A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Replication study shows Deep-SE still not as effective as previously thought for agile effort estimation.
Software development effort estimation is considered a fundamental task for software development life cycle as well as for managing project cost, time and quality. Therefore, accurate estimation is a substantial factor in projects success and reducing the risks. In recent years, software effort estimation has received …
Adaptive Bernstein copulas improve risk management by preventing overfitting and reducing simulation effort.
Although there has been substantial research in software analytics for effort estimation in traditional software projects, little work has been done for estimation in agile projects, especially estimating user stories or issues. Story points are the most common unit of measure used for estimating the effort involved in…
Uncertainty computation in deep learning is essential to design robust and reliable systems. Variational inference (VI) is a promising approach for such computation, but requires more effort to implement and execute compared to maximum-likelihood methods. In this paper, we propose new natural-gradient algorithms to red…
Accurate annotation of medical image is the crucial step for image AI clinical application. However, annotating medical image will incur a great deal of annotation effort and expense due to its high complexity and needing experienced doctors. To alleviate annotation cost, some active learning methods are proposed. But …
Study uses Open Banking data to estimate customer value, showing potential 21% increase.
PANDA improves linear discriminant analysis in high dimensions with minimal tuning.
Recent research has shown that although Reinforcement Learning (RL) can benefit from expert demonstration, it usually takes considerable efforts to obtain enough demonstration. The efforts prevent training decent RL agents with expert demonstration in practice. In this work, we propose Active Reinforcement Learning wit…
The paper proposes a method to measure fairness through equality of effort using algorithmic recourse.
We design an active learning algorithm for cost-sensitive multiclass classification: problems where different errors have different costs. Our algorithm, COAL, makes predictions by regressing to each label's cost and predicting the smallest. On a new example, it uses a set of regressors that perform well on past data t…
Optimal allocation of human effort to correct AI assessments in decision-making.
Serverless cloud computing speeds up double machine learning model estimation.
We consider 1-qubit mixed quantum state estimation by adaptively updating measurements according to previously obtained outcomes and measurement settings. Updates are determined by the average-variance-optimality (A-optimality) criterion, known in the classical theory of experimental design and applied here to quantum …
Paper presents LSTMMDN for hourly bike flow estimation in Copenhagen.
Active learning reduces labeling efforts for QDE models.
Paper proposes a method to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly.
Reduces test set maintenance effort by 80-100%.
Many machine learning techniques sacrifice convenient computational structures to gain estimation robustness and modeling flexibility. However, by exploring the modeling structures, we find these "sacrifices" do not always require more computational efforts. To shed light on such a "free-lunch" phenomenon, we study the…
Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
At the core of interpretable machine learning is the question of whether humans are able to make accurate predictions about a model's behavior. Assumed in this question are three properties of the interpretable output: coverage, precision, and effort. Coverage refers to how often humans think they can predict the model…
Algorithms are often used to produce decision-making rules that classify or evaluate individuals. When these individuals have incentives to be classified a certain way, they may behave strategically to influence their outcomes. We develop a model for how strategic agents can invest effort in order to change the outcome…
Optimal contracts are found for agents with quadratic effort costs.
We put together some of the efforts by several people of making aspects of fibre bundle theory into algebra. The initiator of these efforts was Charles Ehresmann, who put the notion of groupoid and groupoid action in the focus of fibre bundle theory in general, and in connection theory in particular.
ControlSHAP stabilizes Shapley value approximations using control variates.
This paper makes the first attempt to introduce the tools from computer graphics into the art pricing research. We argue that the creation of a painting calls for a combination of conceptual effort and painting effort from the artist. However, as the important price determinants, both efforts are long missing in the tr…
Data on human spatial distribution and movement is essential for understanding and analyzing social systems. However existing sources for this data are lacking in various ways; difficult to access, biased, have poor geographical or temporal resolution, or are significantly delayed. In this paper, we describe how geoloc…
We study investment strategy in different models of financial markets, where the investors cannot reach a perfect knowledge about available assets. The investor spends a certain effort to get information; this allows him to better choose the investment strategy, and puts a selective pressure upon assets. The best strat…
There has recently been a concerted effort to derive mechanisms in vision and machine learning systems to offer uncertainty estimates of the predictions they make. Clearly, there are enormous benefits to a system that is not only accurate but also has a sense for when it is not sure. Existing proposals center around Ba…
Models like support vector machines or Gaussian process regression often require positive semi-definite kernels. These kernels may be based on distance functions. While definiteness is proven for common distances and kernels, a proof for a new kernel may require too much time and effort for users who simply aim at prac…
Conversion of raw data into insights and knowledge requires substantial amounts of effort from data scientists. Despite breathtaking advances in Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), data scientists still spend the majority of their effort in understanding and then preparing the raw data for ML/AI. Th…
arfpy simplifies data generation with adversarial random forests.
Entity resolution (ER) presents unique challenges for evaluation methodology. While crowdsourcing platforms acquire ground truth, sound approaches to sampling must drive labelling efforts. In ER, extreme class imbalance between matching and non-matching records can lead to enormous labelling requirements when seeking s…
Scout-Nd optimizes parameters of stochastic simulators efficiently.
Bayesian neural network predicts planetary instability.
We present an approach to interactive-predictive neural machine translation that attempts to reduce human effort from three directions: Firstly, instead of requiring humans to select, correct, or delete segments, we employ the idea of learning from human reinforcements in form of judgments on the quality of partial tra…
A central question for active learning (AL) is: "what is the optimal selection?" Defining optimality by classifier loss produces a new characterisation of optimal AL behaviour, by treating expected loss reduction as a statistical target for estimation. This target forms the basis of model retraining improvement (MRI), …
Optimal linear contracts are possible even with memory in Gaussian settings.
Paper proposes an end-to-end learning method for state estimation in robotics.
New method optimizes hyperparameters in deep learning models efficiently.
Study examines how market dynamics affect emissions trading prices and abatement efforts.
BBCI uses meta prediction to estimate causal effects from datasets.
We add a set of convex constraints to the lasso to produce sparse interaction models that honor the hierarchy restriction that an interaction only be included in a model if one or both variables are marginally important. We give a precise characterization of the effect of this hierarchy constraint, prove that hierarchy…
Many leading classification algorithms output a classifier that is a weighted average of kernel evaluations. Optimizing these weights is a nontrivial problem that still attracts much research effort. Furthermore, explaining these methods to the uninitiated is a difficult task. Letting all the weights be equal leads to …
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between different processes is presented; the efforts made by the bank to avoid the occurr…
Online algorithm for probabilistic forecasting of conditional moments.
We consider effort allocation in crowdsourcing, where we wish to assign labeling tasks to imperfect homogeneous crowd workers to maximize overall accuracy in a continuous-time Bayesian setting, subject to budget and time constraints. The Bayes-optimal policy for this problem is the solution to a partially observable Ma…
We propose a dynamical model for the estimation of Operational Risk in banking institutions. Operational Risk is the risk that a financial loss occurs as the result of failed processes. Examples of operational losses are the ones generated by internal frauds, human errors or failed transactions. In order to encompass t…