Oil is perceived as a good diversification tool for stock markets. To fully understand this potential, we propose a new empirical methodology that combines generalized autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency data and allows us to capture and forecast the conditional time-varying joint distribution of …
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A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “empirical benefits”
One of the findings of the recent literature is that the 2008 financial crisis caused reduction in international diversification benefits. To fully understand the possible potential from diversification, we build an empirical model which combines generalised autoregressive score copula functions with high frequency dat…
One of the most surprising and exciting discoveries in supervised learning was the benefit of overparameterization (i.e. training a very large model) to improving the optimization landscape of a problem, with minimal effect on statistical performance (i.e. generalization). In contrast, unsupervised settings have been u…
The quality of an induced model by a learning algorithm is dependent on the quality of the training data and the hyper-parameters supplied to the learning algorithm. Prior work has shown that improving the quality of the training data (i.e., by removing low quality instances) or tuning the learning algorithm hyper-para…
Bayesian neural networks can be partially stochastic without losing predictive power.
problem The necessity of fully stochastic parameters in Bayesian neural networks.
method Theoretical and empirical investigation of partially stochastic networks compared to fully stochastic ones.
result Expressive predictive distributions require only small amounts of stochasticity, and partially stochastic networks can match or outperform fully stochastic networks.
Batch normalization makes deep residual networks train faster.
problem Training deep residual networks with large depths.
method Downscaling the residual branch by a normalizing factor early in training.
result Normalized residual blocks compute functions close to the identity function early in training.
The paper studies the benefits of curriculum learning in linear regression tasks.
problem Theoretical understanding of curriculum learning's benefits in machine learning.
method Theoretical analysis of curriculum learning in structured and unstructured multitask linear regression problems.
result Adaptive learning in the unstructured setting is fundamentally harder than oracle learning, but not in the structured setting.
This work analyzes benefits and limitations of data augmentation and feature averaging in deep learning models.
problem Theoretical understanding of incorporating invariance into deep learning models is lacking.
method Data augmentation and feature averaging are analyzed in the context of invariance in deep learning.
result Training with data augmentation leads to better estimates of risk and gradients, and feature averaging reduces generalization error with convex losses.
VIB is Half Bayesstat.ML
VIB balances empirical and Bayesian approaches in predictive models.
problem Balancing empirical and Bayesian methods in predictive models.
method VIB as a compromise between empirical and Bayesian objectives.
result VIB minimizes risks due to finite sampling of targets.
Overparameterization aids in model pruning, leading to improved test accuracy.
problem Improving lightweight model performance through pruning.
method Theoretical analysis and high-dimensional asymptotics of model pruning in overparameterized neural networks.
result Even with known informative features, training a large model and then pruning leads to better test accuracy.
Imputation for prediction often offers limited benefits, especially with powerful models.
problem The challenge of missing data in predictive models.
method Comparative analysis of imputation methods across various predictive models and datasets.
result Advanced imputation methods often offer limited benefits for powerful predictive models.
Study adaptive clinical trial methods for identifying patient subpopulations with treatment benefit.
problem Adaptive identification of patient subpopulations with treatment benefit in clinical trials.
method Proposes AdaGGI and AdaGCPI meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction.
result Empirical investigation of AdaGGI and AdaGCPI performance across various simulation scenarios.
Exponential functionals of Brownian motion have been extensively studied in financial and insurance mathematics due to their broad applications, for example, in the pricing of Asian options. The Black-Scholes model is appealing because of mathematical tractability, yet empirical evidence shows that geometric Brownian m…
Efficient Reinforcement Learning usually takes advantage of demonstration or good exploration strategy. By applying posterior sampling in model-free RL under the hypothesis of GP, we propose Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling Reinforcement Learning(GPPSTD) algorithm in continuous state space, giving theoretical justif…
Risk Without Returnq-fin.ST
Risk-only investment strategies have been growing in popularity as traditional in- vestment strategies have fallen short of return targets over the last decade. However, risk-based investors should be aware of four things. First, theoretical considerations and empirical studies show that apparently dictinct risk-based …
The paper proves deep learning can be robust with certain loss functions.
problem The robustness of deep learning models under flawed data.
method Empirical-risk minimization with unbounded, Lipschitz-continuous loss functions.
result These loss functions provide efficient prediction under minimal data assumptions.
