Previous literature has identified an effect, dubbed the Zumbach effect, that is nonzero empirically but conjectured to be zero in any conventional stochastic volatility model. Essentially this effect corresponds to the property that past squared returns forecast future volatilities better than past volatilities foreca…
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48 results for “empirical effectiveness”
Study shows effectiveness of offline RL in online RL tasks.
problem Improving online RL efficiency using offline RL data.
method Formalized framework for incorporating offline RL as online RL subroutines, introducing techniques to enhance effectiveness.
result Effectiveness of the framework depends on task nature, techniques greatly enhance effectiveness, and existing methods are ineffective.
Investigates model selection challenges in heterogeneous treatment effect estimation.
problem Lack of validation metrics for choosing the best model in treatment effect estimation.
method Empirical investigation of different model selection criteria.
result Complex interplay between selection strategies, estimators, and data.
New method balances covariates for stable causal survival effect estimation.
problem Estimating causal survival effects in data with conditionally-independent censoring.
method Covariate-balancing approach to empirically stable and asymptotically efficient estimation.
result Validated theoretical results in synthetic and semi-synthetic data.
Optimal Post-Hoc Theorizingecon.EM
The optimal approach is to theorize after examining data, not before.
problem Optimal sequencing of theory and empirical analysis for economic questions.
method Formalized a Bayesian model to trade off Darwinian and Statistical Learning.
result Post hoc theorizing is typically optimal in modern economics.
Study evaluates and compares traditional and causal machine learning methods for estimating direct price effects of environmental amenities.
problem Estimating direct price effects of environmental amenities in housing markets.
method Empirical Monte Carlo simulation to compare traditional regression and causal machine learning approaches.
result Causal Machine Learning (CML) methods, particularly causal forest DID, perform comparably to generalized DID in most scenarios.
Analyzes empirical risk minimization in finance, showing effectiveness and generalization issues.
problem Analyzing empirical risk minimization in finance for optimal hedging and investment decisions.
method Classical statistical machine learning techniques and non-asymptotic estimates based on Rademacher complexity.
result Over-training leads to anticipative decisions, but non-asymptotic estimates show convergence for large training sets.
Different technological domains have significantly different rates of performance improvement. Prior theory indicates that such differing rates should influence the relative speed of diffusion of the products embodying the different technologies since improvement in performance during the diffusion process increases th…
metabeta uses neural networks to speed up Bayesian mixed-effects regression.
problem Bayesian mixed-effects regression is computationally expensive.
method metabeta is a neural network model that pre-trains to estimate posterior distributions.
result metabeta achieves comparable performance to MCMC at a fraction of the time.
We theoretically and empirically study portfolio optimization under transaction costs and establish a link between turnover penalization and covariance shrinkage with the penalization governed by transaction costs. We show how the ex ante incorporation of transaction costs shifts optimal portfolios towards regularized …
Study reveals holiday effect on China's time-honored brands, especially alcoholic beverages.
problem Understanding holiday impact on China's time-honored brands.
method Event study using listed companies of China's time-honored brands from 2012-2021.
result Time-honored brand stocks show significant post-holiday effect during Chinese New Year, alcoholic beverages more sensitive.
Identification and Bounding of Central Moments of Causal Effects Using Marginal Moments Informationstat.ME
This paper identifies and bounds ICE central moments using PO marginal central moments.
problem Identifying and characterizing treatment effect heterogeneity.
method Using only marginal central moments of potential outcomes, the paper identifies and bounds central moments of individual causal effects.
result Identification and bounding of central moments of ICE using marginal moments of POs.
The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between the return of an asset and the changes in its volatility. There is broad agreement in the literature that the effect should be present for theoretical reasons, and it has been consistently found in empirical work. However, a few papers have pointe…
Graph Neural Networks for Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility with Spillover Effectsq-fin.ST
Graph neural networks improve volatility forecasting by capturing spillover effects.
problem Forecasting multivariate realized volatility with spillover effects.
method Customized graph neural networks incorporating spillover effects from multi-hop neighbors.
result Modeling nonlinear spillover effects enhances forecasting accuracy, especially for short-term horizons.
This note is concerned with an accurate and computationally efficient variational bayesian treatment of mixed-effects modelling. We focus on group studies, i.e. empirical studies that report multiple measurements acquired in multiple subjects. When approached from a bayesian perspective, such mixed-effects models typic…
Paper improves learning efficiency by focusing on effective dimensionality.
problem Dimensionality bottleneck in modern learning tasks.
method Developed tools to reduce dimensional costs using effective dimensionality.
result Uniform concentration bounds involving effective dimensionality, improving over existing results.
