We refute Taleb's claim that election forecasts are arbitrage-violating.
problem The validity of probabilistic election forecasts using no-arbitrage pricing techniques.
method We use mild assumptions to show all forecasts are arbitrage-free.
result Taleb's heuristic for evaluating forecasts is incorrect.
Predicts Taiwan's 2016 election using online media data.
problem Predicting Taiwan's 2016 presidential election using online data.
method Leveraged heterogeneous social media data and Kalman filter to fuse signals.
result Public opinions in online media are more predictive than traditional polls.
Data set tracks real-time election results for 4 hours post-October 2019 Portuguese elections.
problem Real-time tracking of election results for predictive modeling.
method Real-time data collection and interval-based analysis.
result Data set supports various predictive modeling tasks including numerical forecasting.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
problem Predicting stock market volatility on Election Day.
method Combining large language models with specialized agents.
result EDSMF model improves S&P 500 prediction accuracy.
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
problem Limited spatial data and spatial dependence challenges in presidential election prediction.
method Proposes a novel transfer learning framework within the SAR model, using a two-stage algorithm with transferring and debiasing stages.
result Substantially improves prediction accuracy and outperforms traditional methods in U.S. presidential swing states.
ELECTS model predicts crop type early from satellite data.
problem Early decision-making in crop type mapping.
method End-to-end deep learning model with modular design.
result ELECTS reduces data requirements for accurate early predictions.
Paper uses Twitter data to analyze public opinion on economic issues during elections.
problem Limited, expensive, and time-consuming surveys for economic issues.
method Combines sentiment analysis and topic modeling for Twitter data.
result Effective analysis of economic concerns during the 2012 US presidential election.
Model election dynamics and disinformation impact using information flow.
problem Understanding the unpredictable evolution of election polls and disinformation effects.
method Model election dynamics by specifying the flow of relevant information, deriving poll statistics as outputs.
result Derived outputs (poll statistics) reveal insights into prediction, disinformation impact, and optimal information management strategies.
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
problem Predicting political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
method Structural break analysis and surrogate-based robustness tests.
result Human-driven stablecoin transactions shift significantly before major political events.
Proposes an arbitrage approach to estimate election outcomes as binary martingales.
problem Estimating binary election outcomes with accuracy and minimizing Brier score.
method Uses dual martingale process and arbitrage valuation to price elections.
result Arbitrage valuation minimizes Brier score and reflects uncertainty in outcomes.
Fuzzy Forests reduces feature space in high-dimensional survey data.
problem High-dimensional and highly correlated datasets in social science.
method Fuzzy Forests algorithm, a variant of Random Forests.
result Partisan polarization was the strongest factor in the 2020 presidential election.
The goal of this research was to find a way to extend the capabilities of computers through the processing of language in a more human way, and present applications which demonstrate the power of this method. This research presents a novel approach, Rhetorical Analysis, to solving problems in Natural Language Processin…
The 2016 US election results are inferred from census microdata.
problem Estimating vote shares for specific demographic groups from aggregated election data.
method Distribution regression with multinomial-logit model, exploratory data analysis.
result Estimates vote shares for specific demographic groups (e.g., white women, Trump supporters, etc.).
Study uses Viber and street polls to estimate Belarus election ratings and turnout.
problem Obtaining accurate ratings of candidates in Belarus's banned polls.
method Bayesian multilevel regression with poststratification.
result Estimated ratings and turnout contradict official election results.
CCA features from medical codes predict future surgeries.
problem Predicting future surgeries based on medical codes.
method Canonical correlation analysis applied to sequences of medical codes.
result CCA embeddings capture meaningful relationships among medical codes.
This study examines how political uncertainty affects U.S. stock markets, finding mixed results.
problem The impact of political uncertainty on U.S. stock markets during presidential election periods.
method Event-study methodology examining abnormal return behavior around election dates.
result Positive abnormal returns were found following election results, contradicting the uncertain information hypothesis.