This work provides a strong baseline for the problem of multi-source multi-target domain adaptation and generalization in medical imaging. Using a diverse collection of ten chest X-ray datasets, we empirically demonstrate the benefits of training medical imaging deep learning models on varied patient populations for ge…
The paper optimizes A/B tests by balancing lift and cost in large-scale settings.
problem Balancing lift and cost in A/B tests for large-scale experimentation.
method Empirical Bayes approach using a greedy knapsack algorithm to rank experiments based on lift-to-cost ratio, incorporating local false discovery rate (lfdr).
result The proposed method maximizes expected profit while controlling false discovery rate, demonstrating superior performance in large-scale settings.
The paper analyzes the benefit-cost ratio for feature selection in machine learning.
problem Tackling the challenge of distinguishing relevant features from noise in feature selection.
method Simulation study with different cost and data settings to analyze the benefit-cost ratio.
result The benefit-cost ratio can overemphasize cheap noise features in scenarios with large cost differences and small effect sizes.
Study shows benefits of transfer learning with neural networks.
problem Understanding generalization errors in transfer learning.
method Mean-field analysis applied to -ERM and fine-tuning.
result Established conditions for generalization error and convergence rates.
Research finds investors may lose from more diverse workplaces.
problem Investors' returns may be lower in more diverse companies.
method Examined D&I scores by Refinitiv in US and European markets.
result Investors may suffer lower returns for investing in more diverse companies.
We present new methods for batch anomaly detection in multivariate time series. Our methods are based on maximizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the data distribution within and outside an interval of the time series. An empirical analysis shows the benefits of our algorithms compared to methods that treat e…
ACV improves structured data CV, handling dependence and noisy initial fits.
problem Structured data CV is slow due to expensive algorithm re-runs.
method Extend ACV to handle dependence and noisy initial fits.
result ACV provides accurate and efficient CV for structured data.
Collider regression improves predictive performance in regression tasks.
problem Discarding prior causal knowledge in regression tasks.
method Collider regression framework incorporating probabilistic causal knowledge from collider structures.
result Proves positive generalization benefit and provides closed-form estimators.
Orthogonal initialization speeds up convergence in deep linear networks.
problem The impact of initialization on convergence speed and model performance in deep neural networks.
method Analysis of orthogonal initialization in deep linear networks, proving its superiority over Gaussian initialization.
result Orthogonal initialization speeds up convergence relative to Gaussian initialization in deep networks.
Graph transformers outperform graph convolutions by preserving community information.
problem Understanding why graph transformers perform well in node-level prediction tasks.
method Analyzing the Gaussian process limits of graph transformers with infinite width and infinite heads.
result Graph transformers maintain discriminative node representations even in deep layers, preventing oversmoothing.
The paper optimizes RV estimation by efficient sampling in time-changed diffusion models.
problem Improving realized variance (RV) estimation in time-changed diffusion models.
method Theoretical analysis and simulations of hitting time and realized business time sampling schemes.
result Realized business time sampling is empirically most efficient for high noise levels.
On the Disconnect Between Theory and Practice of Neural Networks: Limits of the NTK Perspectivecs.LG
NTK theory fails to predict practical behavior of large-width neural networks.
problem Theoretical limits of NTK do not match practical neural network architectures.
method Empirical investigation of NTK's applicability to large-width architectures.
result Practically relevant behavior of large-width architectures differs from NTK theory.
Paper proves IRLS converges to subspace from any start, with practical benefits.
problem Robust subspace estimation in machine learning.
method Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (IRLS) with dynamic smoothing regularization.
result IRLS converges linearly to the underlying subspace from any initialization under deterministic conditions.
Bayesian optimization improves molecule design by addressing three pitfalls.
problem Bayesian optimization pitfalls cause poor performance in molecule design.
method Identified and addressed three pitfalls: incorrect prior width, over-smoothing, and inadequate acquisition function maximization.
result Basic BO setup achieves highest performance on PMO benchmark.