Proposes meTS for efficient exploration in correlated bandits.
problem Efficiently explore in bandits with correlated actions.
method Mixed-effect model with Thompson Sampling.
result Bound on Bayes regret with two terms.
A Refined Analysis of UCBVIstat.ML
Improved analysis of UCBVI algorithm with better empirical performance.
problem Improving the UCBVI algorithm's performance and understanding its bounds.
method Refined analysis of UCBVI algorithm with improved bonus terms and regret analysis.
result Improving multiplicative constants in UCBVI bounds enhances empirical performance.
DEBIAS learns causal effects from psychiatric longitudinal data by optimizing outcome weights.
problem Causal inference challenges in psychiatric longitudinal data due to symptom heterogeneity and latent confounding.
method DEBIAS algorithm that optimizes outcome weights to maximize durable treatment effects and minimize confounding.
result DEBIAS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in recovering causal effects for clinically interpretable composite outcomes.
Mixup improves model accuracy and calibration through data transformation and random perturbation.
problem Improving model accuracy and calibration in machine learning.
method Interprets Mixup as empirical risk minimization with data transformation and random perturbation.
result Mixup induces multiple known regularization schemes that prevent overfitting and overconfident predictions.
Study examines how COVID-19 intensified demand variability in U.S. supply chains.
problem The amplification of demand variability (Bullwhip Effect) in supply chains during the pandemic.
method Extensive industry-level data analysis using traditional and advanced empirical techniques.
result COVID-19 significantly amplified the Bullwhip Effect across different U.S. industries.
Machine learning systems increasingly depend on pipelines of multiple algorithms to provide high quality and well structured predictions. This paper argues interaction effects between clustering and prediction (e.g. classification, regression) algorithms can cause subtle adverse behaviors during cross-validation that m…
Ultrafast Extreme Events: Empirical Analysis of Mechanisms and Recovery in a Historical Perspectiveq-fin.TR
Empirical study on UEEs reveals liquidity's role and universal recovery patterns.
problem Understanding and stabilizing financial markets affected by UEEs.
method Comparative analysis of UEEs over different years in US stock market.
result Liquidity is dominant in UEEs emergence and recovery patterns are universal.
Proposes an efficient algorithm for mHealth that makes real-time physical activity suggestions.
problem Training complex models efficiently in real-time mHealth applications.
method Streamlined empirical Bayes procedure for fitting linear mixed effects models.
result Improves accuracy and speed over state-of-the-art approaches in mHealth applications.
Gradient descent with large momentum finds flatter minima.
problem Understanding the effects of momentum in gradient descent.
method Empirical and theoretical analysis of gradient descent with large momentum.
result Large momentum leads to flatter minima than gradient descent.
A New Traders' Game? -- Empirical Analysis of Response Functions in a Historical Perspectiveq-fin.TR
Study analyzes non-Markovian effects in financial markets over multiple years.
problem Understanding non-Markovian dynamics and trader interactions in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of self-response functions and trade sign correlators for different stocks over multiple years.
result Significant variations in traders' interactions over time, indicating changes in market mechanisms.
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price,…
We study the risk performance of distributed learning for the regularization empirical risk minimization with fast convergence rate, substantially improving the error analysis of the existing divide-and-conquer based distributed learning. An interesting theoretical finding is that the larger the diversity of each local…
Large-scale kernel approximation is an important problem in machine learning research. Approaches using random Fourier features have become increasingly popular [Rahimi and Recht, 2007], where kernel approximation is treated as empirical mean estimation via Monte Carlo (MC) or Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) integration [Yang …
Empirical risk minimization is the main tool for prediction problems, but its extension to relational data remains unsolved. We solve this problem using recent ideas from graph sampling theory to (i) define an empirical risk for relational data and (ii) obtain stochastic gradients for this empirical risk that are autom…
Natural gradient descent, which preconditions a gradient descent update with the Fisher information matrix of the underlying statistical model, is a way to capture partial second-order information. Several highly visible works have advocated an approximation known as the empirical Fisher, drawing connections between ap…
The polypharmacy side effect prediction problem considers cases in which two drugs taken individually do not result in a particular side effect; however, when the two drugs are taken in combination, the side effect manifests. In this work, we demonstrate that multi-relational knowledge graph completion achieves state-o…
Paper proposes adaptive parameter selection for KGD algorithms.
problem Improving parameter selection for kernel-based gradient descent.
method Integrates bias-variance analysis with splitting method, introduces empirical effective dimension.
result Adaptive parameter selection strategy achieves optimal generalization error bound.
