Addressing the ongoing examination of high-frequency trading practices in financial markets, we report the results of an extensive empirical study estimating the maximum possible profitability of the most aggressive such practices, and arrive at figures that are surprisingly modest. By "aggressive" we mean any trading …
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48 results for “empirical frequency”
The paper explains how neural networks learn less salient frequency components during training.
problem Understanding the grokking phenomenon in neural networks.
method Empirical frequency analysis of training data.
result Neural networks initially learn less salient frequency components of the test data.
Develops new algorithms for QRF to handle mixed-frequency and longitudinal data.
problem Handling mixed-frequency and longitudinal data in quantile regression.
method Mixed-Frequency Quantile Regression Forest (MIDAS-QRF) and Finite Mixture Quantile Regression Forest (FM-QRF).
result Valid and flexible models for complex empirical settings in financial risk management and climate-change impact evaluation.
Zipfian Whiteningcs.CL
PCA whitening weighted by Zipfian word frequencies improves task performance.
problem Skewed word embedding spaces in neural models.
method PCA whitening weighted by empirical word frequencies following Zipf's law.
result Significantly improves task performance, surpassing baselines.
Deeper neural networks learn lower frequency functions faster, according to a new principle.
problem Understanding why deeper learning is faster.
method Fourier analysis and filtering method to separate and analyze the frequency distribution of neural network outputs.
result Deeper hidden layers in neural networks bias towards lower frequency functions during training.
We conduct an extensive evaluation of price jump tests based on high-frequency financial data. After providing a concise review of multiple alternative tests, we document the size and power of all tests in a range of empirically relevant scenarios. Particular focus is given to the robustness of test performance to the …
Anomalous waiting times in high-frequency financial dataphysics.soc-ph
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
Anomalous waiting times in high-frequency financial datacond-mat.stat-mech
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
Frequency bias affects neural network training on non-uniform data.
problem Understanding how frequency bias impacts neural networks trained on non-uniformly distributed data.
method Used the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) model to explore the effect of variable density on training dynamics.
result Convergence time for learning a pure harmonic function depends on the local density at a point.
A detailed analysis of correlation between stock returns at high frequency is compared with simple models of random walks. We focus in particular on the dependence of correlations on time scales - the so-called Epps effect. This provides a characterization of stochastic models of stock price returns which is appropriat…
Study uses multi-kernel Hawkes models to analyze high-frequency price dynamics.
problem Understanding responsive speeds of market participants in high-frequency trading.
method Multi-kernel Hawkes models with conditional Hessian analysis for optimization.
result Existence of multi-kernels (UHF, VHF, HF) in high-frequency price dynamics.
New estimators amplify data, achieving plug-in accuracy with fewer samples.
problem Efficiently estimating distribution properties with minimal data.
method Linear-time computable estimators that amplify data.
result Achieve plug-in accuracy with samples, compared to for empirical estimators.
CNNs show sensitivity to low-frequency signals due to image frequency distribution.
problem Understanding why CNNs are sensitive to low-frequency signals.
method Theoretical analysis of CNN representations in frequency space.
result CNNs sensitivity to low-frequency signals is due to the frequency distribution of natural images.
Paper forecasts financial trading durations using a new point process model.
problem Forecasting limit order book durations in high-frequency financial data.
method Self-exciting flexible residual point process incorporating empirical distributional features.
result The model achieves strong predictive performance compared to alternative approaches.
A new search-control strategy improves Dyna's efficiency.
problem Improving sample efficiency in model-based reinforcement learning.
method Proposes a novel search-control strategy by sampling high frequency regions of the value function.
result Empirically shows that high frequency regions require more samples to approximate, suggesting a better search-control strategy.
LSTM models improve macroeconomic forecasting with mixed frequency data.
problem Improving accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts using mixed frequency data.
method Adapted LSTM model to mixed frequency data, using U-MIDAS scheme.
result Proposed LSTM models outperform conventional MIDAS models in out-of-sample predictive performance.
DeepVol uses high-frequency data to forecast volatility, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Improving volatility forecasting using high-frequency data.
method Dilated Causal Convolutions applied to high-frequency financial time-series.
result DeepVol outperforms traditional methods in forecasting day-ahead volatility.
