arXiv research

Agent-based modeling is a paradigm of modeling dynamic systems of interacting agents that are individually governed by specified behavioral rules. Training a model of such agents to produce an emergent behavior by specification of the emergent (as opposed to agent) behavior is easier from a demonstration perspective. W…

A standard belief on emerging collective behavior is that it emerges from simple individual rules. Most of the mathematical research on such collective behavior starts from imperative individual rules, like always go to the center. But how could an (optimal) individual rule emerge during a short period within the group…

A combination of a priority queueing model and mean field theory shows the emergence of traders' swarm behavior, even when each has a subjective prediction of the market driven by a limit order book. Using a nonlinear Markov model, we analyze the dynamics of traders who select a favorable order price taking into accoun…

The study examines collective behavior in banking sectors across mature and emerging markets.

Financial market is an example of complex system, which is characterized by a highly intricate organization and the emergence of collective behavior. In this paper, we quantify this emergent dynamics in the financial market by using concepts of network synchronization. We consider networks constructed by the correlatio…

This thesis explores emergent intelligence in disordered systems like spin glasses and neural networks.

Framework detects tipping points in complex systems using ML.

Modeling investor behavior from financial advisor notes using NLP.

Study reveals LLM personality patterns but lacks behavioral consistency.

We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal characteristics, with some of the companies showing deviations at small and large scale…

Meta-causal states group equivalent qualitative causal dynamics, useful for analyzing system changes.

Study shows trust and trustworthiness emerge through reinforcement learning.

We propose a simple dynamical model of the formation of production networks among monopolistically competitive firms. The model subsumes the standard general equilibrium approach à la Arrow-Debreu but displays a wide set of potential dynamic behaviors. It robustly reproduces key stylized facts of firms' demographics. O…

To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the infor…

This paper presents a novel approach to the technical analysis of wireheading in intelligent agents. Inspired by the natural analogues of wireheading and their prevalent manifestations, we propose the modeling of such phenomenon in Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents as psychological disorders. In a preliminary step tow…

We show that the emergence of systemic risk in complex systems can be understood from the evolution of functional networks representing interactions inferred from fluctuation correlations between macroscopic observables. Specifically, we analyze the long-term collective dynamics of the New York Stock Exchange between 1…

Particle- and agent-based systems are a ubiquitous modeling tool in many disciplines. We consider the fundamental problem of inferring interaction kernels from observations of agent-based dynamical systems given observations of trajectories, in particular for collective dynamical systems exhibiting emergent behaviors w…

New AI governance framework tackles risks in finance.

Infants are experts at playing, with an amazing ability to generate novel structured behaviors in unstructured environments that lack clear extrinsic reward signals. We seek to replicate some of these abilities with a neural network that implements curiosity-driven intrinsic motivation. Using a simple but ecologically …

Proposes a new model to price options considering market forces beyond Black-Scholes.

In the age of globalization, it is natural that the stock market of each country is not independent form the other markets. In this case, collective behavior could be emerged form their dependency together. This article studies the collective behavior of a set of forty influential markets in the world economy with the …

Study replicates reference-dependent preferences impact on risk-return trade-off in Chinese stock market.

A deterministic system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economic activity among interacting agents. The values of the maps represent the wealth of the agents. The dynamics of the system is controlled by two parameters. One parameter expresses the growth capacity of the agents and the other describes the local…

Research explores how interconnected systems synchronize and how to control their behavior.

Social interactions and personal tastes shape our consumption behavior of cultural products. In this study, we present a computational model of a cultural market and we aim to analyze the behavior of the consumer population as an emergent phenomena. Our results suggest that the final market shares of cultural products …

The use of kinetic modelling based on partial differential equations for the dynamics of stock price formation in financial markets is briefly reviewed. The importance of behavioral aspects in market booms and crashes and the role of agents' heterogeneity in emerging power laws for price distributions is emphasized and…

We present an effective technique for training deep learning agents capable of negotiating on a set of clauses in a contract agreement using a simple communication protocol. We use Multi Agent Reinforcement Learning to train both agents simultaneously as they negotiate with each other in the training environment. We al…

In many environments, only a relatively small subset of the complete state space is necessary in order to accomplish a given task. We develop a simple technique using emergency stops (e-stops) to exploit this phenomenon. Using e-stops significantly improves sample complexity by reducing the amount of required explorati…

Framework preserves emergent physics in non-equilibrium systems from particle trajectories.

Standard economic theory assumes that agents in markets behave rationally. However, the observation of extremely large fluctuations in the price of financial assets that are not correlated to changes in their fundamental value, as well as the extreme instance of financial bubbles and crashes, imply that markets (at lea…

One of the principal statistical features characterizing the activity in financial markets is the distribution of fluctuations in market indicators such as the index. While the developed stock markets, e.g., the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have been found to show heavy-tailed return distribution with a characteristi…

Collective phenomena with universal properties have been observed in many complex systems with a large number of components. Here we present a microscopic model of the emergence of scaling behavior in such systems, where the interaction dynamics between individual components is mediated by a global variable making the …

Modeling HFT interactions reveals market instability.

A method based on wavelet transform and genetic programming is proposed for characterizing and modeling variations at multiple scales in non-stationary time series. The cyclic variations, extracted by wavelets and smoothened by cubic splines, are well captured by genetic programming in the form of dynamical equations. …

Active inference minimizes expected free energy for optimal behavior.

The paper explains emergent phenomena in deep learning using entropic forces.

In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of second-order uniformly elliptic operators on weighted Riemannian manifolds. They naturally emerge when studying spectral properties of the Laplace-Beltrami operator on families of manifolds with rapidly oscillating metrics. We appeal to the notion of H-convergence intro…

The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF…

We introduce a stochastic model to explain a double power-law distribution which exhibits two different Paretian behaviors in the upper and the lower tail and widely exists in social and economic systems. The model incorporates fitness consideration and noise fluctuation. We find that if the number of variables (e.g. t…

Microscopic models describing a whole of economic interactions in a closed society are considered. The presence of a tax system combined with a redistribution process is taken into account, as well as the occurrence of tax evasion. In particular, the existence is postulated, in relation to the level of evasion, of diff…

The paper reviews MARL and its causal challenges, advocating for a 'causality first' approach.

The Bohmian quantum approach is implemented to analyze the financial markets. In this approach, there is a wave function that leads to a quantum potential. This potential can explain the relevance and entanglements of the agent's behaviors with the past. The light is shed by considering the relevance of the market cond…

Mechanisms of human color vision are characterized by two phenomenological aspects: the system is nonlinear and adaptive to changing environments. Conventional attempts to derive these features from statistics use separate arguments for each aspect. The few statistical approaches that do consider both phenomena simulta…

To investigate the universality of the structure of interactions in different markets, we analyze the cross-correlation matrix C of stock price fluctuations in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. We find that this emerging market exhibits strong correlations in the movement of stock prices compared to developed…

This study is a detailed analysis of Speculation Game, a minimal agent-based model of financial markets, in which the round-trip trading and the dynamic wealth evolution with variable trading volumes are implemented. Instead of herding behavior, we find that the emergence of volatility clustering can be induced by the …

Through multi-agent competition, the simple objective of hide-and-seek, and standard reinforcement learning algorithms at scale, we find that agents create a self-supervised autocurriculum inducing multiple distinct rounds of emergent strategy, many of which require sophisticated tool use and coordination. We find clea…

This study investigates self-organizing dynamics in a stochastic exponential DAM model using Temporal Complexity.

Critical learning periods found in deep linear networks too.