Generative models improve causal effect estimation from observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data, especially when confounding factors are present.
method Proposes a progressive sequence of Variational Auto-Encoder models to learn underlying factors and causal effects.
result Empirical results show superior performance compared to state-of-the-art approaches.
Empirical study shows removing neural parameter symmetries impacts model performance.
problem Understanding the impact of neural parameter symmetries on model performance.
method Developed two methods to reduce parameter space symmetries in neural networks.
result Removing parameter symmetries can lead to faster and more effective Bayesian neural network training.
Nonparametric Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects: From Theory to Learning Algorithmsstat.ML
Researchers analyze and compare nonparametric meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
problem Evaluating treatment effectiveness in empirical science, especially when effects vary among individuals.
method Theoretical analysis of four meta-learning strategies, focusing on plug-in estimation and pseudo-outcome regression.
result Theoretical insights guide algorithm design and reveal relative strengths of different learners under various data-generating processes.
The paper reviews methods for estimating individual treatment effects using non-parametric regression models.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in observational data.
method Non-parametric regression models to estimate individual treatment effects.
result A review and development of existing state-of-the-art frameworks for individual treatment effects estimation.
Study finds short-term wage increases due to COVID-19, contrary to expectations.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on wages over time.
method Empirical analysis controlling for GDP as a demand proxy.
result Short-term positive wage effect, contrary to expectations.
We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous variance curves implied by the market and study their daily variations jointly with sp…
Empirical Bayes Rebiasingstat.ME
We rebias estimates to improve interval calibration and prediction accuracy.
problem Constructing accurate intervals for noisy and biased estimates.
method Empirical Bayes rebiasing strategy that learns bias distribution from data.
result Substantial precision gains in prediction-powered inference.
It has been shown that injecting noise into the neural network weights during the training process leads to a better generalization of the resulting model. Noise injection in the distributed setup is a straightforward technique and it represents a promising approach to improve the locally trained models. We investigate…
New hierarchical model improves on standard practice for high-dimensional data.
problem Poor statistical performance in high-dimensional hierarchical models.
method Model effects as exchangeable across covariates and correlated across datasets.
result Empirical Bayes estimator outperforms classic approach in high-dimensional settings.
Enhances binomial model with machine learning for microstructure effects.
problem Traditional binomial models ignore market microstructure effects like bid-ask spreads.
method Augments binomial tree with Random Forest classifiers trained on market data.
result Achieves 88.25% AUC in forecasting price movements using real-world data.
Paper proposes unbiased learning for recommendation causal effects.
problem Estimating the causal effect of recommendation when the ground truth is unobservable.
method Inverse propensity scoring technique to construct unbiased estimators, followed by empirical risk minimization with propensity capping.
result The proposed method outperforms other biased learning methods in various settings.
Entropy asymmetry affects regularization in ERM, leading to biased solutions.
problem Analyzing the impact of relative entropy asymmetry in ERM regularization.
method Examined Type-I and Type-II ERM-RER, comparing their solutions and properties.
result Type-II ERM-RER regularization introduces a strong bias against training data.
Intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued Markov chain Monte Carlo via kernel discrepancystat.ML
A new method calculates intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued data.
problem Challenges in choosing effective sample size for manifold-valued data.
method Proposes an intrinsic effective sample size based on kernel discrepancy.
result Establishes an exact finite-sample risk interpretation and consistency of the estimator.
Online TERM improves robustness and fairness in streaming data.
problem Streaming data's lack of worst-case fairness and robustness in ERM.
method Proposes an online TERM formulation to balance average-case accuracy with worst-case fairness and robustness.
result Negative tilting effectively suppresses outlier influence, positive tilting improves recall with minimal precision loss.
QC-ST and CoCo methods correct batch effects in metabolomics data.
problem Batch effects in metabolomics data obscure biological variations.
method QC-ST for simultaneous detection of QC samples' mean vectors and covariance matrices, CoCo for covariance correction.
result QC-ST and CoCo improve batch effect correction in metabolomics datasets.