Study shows neural networks learn low frequencies first, proposing solutions.
problem Frequency bias in neural network learning process.
method Developed a PDE to unravel frequency dynamics, used Fourier Features model.
result Appropriate weight initialization can eliminate or control frequency bias.
Lazy, perfectly informed investors trade infrequently due to costs.
problem The paradox of an omniscient yet lazy investor trading infrequently.
method Formalized the paradox using geometric and fractional Brownian motion models, derived closed-form profit functions, and proved existence and uniqueness of the optimal trading frequency.
result The optimal trading frequency can be interpreted through the fractal dimension of the price path.
SSMs have a built-in bias towards low-frequency components, which can be adjusted.
problem Frequency bias in SSMs affects their performance on long-range sequences.
method Proposed two mechanisms to tune frequency bias: scaling initialization or applying a Sobolev-norm-based filter.
result Tuning frequency bias improves SSMs' performance on long-range sequence learning tasks.
We theoretically and empirically study portfolio optimization under transaction costs and establish a link between turnover penalization and covariance shrinkage with the penalization governed by transaction costs. We show how the ex ante incorporation of transaction costs shifts optimal portfolios towards regularized …
Paper uses machine learning for nowcasting corporate earnings from mixed-frequency data.
problem Predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with different frequency data.
method Structured machine learning regressions with sparse-group LASSO regularization for panel data.
result Machine learning models outperform traditional methods in nowcasting corporate earnings.
We propose a new framework for measuring connectedness among financial variables that arises due to heterogeneous frequency responses to shocks. To estimate connectedness in short-, medium-, and long-term financial cycles, we introduce a framework based on the spectral representation of variance decompositions. In an e…
New Fourier-based diffusion model improves high-frequency generation quality.
problem Diffusion models struggle with high-frequency details.
method Analyzed and modified the forward process in Fourier space to equalize noise corruption across frequencies.
result Improved generation quality for high-frequency components.
Study shows how neural network learning rates vary with function frequency.
problem Understanding how neural networks learn functions of different frequencies.
method Approximated neural network dynamics with a linear system, analyzed eigenfunctions and eigenvalues.
result A shallow neural network without bias cannot learn low frequency functions with odd frequencies.
Study uses Hawkes and diffusion models to analyze stock price dynamics.
problem Analyzing volatility and price dynamics in ultra-high-frequency stock data.
method Combined symmetric Hawkes and diffusion models with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Model provides accurate volatility estimation and dynamics of parameters.
Low frequency perturbations improve model robustness, contrary to high frequency attacks.
problem Improving model robustness against adversarial attacks.
method Systematic control of frequency components in perturbations.
result Low frequency perturbations improve model robustness, especially in white-box and black-box settings.
Enhances uncertainty estimation in medical image segmentation.
problem Frequency-related noise in medical imaging leads to biased uncertainty estimates.
method Extends MC-Dropout to the frequency domain for better uncertainty estimation.
result MC-Frequency Dropout improves calibration and uncertainty in semantic segmentation.
RNNs solve modular addition tasks using low rank and sparse Fourier structures.
problem Solving modular addition tasks with recurrent neural networks.
method Identified low rank structures and sparse Fourier representations in RNN weights.
result RNNs robust to removing individual frequencies but degrade with more ablation.
Empirical analysis in limit order book modeling for Nikkei 225 Stocks with Cox-type intensitiesq-fin.TR
Study improves Cox model for predicting stock trading signs using Japanese market data.
problem Improving Cox model for predicting stock trading signs using Japanese market data.
method Added new covariates and used high-frequency trading data for 222 Nikkei 225 stocks.
result Cox-type model performs well in Japanese market and identifies key factors for accurate estimation.
Model predicts bid and ask price dynamics with spread-dependent intensities.
problem Predicting bid and ask price dynamics in high-frequency stock markets.
method Extended Hawkes process with zero intensities, spread-dependent intensities, and negative excitement.
result Spread-narrowing tendency, excitations caused by previous events, impact of flash crashes, and different market participant features.
High-frequency trading models fail due to overfitting and survivor bias.
problem Failure of hybrid DRL-EC trading systems in high-frequency environments.
method Deployed a population of 500 agents in a high-frequency cryptocurrency environment, analyzing failure modes through multi-disciplinary lens.
result Increasing model complexity without information asymmetry exacerbates systemic fragility.
