Clarifies interest rate cap rules for loans with unconventional cash flows.
problem Ambiguity in applying interest rate caps to loans with non-conventional internal rate of return (IRR).
method Clarified conventional IRR definition, axiomatized, and extended to all loans.
result Unique extension of interest rate cap rule for all loans, based on net present value test.
Unintended effects from scaling neural network outputs with adaptive learning rates.
problem Adaptive learning rate optimization's behavior is altered by output scaling, leading to misinterpretation.
method Presented a modified optimization algorithm to mitigate unintended effects.
result Adaptive learning rate's effectiveness is significantly impacted by output scaling, especially for small scaling factors.
RATE metrics evaluate treatment prioritization rules, subsuming existing methods.
problem Comparing and testing the quality of treatment prioritization rules.
method Rank-weighted average treatment effect (RATE) metrics.
result RATE metrics enable asymptotically exact inference in various study settings.
We argue that a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) can be an effect tool for macroeconomic stabilization. We first discuss how implementing negative rates on reserves held at a central bank does not pose any theoretical difficulty, with a reduction in rates operating in exactly the same way when rates are positive or…
The study shows interest rates impact investment and funding negatively but positively on dividend decisions.
problem The effect of interest rates on financial decisions like investment, funding, and dividend.
method Correlation coefficient analysis and descriptive methods.
result Interest rates have a negatively insignificant effect on investment and funding decisions, but positively moderate effect on dividend decisions.
The paper introduces mortgage-rate-adjusted home prices to help buyers and adjust housing indices.
problem Impact of mortgage rates on home prices and property purchase decisions.
method Derives mortgage-rate-adjusted 'effective price' and constructs a price-mortgage rate neutrality line.
result Mortgage rates significantly affect home prices over long periods but not during the pandemic.
Study uses ML to analyze how interest rates affect fund returns, finding gradient boosting is effective.
problem Understanding how interest rate changes impact fund returns.
method Combines Machine Learning and causal inference, using Double Machine Learning framework.
result Gradient boosting is useful for predicting fund returns, showing a significant negative effect of interest rate increases.
We explicitly test if the reliability of credit ratings depends on the total number of admissible states. We analyse open access credit rating data and show that the effect of the number of states in the dynamical properties of ratings change with time, thus giving supportive evidence that the ideal number of admissibl…
Statistical test verifies long-term rating system calibration with overlapping time windows.
problem Verifying supervisory requirements for overlapping time windows in rating systems.
method Analyzes long-run default rate distribution and correlation effects; presents conservative calibration test methods.
result Developed a test for individual and portfolio levels that can handle unknown variance.
In general, homeowners refinance in response to a decrease in interest rates, as their borrowing costs are lowered. However, it is worth investigating the effects of refinancing after taking the underlying costs into consideration. Here we develop a synthetic mortgage calculator that sufficiently accounts for such cost…
We first show that there are in fact triangular arbitrage opportunities in the spot foreign exchange markets, analyzing the time dependence of the yen-dollar rate, the dollar-euro rate and the yen-euro rate. Next, we propose a model of foreign exchange rates with an interaction. The model includes effects of triangular…
Model forecasts motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting motor vehicle collision rates with high accuracy.
method Adopted Heston Stochastic Volatility model and extended it to account for seasonality and accelerated safety periods.
result Short-term forecasts show high accuracy (over 95%) and outperform existing models.
Effects of randomness on non-integer power law tails in multiplicatively interacting stochastic processes are investigated theoretically. Generally, randomness causes decrease of the exponent of tails and the growth rate of processes. Explicit calculations are performed for two examples: uniformly distributed and two p…
Dropout regularizes against high-order interactions by canceling interaction rates.
problem Overfitting to high-order interactions in neural networks.
method Analyzes Dropout through the lens of interaction effects, showing how it effectively cancels out the probability of surviving interactions of different orders.
result Dropout regularizes against high-order interactions by effectively canceling out the probability of surviving interactions of different orders.
Introduces relative information gain for improving Gaussian process regression rates.
problem Improving the sample complexity of estimating or maximizing unknown functions.
method Introduces relative information gain, interpolates between effective dimension and information gain, and proves PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Obtains minimax-optimal rates of convergence through the relative information gain.
