Electricity consumption has increased exponentially during the past few decades. This increase is heavily burdening the electricity distributors. Therefore, predicting the future demand for electricity consumption will provide an upper hand to the electricity distributor. Predicting electricity consumption requires man…
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48 results for “electricity consumption”
Paper uses CVAE to simulate tariff impacts on electricity consumption.
problem Simulating tariff impacts on household electricity consumption.
method CVAE-based clustering and generation of consumption profiles.
result CVAE method can reproduce rebound and side effects in consumption profiles.
Panel semiparametric quantile regression neural network for electricity consumption forecastingstat.ML
PSQRNN model forecasts electricity consumption in China by integrating neural networks and quantile regression.
problem Electricity forecasting in China due to regional economic, social, and natural conditions.
method PSQRNN combines neural networks and semiparametric quantile regression to model electricity consumption.
result PSQRNN model outperforms traditional methods in forecasting electricity consumption in China.
Electricity accounts for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing emissions related to electricity consumption requires accurate measurements readily available to consumers, regulators and investors. In this case study, we propose a new real-time consumption-based accounting approach based on flow tracing. This…
Hierarchical structure of the countries based on electricity consumption and economic growthq-fin.ST
We investigate the hierarchical structures of countries based on electricity consumption and economic growth by using the real amounts of their consumption over a certain time period. We use of electricity consumption data to detect the topological properties of 60 countries from 1971 to 2008. These countries are divid…
New method for selecting clusters in residential electricity data.
problem Selecting useful clusters in electricity consumption data.
method Formalizing expert knowledge as external validation measures.
result Successfully reconstructed customer archetypes.
Bayesian model for energy consumption helps electric vehicles navigate efficiently.
problem Limited battery capacity in electric vehicles makes energy efficient navigation challenging.
method Developed an online learning framework using Bayesian models and exploration strategies like Thompson Sampling.
result Established rigorous regret bounds for Thompson Sampling in both single-agent and multi-agent settings.
Fast, interpretable electricity consumption scenarios for individual consumers.
problem Estimating unknown electricity consumption time series for reinforcement planning.
method Predictive Clustering Trees (PCTs) for efficient and interpretable scenario generation.
result PCTs generate accurate electricity consumption scenarios at least 7 times faster than state-of-the-art methods.
Most electricity systems worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures to collect relevant operational data. In particular, smart meters allow tracking electricity load consumption at a very disaggregated level and at high frequency rates. This data opens the possibility of developing new forecasting models…
Deep Recurrent Electricity Theft Detection in AMI Networks with Random Tuning of Hyper-parameterscs.LG
Modern smart grids rely on advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) networks for monitoring and billing purposes. However, such an approach suffers from electricity theft cyberattacks. Different from the existing research that utilizes shallow, static, and customer-specific-based electricity theft detectors, this paper p…
The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have to been analyzed. The source of time series data comes from Online Enerjisa Syst…
Motivated by electricity consumption metering, we extend existing nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithms to use linear measurements as observations, instead of matrix entries. The objective is to estimate multiple time series at a fine temporal scale from temporal aggregates measured on each individual serie…
Adaptive Methods for Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting During COVID-19 Lockdown in Francestat.AP
Adaptive models improve electricity demand forecasting during lockdown.
problem Poor load forecasting due to sudden consumption changes during lockdown.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with Kalman filters and expert aggregation.
result Significant reduction in prediction errors compared to traditional models.
Proposes a pricing agent using reinforcement learning to balance renewable energy demand.
problem Intermittent renewable energy sources challenge carbon-free electricity generation.
method Reinforcement learning approach to balance customer demand with renewable energy generation.
result Demonstrates improved electricity pricing strategy for renewable energy integration.
Dynamic Modeling of Price Responsive Demand in Real-time Electricity Market: Empirical Analysisstat.AP
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
Novel probabilistic models forecast residential heating and electricity demand at hourly resolution.
problem Accurate hourly forecasting of residential heating and electricity demand.
method Probabilistic deep learning models trained on gas-heated region data.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to NREL's ResStock model.
The paper analyzes MENA region's energy consumption and policy needs for renewable energy.
problem High dependency on oil and low renewable energy penetration in MENA region.
method Analysis of World Bank datasets and policy portfolio in MENA countries.
result MENA region has high potential for solar energy but faces challenges in decoupling economic growth from energy consumption.
We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key characteristics of electricity spot prices such as their link to fuel prices, consumption leve…
Crowdsourcing has been successfully applied in many domains including astronomy, cryptography and biology. In order to test its potential for useful application in a Smart Grid context, this paper investigates the extent to which a crowd can contribute predictive hypotheses to a model of residential electric energy con…
Model detects electricity theft with high accuracy.
problem Detecting electricity theft on imbalanced datasets.
method Multi-head self-attention mechanism with dilated convolutions and binary mask.
result Achieved AUC of 0.926, improving previous work by 17%.
In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\it day-ahead} and {\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices and the distributions of prediction errors for the electricity demand traded in tw…
Model equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets with uncertainty.
problem Formulate equilibrium model for intraday electricity trading with balancing constraints and uncertainty.
method Develop equilibrium model with agents' balancing constraints, forecasted consumption, production uncertainties, and Markov chain outages.
result Existence and uniqueness of equilibrium price as a martingale, with insights into price formation and impact of uncertainty.
