A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model election dynamics and disinformation impact using information flow.
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Remote sensing satellites capture the cyclic dynamics of our Planet in regular time intervals recorded in satellite time series data. End-to-end trained deep learning models use this time series data to make predictions at a large scale, for instance, to produce up-to-date crop cover maps. Most time series classificati…
We refute Taleb's claim that election forecasts are arbitrage-violating.
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined …
Data set tracks real-time election results for 4 hours post-October 2019 Portuguese elections.
Opinion polls have been the bridge between public opinion and politicians in elections. However, developing surveys to disclose people's feedback with respect to economic issues is limited, expensive, and time-consuming. In recent years, social media such as Twitter has enabled people to share their opinions regarding …
A framework traces ideology changes on social media during the 2016 U.S. election.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
This paper examines how voter concentration affects election outcomes in district-based systems.
A thermodynamic theory explains EU election vote distributions.
Fuzzy Forests reduces feature space in high-dimensional survey data.
Calculates winning probability for three candidates based on support rates and information timing.
The prevalence of online media has attracted researchers from various domains to explore human behavior and make interesting predictions. In this research, we leverage heterogeneous social media data collected from various online platforms to predict Taiwan's 2016 presidential election. In contrast to most existing res…
Proposes a transfer learning framework to improve U.S. election prediction models.
The study uncovers stock synergy networks using mutual information in Indian stock market data.
In accordance with "Democracy's Effect on Development: More Questions than Answers", we seek to carry out a study in following the description in the 'Questions for Further Study.' To that end, we studied 33 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, who all went through an election which should signal a "step-up" for…
Stratifying patients at risk for postoperative complications may facilitate timely and accurate workups and reduce the burden of adverse events on patients and the health system. Currently, a widely-used surgical risk calculator created by the American College of Surgeons, NSQIP, uses 21 preoperative covariates to asse…
Study uses Viber and street polls to estimate Belarus election ratings and turnout.
Paper proposes a faster neural machine translation model using election methods and Q-learning.
Study of negative ads on social media during U.S. midterm elections.
We consider the estimation of binary election outcomes as martingales and propose an arbitrage pricing when one continuously updates estimates. We argue that the estimator needs to be priced as a binary option as the arbitrage valuation minimizes the conventionally used Brier score for tracking the accuracy of probabil…
The goal of this research was to find a way to extend the capabilities of computers through the processing of language in a more human way, and present applications which demonstrate the power of this method. This research presents a novel approach, Rhetorical Analysis, to solving problems in Natural Language Processin…
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
Donald Trump was lagging behind in nearly all opinion polls leading up to the 2016 US presidential election, but he surprisingly won the election. This raises the following important questions: 1) why most opinion polls were not accurate in 2016? and 2) how to improve the accuracies of opinion polls? In this paper, we …
We combine fine-grained spatially referenced census data with the vote outcomes from the 2016 US presidential election. Using this dataset, we perform ecological inference using distribution regression (Flaxman et al, KDD 2015) with a multinomial-logit regression so as to model the vote outcome Trump, Clinton, Other / …
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an…
Detects anomalous behavior in social media users by analyzing content and connections.
Study shows how high-budget agents can manipulate prediction markets.
Variable annuities, as a class of retirement income products, allow equity market exposure for a policyholder's retirement fund with electable additional guarantees to limit the downside risk of the market. Management fees and guarantee insurance fees are charged respectively for the market exposure and for the protect…
New results for modeling voter probabilities in elections.
Bayesian estimators for causal inference using hierarchical Gaussian Processes.
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
The aggregation of k-ary preferences is a historical and important problem, since it has many real-world applications, such as peer grading, presidential elections and restaurant ranking. Meanwhile, variants of Plackett-Luce model has been applied to aggregate k-ary preferences. However, there are two urgent issues sti…
Estimates mode of discrete distributions with fewer samples.
Bayesian nonparametric models for data with heterogeneous particles.
We propose using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to generate features from sequences of medical billing codes. Applying this novel use of CCA to a database of medical billing codes for patients with diverticulitis, we first demonstrate that the CCA embeddings capture meaningful relationships among the codes. We th…
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, sen…
Geometric Graph Alignment enhances IoT intrusion detection using NID data.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
New statistical models for predicting ranked preferences from partial orders.
Consider a classification problem where we do not have access to labels for individual training examples, but only have average labels over subpopulations. We give practical examples of this setup and show how such a classification task can usefully be analyzed as a weakly supervised clustering problem. We propose thre…
We propose a model for tagging unstructured texts with an arbitrary number of terms drawn from a tree-structured vocabulary (i.e., an ontology). We treat this as a special case of sequence-to-sequence learning in which the decoder begins at the root node of an ontological tree and recursively elects to expand child nod…
Bayesian DL model improves DCMs for better predictive and inferential performance.
We replace the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) which is traditionally used in in continuous speech recognition with a bi-directional recurrent neural network encoder coupled to a recurrent neural network decoder that directly emits a stream of phonemes. The alignment between the input and output sequences is established usin…
PPI uses proxy data to improve inference from limited labels across related tasks.
This article presents a preliminary approach towards characterizing political fake news on Twitter through the analysis of their meta-data. In particular, we focus on more than 1.5M tweets collected on the day of the election of Donald Trump as 45th president of the United States of America. We use the meta-data embedd…