We introduce an autoregressive-type model with self-modulation effects for a foreign exchange rate by separating the foreign exchange rate into a moving average rate and an uncorrelated noise. From this model we indicate that traders are mainly using strategies with weighted feedbacks of the past rates in the exchange …
We review different approaches for measuring the impact of liquidity on CDS prices. We start with reduced form models incorporating liquidity as an additional discount rate. We review Chen, Fabozzi and Sverdlove (2008) and Buhler and Trapp (2006, 2008), adopting different assumptions on how liquidity rates enter the CD…
Derives effective continuous dynamics for adaptive SGD methods.
problem Analyzing noise in adaptive SGD methods.
method Stochastic modified equations framework and Malladi's scaling rules.
result Sampling-induced noise in SGD limits to independent Brownian motions.
This paper investigates the nonparametric regression problem using SVMs with anisotropic Gaussian RBF kernels. Under the assumption that the target functions are resided in certain anisotropic Besov spaces, we establish the almost optimal learning rates, more precisely, optimal up to some logarithmic factor, presented …
The paper identifies key macroeconomic events affecting exchange rate volatility.
problem Understanding which macroeconomic events impact exchange rate volatility.
method Data-driven approach to select relevant macroeconomic events using sparsity-based methods.
result The identified macroeconomic events significantly impact exchange rate volatility.
This paper investigates robust and efficient DR/RDR estimators for WATEs.
problem Lack of systematic investigation into robustness and efficiency conditions for WATE estimation.
method Proposes three RDR estimators using semiparametric efficient influence function and double/debiased machine learning.
result Demonstrates the practical relevance of the methods in medical and social sciences.
This study finds ESG rating disagreement reduces corporate productivity, especially in certain types of firms.
problem The impact of ESG rating disagreement on corporate productivity.
method Analysis of A-share listed companies data from 2015 to 2022 using XGBoost regression and SHAP.
result ESG rating disagreement reduces corporate productivity, especially in certain types of firms.
Study shows demonetization strengthened Indian currency and stock market.
problem Impact of demonetization on Indian stock market and foreign exchange rate.
method Daily rate of return analysis of foreign exchange rate and Nifty 50 index, use of dummy variable for demonetization period.
result Demonetization led to an upward trend in Indian stock market and strengthened the Indian currency (decreased foreign exchange rate).
The paper analyzes how learning rate affects SGD and provides insights into optimal rates.
problem Understanding the impact of learning rate on stochastic gradient descent.
method Developed a learning-rate-dependent stochastic differential equation (lr-dependent SDE) to analyze SGD.
result Established a linear rate of convergence for SGD and found the optimal linear rate by analyzing the spectrum of the Witten-Laplacian.
Adaptive learning rate algorithms such as RMSProp are widely used for training deep neural networks. RMSProp offers efficient training since it uses first order gradients to approximate Hessian-based preconditioning. However, since the first order gradients include noise caused by stochastic optimization, the approxima…
Flexible model captures commodity skews with maturity effects.
problem Capturing market skew in commodity futures with maturity effects.
method Non-parametric extension with leverage functions, calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation.
result Model accurately captures market smile and implied variance accumulation.
The purpose of this paper is to identify the immediate and future retailer response to wholesale stockouts. We perform a statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data of a local tool wholesaler and distributor, whose customers are retailers, over a period of four years. We investigate the effect o…
A new method to improve deep neural networks using weight rescaling.
problem Overfitting and sensitivity to hyperparameters in weight decay.
method Weight rescaling (WRS) to control weight norm and prevent overfitting.
result WRS outperforms weight decay and other methods in various applications.
Study analyzes how discounts affect train ticket purchases and rescheduling in Switzerland.
problem Understanding how discounts influence train ticket buying and rescheduling behavior.
method Machine learning techniques, including causal machine learning, to analyze survey data.
result Increasing a discount rate by 1% increases the rescheduled trip share by 0.16% among always buyers.
New asymptotic formula for option prices with interest rates and dividend yield effects.
problem Deriving option prices with interest rates and dividend yield effects in the local volatility model.
method Developed a new asymptotic limit for short-maturity option prices, including interest rates and dividend yield effects.
result Generalized the Berestycki-Busca-Florent formula to all orders in n for interest rates and dividend yield effects. AI improves credit rating predictions over traditional methods.
problem Improving credit rating predictions for global corporate entities.
method Applying deep learning techniques, specifically neural networks with categorical embeddings, to a large dataset of corporate obligations.
result Deep learning models achieve adequate accuracy in predicting different credit rating classes.
Novel framework identifies pump-specific deterioration rates using Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling and causal discovery.
problem Challenges in asset management due to heterogeneous deterioration rates in pump equipment.
method Bayesian hierarchical hazard modeling with causal discovery, GPU-accelerated No-U-Turn Sampling (NUTS), and DirectLiNGAM.
result Identified striking heterogeneity in deterioration rates, with negative effects 400 times larger than positive effects.
