Strong empirical performance without mixing more than a chosen number of patients.
BLAE solves batched linear bandits with optimal regret and practical performance.
problem Batched linear bandit problem with limited adaptivity.
method Integrates arm elimination with regularized G-optimal design, achieving minimax optimal regret.
result Achieves minimax optimal regret in both large- and small- regimes with batches.
New empirical PAC-Bayes bound for Markov chains with finite state space.
problem Lack of empirical bounds for Markov chains with temporal dependence.
method Proved a new PAC-Bayes bound for Markov chains, providing an empirical pseudo-spectral gap.
result First fully empirical PAC-Bayes bound for Markov chains with finite state space.
Given a set of empirical observations, conditional density estimation aims to capture the statistical relationship between a conditional variable and a dependent variable by modeling their conditional probability . The paper develops best practices for conditional den…
We aim to analyze the relation between two random vectors that may potentially have both different number of attributes as well as realizations, and which may even not have a joint distribution. This problem arises in many practical domains, including biology and architecture. Existing techniques assume the vectors to …