Deep learning models, especially CNNs, can predict radio frequency power faster than traditional methods.
problem Accurate radio frequency power prediction for optimal transmitter location.
method Empirical analysis of deep learning models including CNNs and UNET variations for power prediction.
result Deep learning models, particularly CNNs, are effective and generalize well to new regions for power prediction.
We present a novel approach to describing the microstructure of high frequency trading using two key elements. First we introduce a new notion of informed trader which we starkly contrast to current informed trader models. We describe the exact nature of the `superior information' high frequency traders have access to,…
An Empirical Analysis of the Advantages of Finite- v.s. Infinite-Width Bayesian Neural Networksstat.ML
Empirical study compares finite- and infinite-width BNNs, revealing performance differences under model mismatch.
problem Comparing BNNs with different widths due to conflicting model properties and inference intractability.
method Empirical comparison of finite- and infinite-width BNNs, analyzing performance under model mismatch.
result Increasing width can hurt BNN performance when the model is mis-specified, and finite-width BNNs generalize better under model mismatch.
Model quantifies market sentiment using news data.
problem Quantifying high-frequency market sentiment for economists.
method Support vector machine classifiers for sentiment analysis; stochastic volatility model for joint evolution.
result News sentiment raises the threshold of volatility reversion.
New method estimates VaR and ES using high-frequency data, outperforming existing approaches.
problem Limitations of existing VaR and ES estimation methods in high-frequency data.
method Transforms intra-day returns using subordinator process, filters autocorrelation, fits fat-tailed distribution.
result Outperforms existing methods in VaR and ES estimation and forecasting.
New model reduces volatility parameters and complexity.
problem Accurately modeling multivariate volatility with network structure.
method Introduces a new multivariate volatility model using both low and high-frequency data.
result The model significantly reduces parameter count and computational complexity.
Study non-parametric frequency-domain system identification from finite samples.
problem Frequency-domain system identification from limited data.
method Empirical Transfer Function Estimate (ETFE) under sub-Gaussian colored noise and stability assumptions.
result ETFE estimates are concentrated around true values with a finite-sample rate of for all frequencies in the norm.
The paper introduces a new volatility model for state heterogeneous financial markets using high-frequency data.
problem State heterogeneity in financial volatility processes.
method Developed a state heterogeneous GARCH-Ito (SG-Ito) model based on continuous Ito diffusion process.
result Empirical studies reveal various state heterogeneities in S&P 500 index volatility.
Study reveals how neural network biases align with adversarial attack frequencies.
problem Correlation between neural network biases and adversarial attacks.
method Fourier transform analysis of network implicit bias and adversarial perturbations.
result Network bias and adversarial attack frequencies are highly correlated.
Why deep neural networks (DNNs) capable of overfitting often generalize well in practice is a mystery [#zhang2016understanding]. To find a potential mechanism, we focus on the study of implicit biases underlying the training process of DNNs. In this work, for both real and synthetic datasets, we empirically find that a…
In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility…
Study cryptocurrency price dynamics using adaptive EMD and spectral analysis.
problem Analyze the time-varying volatility of cryptocurrency prices.
method Adaptive complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ACE-EMD) and Hilbert spectral analysis.
result Reveal the properties of various timescales in cryptocurrency price dynamics.
Sparse graph learning for dependent time series using ADMM.
problem Inferring conditional independence graph of sparse, high-dimensional stationary multivariate Gaussian time series.
method Sparse-group lasso-based frequency-domain formulation and alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) optimization.
result Convergence of inverse PSD estimators to true value under certain conditions.
A new method to estimate local volatility from high-frequency data.
problem Quantitative trading risk management needs a better way to estimate volatility.
method Realized local volatility surface estimated via high-frequency data and Bayesian nonparametric estimation.
result The method can capture counterfactual volatility and improve risk management.
Study predicts price predictability in ultra-high frequency financial data using entropy tests.
problem Tackles predictability of ultra-high frequency financial data.
method Develops statistical tests based on Shannon entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence to analyze predictability.
result Degree of randomness increases with aggregation level in transaction time.
Two econometric models forecast security volatility using various data sources.
problem Forecasting security volatility using low, high, and option data.
method Proposes two GARCH models integrating low, high, and option data.
result GARCH-Itô-OI and GARCH-Itô-IV models outperform other models in 5-minute high-frequency data.