A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study detects emerging trends in financial news articles about Microsoft.
We investigate possible origins of trends using a deterministic threshold model, where we refer to long-term variabilities of price changes (price movements) in financial markets as trends. From the investigation we find two phenomena. One is that the trend of monotonic increase and decrease can be generated by dealers…
Research examines how foreign direct investment in Vietnam affects stock returns.
Proposes LSTM for financial market trend forecasting.
Early detection and precise characterization of emerging topics in text streams can be highly useful in applications such as timely and targeted public health interventions and discovering evolving regional business trends. Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeli…
Predicts S&P 500 trends using machine learning models.
We show that the emergence of systemic risk in complex systems can be understood from the evolution of functional networks representing interactions inferred from fluctuation correlations between macroscopic observables. Specifically, we analyze the long-term collective dynamics of the New York Stock Exchange between 1…
An evolutionary game model analyzes e-commerce and traditional retail trends during the pandemic.
We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal characteristics, with some of the companies showing deviations at small and large scale…
Image segmentation is the process of partitioning an image into a set of meaningful regions according to some criteria. Hierarchical segmentation has emerged as a major trend in this regard as it favors the emergence of important regions at different scales. On the other hand, many methods allow us to have prior inform…
Trend-following strategies outperform in a noisy financial market, mirroring ancient wisdom.
This study analyzes EU ETS literature trends using bibliometric methods.
A text mining approach is proposed based on latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to analyze the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) consumer complaints. The proposed approach aims to extract latent topics in the CFPB complaint narratives, and explores their associated trends over time. The time trends will then be…
HERMES model predicts nonstationary fashion trends using social media data.
Machine learning simplifies finance, but faces challenges.
It has been shown that the long term evolution of the Gross Product of the World after World War II can be well portrayed by the exponential function with the crossover at the year 1973, cinsiding with the Oil Crisis onset. For the the Standard and Poor 500 index the single exponential behavior extends down to at least…
Study analyzes data breach reporting patterns and frequency across U.S. states, finding increasing trends after 2020.
We describe two recently proposed machine learning approaches for discovering emerging trends in fatal accidental drug overdoses. The Gaussian Process Subset Scan enables early detection of emerging patterns in spatio-temporal data, accounting for both the non-iid nature of the data and the fact that detecting subtle p…
Survey examines distillation methods for large language models.
A dynamical model is introduced for the formation of a bullish or bearish trends driving an asset price in a given market. Initially, each agent decides to buy or sell according to its personal opinion, which results from the combination of its own private information, the public information and its own analysis. It th…
In the last five years, the financial industry has been impacted by the emergence of digitalization and machine learning. In this article, we explore two methods that have undergone rapid development in recent years: Gaussian processes and Bayesian optimization. Gaussian processes can be seen as a generalization of Gau…
Modeling investor behavior from financial advisor notes using NLP.
Develops a new trend power indicator using DSP techniques.
We study the cross-correlation matrix of inventory variations of the most active individual and institutional investors in an emerging market to understand the dynamics of inventory variations. We find that the distribution of cross-correlation coefficient has a power-law form in the bulk followed by …
We propose a nonparametric model for time series with missing data based on low-rank matrix factorization. The model expresses each instance in a set of time series as a linear combination of a small number of shared basis functions. Constraining the functions and the corresponding coefficients to be nonnegative yields…
TSFMs embed non-stationary time series data, revealing specific types of changes.
Unified taxonomy categorizes DL-based MTSAD methods.
Forecast future volatilities and correlations based on current trends.
Explains the difference between EMA and moving EMA, focusing on market trend indicators.
Bitcoin's attention is linked to Google Trends data, not general uncertainty.
Study shows RNNs are effective for trend detection in time series.
Quantum walk model captures asymmetry and bimodality in long-term financial returns.
Enhanced trend-following strategy using network momentum for commodity futures.
Modeling poverty transitions in India over 54 years, showing rising but persistent poverty.
The need for appropriate ways to measure the distance or similarity between data is ubiquitous in machine learning, pattern recognition and data mining, but handcrafting such good metrics for specific problems is generally difficult. This has led to the emergence of metric learning, which aims at automatically learning…
This paper uses Bayesian models to analyze CTA returns across short and long-term trends.
Extracting the underlying trend signal is a crucial step to facilitate time series analysis like forecasting and anomaly detection. Besides noise signal, time series can contain not only outliers but also abrupt trend changes in real-world scenarios. To deal with these challenges, we propose a robust trend filtering al…
Paper uses AI to predict market trends better than traditional methods.
Variable speed limits (VSL) control is a flexible way to improve traffic condition,increase safety and reduce emission. There is an emerging trend of using reinforcement learning technique for VSL control and recent studies have shown promising results. Currently, deep learning is enabling reinforcement learning to dev…
Ethereum trends analyzed through blockchain transactions and Google searches.
The detrending moving average (DMA) algorithm is one of the best performing methods to quantify the long-term correlations in nonstationary time series. Many long-term correlated time series in real systems contain various trends. We investigate the effects of polynomial trends on the scaling behaviors and the performa…
Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.
Much information available on the web is copied, reused or rephrased. The phenomenon that multiple web sources pick up certain information is often called trend. A central problem in the context of web data mining is to detect those web sources that are first to publish information which will give rise to a trend. We p…
Enhanced LSTM predicts equity trends, outperforming traditional methods.
Empirical study on trends reversion in financial markets.
In this paper we study automatically recognized trends and investigate their statistics. To do that we introduce the notion of a wavelength for time series via cross correlation and use this wavelength to calibrate the 1-2-3 trend indicator of Maier-Paape [Automatic One Two Three, Quantitative Finance, 2013] to automat…
In this article, we discuss various implementation of L1 filtering in order to detect some properties of noisy signals. This filter consists of using a L1 penalty condition in order to obtain the filtered signal composed by a set of straight trends or steps. This penalty condition, which determines the number of breaks…
X-Trend quickly adapts to new financial regimes, increasing Sharpe ratio by 18.9%.