This paper uses LLMs to improve equity stock ratings by ingesting diverse financial and news data.
problem Challenges in traditional stock rating methods, including data overload, inconsistencies, and delayed reactions.
method Application of LLMs to generate multi-horizon stock ratings using various datasets.
result LLMs enhance the accuracy and consistency of stock ratings, outperforming traditional methods in forward returns.
Study separates learning rate effects from adaptive gradient methods.
problem Understanding the impact of learning rates on neural network training.
method Introduced a 'grafting' experiment to isolate learning rate effects.
result Many existing beliefs about adaptive gradient methods may be incorrect.
Study examines how COVID-19 affected India's exchange rates and stock market.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on India's financial markets during and after lockdown.
method Secondary data analysis using VAR models across different phases of lockdown and unlock.
result Increase in confirmed cases does not significantly affect exchange rate and stock market.
Research examines impact of Brexit on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
problem Impact of Brexit on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
method Investigates financial market reactions to Brexit news.
result Magnitude and direction of impact on GBP/EUR exchange rate.
Noise affects the effectiveness of interpolating models, especially those with strong inductive biases.
problem The impact of noise on interpolating models with strong inductive biases.
method Analyzing linear and classification models with sparse ground truths, proving fast rates for interpolators.
result Strong inductive biases can lead to faster but noisier interpolators, contrary to intuition.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) are known vulnerable to adversarial attacks. That is, adversarial examples, obtained by adding delicately crafted distortions onto original legal inputs, can mislead a DNN to classify them as any target labels. This work provides a solution to hardening DNNs under adversarial attacks through…
SVAR-LiNGAM reveals causal order in crypto-asset markets.
problem Understanding the causal relationships between spot rates and crypto-assets.
method Applied SVAR-LiNGAM to analyze spot exchange rates and crypto-asset exchange rates.
result Causal order found: EUR_USD spot rate -> Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> Ripple.
Inspired by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and its consequences on the global financial system, we develop a simple model in which the Lehman default event is quantified as having an almost immediate effect in worsening the credit worthiness of all financial institutions in the economic network. In our stylized desc…
GOLS-I automatically determines learning rates for various neural network training algorithms.
problem Adapting learning rates in stochastic training algorithms for neural networks.
method Gradient-Only Line Search (GOLS-I) for automatically setting learning rates.
result GOLS-I learning rate schedules are competitive with manually tuned rates across multiple algorithms, architectures, datasets, and loss functions.
Model shows how discount rates affect intergenerational equity in climate mitigation.
problem Intergenerational equity in climate mitigation decisions.
method Extended DICE model with stochastic discount rates and financing extensions.
result Discount-rate uncertainty amplifies intergenerational inequality in climate mitigation.
LALR adapts learning rate for faster convergence in regression and neural nets.
problem Finding optimal learning rates for faster convergence in regression and neural networks.
method Lipschitz continuity theory applied to Mean Absolute Error and Quantile loss functions.
result Adaptive learning rate policy enables up to 20x faster convergence.
This paper introduces an innovative Bayesian machine learning algorithm to draw interpretable inference on heterogeneous causal effects in the presence of imperfect compliance (e.g., under an irregular assignment mechanism). We show, through Monte Carlo simulations, that the proposed Bayesian Causal Forest with Instrum…
MSTGD optimizes gradient descent with stratified sampling for faster convergence.
problem Fluctuation in gradient expectation and variance between iterations.
method Memory Stochastic Stratified Gradient Descent (MSTGD) with stratified sampling and variance reduction.
result MSTGD achieves an exponential convergence rate independent of dataset size and batch size.
Study shows deep linear networks can converge to flatter minima at large learning rates.
problem Understanding the implicit bias of deep linear networks at large learning rates.
method Characterization of deep linear networks for binary classification using logistic loss in the large learning rate regime.
result Gradient descent iterates converge to a flatter minimum in the catapult phase for certain data separation conditions.
The paper shows measures equidistribute on affine submanifolds with a rate.
problem Understanding equidistribution of measures on affine invariant submanifolds.
method Analyzing unstable foliations and using results from homogeneous dynamics.
result Measures of large dimension equidistribute on affine invariant submanifolds with an effective rate.
This paper explains why Adam generalizes worse than SGD by analyzing its components.
problem Understanding why Adam generalizes worse than Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD).
method Diffusion theoretical framework to disentangle the effects of Adaptive Learning Rate and Momentum.
result Adaptive Learning Rate helps escape saddle points but not select flat minima, while Momentum provides a drift effect to help pass through saddle points.