Energy disaggregation in a non-intrusive way estimates appliance level electricity consumption from a single meter that measures the whole house electricity demand. Recently, with the ongoing increment of energy data, there are many data-driven deep learning architectures being applied to solve the non-intrusive energy…
Nonnegative matrix factorization with side information for time series recovery and predictionstat.ML
Motivated by the reconstruction and the prediction of electricity consumption, we extend Nonnegative Matrix Factorization~(NMF) to take into account side information (column or row features). We consider general linear measurement settings, and propose a framework which models non-linear relationships between features …
New RDPC dissimilarity measure improves time series clustering.
problem Improving time series clustering methods for diverse data.
method Combining weighted Pearson correlation with largest element-wise differences.
result RDPC outperforms existing methods in complex datasets.
Algorithm optimizes electricity procurement costs by 1.65%.
problem Minimizing energy cost while covering forecast consumption.
method Deep learning forecasting and deviation indicator.
result Reduction of 1.65% in costs compared to uniform policy.
We consider the setting of sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences based on specialized experts. We first provide a review of the relevant literature and present two theoretical contributions: a general analysis of the specialist aggregation rule of Freund et al. (1997) and an adaptation of fixed-share rules of He…
In order to improve the efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems, most countries worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures, and in particular household smart meters, in the residential sector. This technology is able to record electricity load time series at a very high frequency rates, info…
We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the clients minus the production from renewable energy. For a simple linear price impa…
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
New methods improve electricity load forecasting using hierarchical transfer learning.
problem Improving electricity load forecasts at national scale using smart meter data.
method Developed two hierarchical transfer learning methods based on stacking and aggregation of experts.
result Significant improvement in predictions compared to benchmark algorithms.
Bayesian model for energy-efficient EV navigation.
problem Limited battery capacity in electric vehicles.
method Bayesian modeling and online learning framework with exploration strategies.
result Established rigorous regret bounds for Thompson Sampling.
The recent research report of U.S. Department of Energy prompts us to re-examine the pricing theories applied in electricity market design. The theory of spot pricing is the basis of electricity market design in many countries, but it has two major drawbacks: one is that it is still based on the traditional hourly sche…
Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it diff…
The paper develops a method for forecasting power consumption at various levels of aggregation.
problem Forecasting power consumption at different levels of household aggregation.
method Three-step process: feature generation, aggregation, and projection.
result The method provides theoretical guarantees on prediction error and performs well on real data.
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
problem Accurate hourly electricity demand forecasting in the face of multifaceted uncertainties.
method Interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model using Generalized Additive Models (GAMs).
result Highlights vulnerability of countries to extreme weather scenarios under electric heating adoption.
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
Study shows visual feedback and monetary incentives reduce plugload energy consumption in commercial buildings.
problem Mitigating energy consumption in commercial buildings through occupant plugload control.
method Field experiments with visual feedback and monetary incentives in government and university buildings.
result Mean energy reduction of ~9.52% in office environments and ~21.61% in university environments with visual feedback.
Forecasting Electricity Pricesq-fin.ST
Research focuses on predicting electricity prices with complex models considering probabilistic forecasts.
problem Challenging task due to market dynamics and weather and business activity dependence.
method Shift from econometric to statistical/machine learning models, considering probabilistic forecasts.
result More accurate predictions with complex models and probabilistic measures.
AutoPQ automates quantile forecasting for smart grids, reducing workload and environmental impact.
problem Accurate and unbiased uncertainty quantification in probabilistic forecasting for smart grid operations.
method AutoPQ uses a conditional Invertible Neural Network (cINN) to generate quantile forecasts from point forecasts, automating model selection and hyperparameter optimization.
result AutoPQ outperforms state-of-the-art methods while reducing computational effort and environmental impact.
Frugal day-ahead forecasting of multiple local electricity loads by aggregating adaptive modelscs.LG
Frugal method predicts multiple local electricity loads efficiently.
problem Day-ahead forecasting of over 1000 substations in France.
method Adaptive generalized additive models with state-space representations, combined with transfer learning.
result Reduction of computational needs and emissions with competitive accuracy.
Additive Covariance Matrix Models: Modelling Regional Electricity Net-Demand in Great Britainstat.AP
The paper forecasts joint electricity demand across 14 British regions using additive models.
problem Forecasting regional electricity demand with cross-regional dependencies.
method Modified Cholesky parametrisation for multivariate Gaussian model, gradient boosting for model selection.
result The proposed model outperforms non-Gaussian copula-based models in forecasting.
Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) aims at separating a whole-home energy signal into its appliance components. Such method can be harnessed to provide various services to better manage and control energy consumption (optimal planning and saving). NILM has been traditionally approached from signal processing and elec…
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
problem Challenges in forecasting electricity demand at individual household level.
method Additive stacking method for probabilistic disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
result Improved accuracy in disaggregate electricity demand forecasting.
FedGAN trains GANs across distributed data sources with reduced communication.
problem Training GANs across non-independent data sources with privacy and communication constraints.
method FedGAN uses local generators and discriminators synced via an intermediary, proving convergence under standard assumptions.
result FedGAN converges and performs similarly to general distributed GANs with reduced communication complexity.
Proposes a new method for multivariate functional regression.
problem Multivariate functional regression with complex relationships.
method Nested reduced-rank regularization (NRRR) approach.
result Consistent and effective in fitting multivariate functional regression models.
This paper addresses the energy disaggregation problem, i.e. decomposing the electricity signal of a whole home to its operating devices. First, we cast the problem as a dictionary learning (DL) problem where the key electricity patterns representing consumption behaviors are extracted for each device and stored in a d…
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.