Study on how elections affect democracy and development in Sub-Saharan Africa.
problem Understanding the impact of elections on democracy and development in Sub-Saharan Africa.
method Examined 33 Sub-Saharan African countries post-election, analyzing development indicators over a decade.
result Elections can lead to positive, negative, or no change in development, depending on the pre-election regime and election outcome.
A framework traces ideology changes on social media during the 2016 U.S. election.
problem Understanding how ideology changed on social media during the 2016 U.S. election.
method Jointly estimating ideology of users and news sites, tracing changes over time.
result Both liberal and conservative users became more polarized over time.
This paper examines how voter concentration affects election outcomes in district-based systems.
problem How does the spatial concentration of electors impact election results?
method The authors frame the spatial distribution of electors in a probabilistic setting and explore models to capture intra-district polarization. They use Likelihood-free Inference under the Approximate Bayesian Computation framework and supervised regression methods to estimate parameters.
result The models can capture statistical properties of real elections and show how voter distributions can change election results.
A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.
problem Describing EU election vote distributions.
method Tracing parallels between system energies of coupled nonlinear oscillators and party vote fractions.
result The Rayleigh-Jeans (RJ) theory well depicts EU vote results and candidate vote dispersion.
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
problem Determining optimal strategy for three candidates in an election.
method Closed-form solution using support rates, political spectrum positioning, time left, and information revelation rate.
result Optimal strategy can be complex, especially for candidates in the center of a polarized electorate.
The study uncovers stock synergy networks using mutual information in Indian stock market data.
problem Detecting clusters of stocks in synergy in the Indian Stock Market.
method Analysis of high frequency data, mutual information for non-linearity, comparison with correlation method.
result Mutual information method successfully identifies effective networks compared to correlation method.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
problem Understanding political motivations in decentralized prediction markets.
method Constructing PBLS from Polymarket data, analyzing 15k addresses, 4k events, 8k markets.
result Validated PBLS through internal and external comparisons, revealing political and profit motives.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
problem The role of prediction markets beyond forecasting.
method Transaction-level evidence from the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Signal Credibility Index (SCI).
result Price signals in prediction markets are more influential due to persistence, breadth of trader types, and cross-platform consensus.
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
problem Determining the minimum support level for a minor party in a pre-electoral coalition.
method Modeling political support as a stochastic process with a deterministic growth rate and applying Black-Scholes option pricing theory.
result The minimum support level for a minor party to gain a representative in a pre-electoral coalition.
Paper proposes a faster neural machine translation model using election methods and Q-learning.
problem Slower inference time in complex attention models.
method Modelled attention network using election methods and Q-learning.
result Inference time is less than a standard Bahdanau translator, results comparable.
Study reveals why polls were inaccurate in 2016 US election.
problem Why opinion polls were inaccurate in 2016 US election.
method Proposes clean sensing framework for optimal parameter estimation from heterogeneous data sources.
result Optimal polling strategy allocates resources based on data quality and quantity.
Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
problem Manipulation of prediction markets by high-budget agents.
method Agent-based simulations and analytic characterization of price dynamics.
result High-budget agents can temporarily shift prediction market prices.
Study of negative ads on social media during U.S. midterm elections.
problem Understanding the effectiveness and mechanisms of negative advertising on social media.
method Machine learning for sentiment analysis, AI image recognition, ordinal regressions.
result Negative ads are less effective than previously thought, anger is a key mechanism.
New model reveals voter preferences from aggregate election data.
problem Infer individual-level voter preferences from aggregate election data.
method Modeling aggregate count data as Poisson binomial, relating probabilities to covariates using logistic and neural networks.
result Model predicts voter preferences at precinct and individual levels.
New results for modeling voter probabilities in elections.
problem Modeling voter preferences with aggregate data and individual covariates.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for Poisson binomial distribution, approximated with heteroscedastic Gaussian.
result Existence and curvature results for the MLE of the Poisson binomial likelihood.
New model detects postoperative complications early after surgery.
problem Early detection of postoperative complications in patients.
method Hidden Markov Model sequence classifier analyzing postoperative temperature sequences.
result Improved classification performance compared to other machine learning classifiers.