We propose a sampling scheme suitable for reducing a data set prior to selecting a hypothesis with minimum empirical risk. The sampling only considers a subset of the ultimate (unknown) hypothesis set, but can nonetheless guarantee that the final excess risk will compare favorably with utilizing the entire original dat…
State Space Expectation Propagation: Efficient Inference Schemes for Temporal Gaussian Processesstat.ML
Unified framework for efficient Gaussian process inference.
problem Efficient inference in non-conjugate Gaussian process models.
method Combines expectation propagation with linearization for improved efficiency.
result Unified view of various inference schemes, including classical smoothers and EP.
Analyzes when and why curricula help neural networks learn.
problem Why and when does curriculum learning help neural networks?
method Statistical physics methods applied to a neural network model.
result Curricula can modestly speed up learning but do not provide generalization benefit.
Multitask learning aims at solving a set of related tasks simultaneously, by exploiting the shared knowledge for improving the performance on individual tasks. Hence, an important aspect of multitask learning is to understand the similarities within a set of tasks. Previous works have incorporated this similarity infor…
Semi-supervised learning benefits the rich more than the poor, affecting fairness.
problem Disparate impact of semi-supervised learning on different sub-populations.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of a broad family of SSL algorithms using pseudo-labels.
result Semi-supervised learning benefits the rich more than the poor, potentially violating fairness.
New approach improves model robustness and calibration in latent space.
problem Improving model robustness and calibration under input perturbations.
method VarMixup (Variational Mixup) in latent space of VAEs.
result Models trained with VarMixup in latent space are more robust and calibrated.
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
We develop a family of accelerated stochastic algorithms that minimize sums of convex functions. Our algorithms improve upon the fastest running time for empirical risk minimization (ERM), and in particular linear least-squares regression, across a wide range of problem settings. To achieve this, we establish a framewo…
We consider a new family of operators for reinforcement learning with the goal of alleviating the negative effects and becoming more robust to approximation or estimation errors. Various theoretical results are established, which include showing on a sample path basis that our family of operators preserve optimality an…
We develop computationally efficient Riemannian manifolds for graph embeddings.
problem Challenging to maintain computational tractability in non-Euclidean graph embeddings.
method Explore computationally efficient matrix manifolds for graph embeddings.
result Consistent improvements over Euclidean geometry and outperforming hyperbolic and elliptical embeddings.
We introduce Threatened Markov Decision Processes (TMDPs) as an extension of the classical Markov Decision Process framework for Reinforcement Learning (RL). TMDPs allow suporting a decision maker against potential opponents in a RL context. We also propose a level-k thinking scheme resulting in a novel learning approa…
This paper explains why distributional reinforcement learning is better than vanilla RL using small-loss bounds.
problem Understanding when and why distributional reinforcement learning (DistRL) is superior to vanilla reinforcement learning (RL).
method The paper uses small-loss bounds to explain the benefits of DistRL, proposing algorithms and proving bounds for different RL settings.
result Distributional reinforcement learning (DistRL) outperforms vanilla RL when optimal costs are small, as shown by small-loss bounds.
New study finds targeting based on treatment effects outperforms risk-based targeting in social interventions.
problem Lack of accurate treatment effect estimates for machine learning-based targeting in social domains.
method Empirical assessment of targeting strategies using data from 5 real-world RCTs in various domains.
result Treatment effect-based targeting outperforms risk-based targeting, even with biased estimates.
This report provides an in-depth overview over the implications and novelty Generalized Variational Inference (GVI) (Knoblauch et al., 2019) brings to Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) (Damianou & Lawrence, 2013). Specifically, robustness to model misspecification as well as principled alternatives for uncertainty quantif…
New method improves estimation of complex models from conditional moment restrictions.
problem Estimation of complex models from conditional moment restrictions.
method Functional Generalized Empirical Likelihood (GEL) with a practical method.
result The method achieves state-of-the-art performance on two problems.
We examine the impact of learning Lipschitz continuous models in the context of model-based reinforcement learning. We provide a novel bound on multi-step prediction error of Lipschitz models where we quantify the error using the Wasserstein metric. We go on to prove an error bound for the value-function estimate arisi…
New framework improves cost-benefit analysis of policies.
problem Limitations of MVPF in welfare analysis.
method Developed an axiomatic framework to create RPV.
result RPV provides better equity-efficiency trade-off quantification.
Recent seminal work at the intersection of deep neural networks practice and random matrix theory has linked the convergence speed and robustness of these networks with the combination of random weight initialization and nonlinear activation function in use. Building on those principles, we introduce a process to trans…