A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
We introduce a temperature into the exponential function and replace the softmax output layer of neural nets by a high temperature generalization. Similarly, the logarithm in the log loss we use for training is replaced by a low temperature logarithm. By tuning the two temperatures we create loss functions that are non…
A spin model relating physical to financial variables is presented. This work is the first to introduce the concept of negative absolute temperature into stock market dynamics by establishing a rigorous formal analogy between physical and financial variables. Based on this model, an algorithm evaluating negative temper…
Hyperfitting improves LLM generation quality by enhancing diversity, contrary to simple temperature scaling.
problem Improving open-ended generation quality of LLMs with minimal fine-tuning effort.
method Demonstrates that hyperfitting, a phenomenon where LLMs are fine-tuned to near-zero training loss, enhances generation quality and mitigates repetition.
result Hyperfitting is distinct from temperature scaling and involves a dynamic, context-dependent rank reordering mechanism in the final transformer block.
In this paper, we propose a novel uniform generalization bound on the time and inverse temperature for stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) in a non-convex setting. While previous works derive their generalization bounds by uniform stability, we use Rademacher complexity to make our generalization bound indepen…
Optimizes contrastive learning with individualized temperatures for better performance on imbalanced datasets.
problem The common practice of using a global temperature parameter ignores the varying semantic similarity across different anchor data.
method Proposes a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO) and an efficient stochastic algorithm for automatic temperature individualization.
result Our method automatically learns a suitable temperature for each sample, improving performance on imbalanced datasets.
Model uncertainty obtained by variational Bayesian inference with Monte Carlo dropout is prone to miscalibration. The uncertainty does not represent the model error well. In this paper, temperature scaling is extended to dropout variational inference to calibrate model uncertainty. Expected uncertainty calibration erro…
The effects of weather on agriculture in recent years have become a major global concern. Hence, the need for an effective weather risk management tool (i.e., weather derivatives) that can hedge crop yields against weather uncertainties. However, most smallholder farmers and agricultural stakeholders are unwilling to p…
Weather is a key production factor in agricultural crop production and at the same time the most significant and least controllable source of peril in agriculture. These effects of weather on agricultural crop production have triggered a widespread support for weather derivatives as a means of mitigating the risk assoc…
We define a random-matrix ensemble given by the infinite-time covariance matrices of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes at different temperatures coupled by a Gaussian symmetric matrix. The spectral properties of this ensemble are shown to be in qualitative agreement with some stylized facts of financial markets. Through the…
In a closed economic system, money is conserved. Thus, by analogy with energy, the equilibrium probability distribution of money must follow the exponential Gibbs law characterized by an effective temperature equal to the average amount of money per economic agent. We demonstrate how the Gibbs distribution emerges in c…
We present a methodology for probabilistic load forecasting that is based on lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) estimation. The model considered can be regarded as a bivariate time-varying threshold autoregressive(AR) process for the hourly electric load and temperature. The joint modeling approach…
Recently, Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been achieving impressive results on wide range of tasks. However, they suffer from being well-calibrated. In decision-making applications, such as autonomous driving or medical diagnosing, the confidence of deep networks plays an important role to bring the trust and reliabil…
This paper measures temperature in agent systems using volatility.
problem How to measure temperature in agent systems.
method Examined an agent system with two decision options in a news environment, established the measurement equation, and outlined the concept of temperature measurement.
result Illustrated a strategy for influencing average opinion in competing subsystems.
Attention temperature improves robustness of ICL in high-dimensional settings.
problem ICL robustness failure under distribution shift in high dimensions.
method Analyzed a Transformer with approximate softmax attention, derived a closed-form error expression, and showed optimal temperature minimizes error.
result Optimal attention temperature minimizes ICL generalization error under distribution shift.
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that …
This paper introduces a framework for combining scientific knowledge of physics-based models with neural networks to advance scientific discovery. This framework, termed physics-guided neural networks (PGNN), leverages the output of physics-based model simulations along with observational features in a hybrid modeling …