PPI uses proxy data to improve inference from limited labels across related tasks.
problem Statistical inference with limited labels across multiple related tasks.
method Prediction-powered inference framework that uses cross-task recalibration to improve power and accuracy.
result Cross-task recalibration can substantially reduce confidence interval widths when labels are scarce.
New statistical models for predicting ranked preferences from partial orders.
problem Statistical models overlook information in list length.
method Composite and augmented ranking models for joint modeling of partial orders and list lengths.
result Augmented ranking models best predict both length and preferences.
Geometric Graph Alignment enhances IoT intrusion detection using NID data.
problem Data scarcity hinders IoT intrusion detection accuracy.
method Geometric Graph Alignment (GGA) approach to transfer knowledge between network intrusion detection and IoT intrusion detection domains.
result GGA approach boosts IoT intrusion detection performance on multiple datasets.
Study examines BRICS markets' vulnerability to Trump's policies.
problem Vulnerability of BRICS stock markets to Trump's election impact.
method Event-study methodology and social media, search queries, and public opinion polls integration.
result China and Brazil were hit hard, while India and South Africa suffered less.
Detects anomalous behavior in social media users by analyzing content and connections.
problem Identifying disruptive patterns in user behavior on social media platforms.
method Joint representation learning of content and connection to detect anomalous behavior.
result Observed densely connected users engaging in local politics and exhibiting troll-like behavior.
Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction …
The study analyzes meta-data of viral tweets to distinguish fake news from real ones.
problem Identifying political fake news on Twitter using metadata.
method Analysis of 1.5M tweets from the 2016 US election, focusing on viral tweets.
result Significant differences found in followers, URLs, and user verification.
Crowd opinions in microblogs can predict event outcomes, matching with expert opinions.
problem Utilizing crowd wisdom for event outcome prediction in microblogs.
method Multi-label sentiment classification of tweets to gauge crowd opinion and compare with expert predictions.
result Crowd opinions in microblogs often match with expert opinions, especially in non-debate events.
Pension benefits valuation with Florida second election and DB Underpin options.
problem Valuation of hybrid pension benefits with embedded options.
method Arbitrage-free pricing methodology to value Bermudan options.
result Illustrates the difference between FSE, DB Underpin, and Bermudan DB Underpin options.
New method evaluates language model forecasters by checking consistency of predictions.
problem Evaluating the performance of language model forecasters is difficult due to lack of ground truth.
method Developed a consistency check framework based on arbitrage to evaluate forecasters.
result Consistency metrics correlate with ground truth performance of LLM forecasters.
Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
problem Estimating causal effects in sharp and fuzzy RD/RK designs.
method Hierarchical Gaussian Process models for regression and classification.
result Hierarchical GP models improve precision and coverage of RD/RK estimations.
This study predicts individual-level events using social dynamics and variational inference.
problem Predicting individual-level events in social systems.
method Stochastic kinetic model and variational inference algorithm.
result The proposed method is more efficient than sampling and achieves high accuracy.
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
problem Ensuring honest committees in committee-based consensus protocols.
method Empirical analysis of simpler voting strategies and their convergence to optimality.
result Simpler voting strategies converge to optimality exponentially quickly, ensuring robustness and efficiency.
Bitcoin became a strong safe haven after Trump's win, but its status varies over time.
problem Determining Bitcoin's role as a safe haven during market turmoil.
method Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition-based approach to analyze correlations.
result Bitcoin's safe-haven property is time-varying, being a weak safe haven in the short term and long term.
Estimates mode of discrete distributions with fewer samples.
problem Identifying the mode of a discrete distribution with high probability.
method Generalizes PPR martingale confidence sequences to handle multiple modes.
result PPR-1v1 stopping rule is asymptotically optimal and significantly more efficient.
Bayesian nonparametric models for data with heterogeneous particles.
problem Deconvolving data with heterogeneous particles, like voter tallies in elections.
method Nonparametric deconvolution models (NDMs) using two tiers of Dirichlet processes.
result NDMs can recover how factor distributions vary locally for each observation.