Study shows short exposure and systematic risk exposure affect disposition effect asymmetries.
problem Understanding disposition effect in short vs long exposure positions and systematic risk.
method Generalized Odean measures, introduced Value metric, implemented dispositionEffect R package.
result Short positions exhibit weaker disposition effect than long positions under narrow framing, reversing in integrated framing.
CENNSurv models cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
problem Challenges in modeling cumulative effects of time-dependent exposures on survival outcomes.
method CENNSurv, a novel deep learning approach that captures dynamic risk relationships from time-dependent data.
result CENNSurv reveals multi-year lagged and short-term behavioral shifts in survival outcomes.
Unified framework for estimating indirect effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounding.
problem Challenges in evaluating indirect effects due to unmeasured confounding and unethical exposures.
method Developed a unified identification and estimation framework using proximal causal inference.
result Unified identification and estimation of PIIE and causal effect of an intervening variable in settings with pervasive unmeasured confounding.
Measurement and management of credit concentration risk is critical for banks and relevant for micro-prudential requirements. While several methods exist for measuring credit concentration risk within institutions, the systemic effect of different institutions' exposures to the same counterparties has been less explore…
Decomposes spillover effects under misspecified exposure mappings.
problem Modeling outcomes as functions of own treatment and a misspecified exposure mapping of others' treatments.
method Pseudo-true estimands and local-global extension for structured misspecification.
result Sharp asymptotic decomposition into direct, local, and global components.
In epidemiology, identifying the effect of exposure variables in relation to a time-to-event outcome is a classical research area of practical importance. Incorporating propensity score in the Cox regression model, as a measure to control for confounding, has certain advantages when outcome is rare. However, in situati…
Paper optimizes neural networks for Bermudan option pricing with faster convergence and risk management tools.
problem Efficiently pricing Bermudan options with static hedging and risk management.
method Monte-Carlo-based artificial neural network framework with novel optimisation algorithm.
result The proposed neural network accelerates convergence and provides improved risk management tools.
The paper clarifies long-horizon investment and DCA, showing no risk reduction but different exposure profiles.
problem Misleading claims about reducing risk with longer investment horizons and DCA.
method Unified probabilistic framework, defining risk and uncertainty, and introducing effective investment exposure.
result Different investment timing strategies can lead to distinct exposure profiles over time, affecting risk and uncertainty.
Study estimates personalized effects of maternal PM2.5 exposure on birth weight.
problem Identify critical windows and heterogeneity in maternal PM2.5 exposure effects on birth weight.
method Heterogeneous Distributed Lag Models and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.
result Evidence of heterogeneity in PM2.5-birth weight relationship, with some dyads showing 3x larger decrease.
Randomized neural networks improve exposure and CVA estimation for American options.
problem Estimation of exposure and CVA for American options
method Randomized neural networks
result Improves convergence and efficiency in high-dimensional problems
Bounds and sensitivity analysis for causal effects with MNAR confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with missing outcome data.
method Assumption-free bounds and sensitivity analysis for outcome-independent MNAR.
result Valid bounds and sensitivity analysis methods for causal effect estimation.
Paper tackles exposure bias in recommender systems using contrastive learning.
problem Exposure bias in large-scale recommender systems.
method Contrastive learning to reduce exposure bias via inverse propensity weighting.
result Contrastive learning effectively reduces exposure bias in recommender systems.
New method analyzes complex multivariate pathways in high-dimensional data.
problem High-dimensional mediation analysis of multivariate exposures, mediators, and outcomes.
method Simultaneous variable selection, indirect effect matrix estimation, and prediction of multivariate outcomes.
result Identifies biologically interpretable genetic-neural-cognitive pathways.
Estimates vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates in TND studies with missing data.
problem Confounding and missing data in TND studies of vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates.
method Targeted maximum likelihood estimation using a semiparametric logistic regression model.
result Valid causal inference of vaccine effectiveness and immune correlates in TND studies with missing exposure data.
Exposure bias has been regarded as a central problem for auto-regressive language models (LM). It claims that teacher forcing would cause the test-time generation to be incrementally distorted due to the training-generation discrepancy. Although a lot of algorithms have been proposed to avoid teacher forcing and theref…
The study models mortgage prepayment risk, accounting for behavioral uncertainty, and provides replication strategies.
problem Modeling and replicating the prepayment option of mortgages with behavioral uncertainty.
method Modeling behavioral uncertainty as a non-hedgeable risk factor, proving its impact on exposure value, and using IRSs and swaptions for replication.
result Including behavioral uncertainty reduces the exposure's value, and swaptions are necessary for optimal replication.
A possible data source for the estimation of asset correlations is default time series. This study investigates the systematic error that is made if the exposure pool underlying a default time series is assumed to be homogeneous when in reality it is not. We find that the asset correlation will always be underestimated…
We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an exposure, the proposed approach aims to take into account the irreducible dispersions …
The paper tackles robust design selection for online experiments under uncertain interference mechanisms.
problem Designing experiments in ads, recommendations, and member-experience systems when interference mechanisms are unknown.
method Formulates the problem as robust design selection over uncertain exposure mechanisms. Compares designs by worst-case planning risk over an ambiguity set combining various factors.
result Develops a geometry-aware guarantee and robust selector theorem with excess-risk control, exact recovery under separation, and certified shortlists when the risk surface is flat.
Recently, the intervention calculus when the DAG is absent (IDA) method was developed to estimate lower bounds of causal effects from observational high-dimensional data. Originally it was introduced to assess the effect of baseline biomarkers which do not vary over time. However, in many clinical settings, measurement…
The study aims to prevent unfair content presentation in recommender systems.
problem Over- and under-presentation of content leads to biased user preference estimates.
method Two models are considered: one that ignores systematic and limited exposure, and another that conditions on limited exposure.
result Ignoring systematic presentations overestimates promoted options and underestimates censored alternatives.
Bayesian approach models nonignorable missing data using copulas and marginal quantiles.
problem Nonignorable missing data in lead exposure and test score analysis.
method Gaussian copula model with auxiliary marginal quantiles for missingness indicators and study variables.
result Efficient MCMC algorithm estimates copula correlation and marginal distributions consistently.
Researchers develop a new method to assess variable importance in spatial machine learning models for air pollution exposure prediction.
problem Understanding the mechanism captured by machine learning models in air pollution studies, especially with spatial correlation.
method Leave-one-out approach for variable importance measure applicable to models with separable mean and covariance components.
result The new method highlights differences in model mechanisms even for similar prediction accuracies.
A risk-averse agent hedges her exposure to a non-tradable risk factor U using a correlated traded asset S and accounts for the impact of her trades on both factors. The effect of the agent's trades on U is referred to as cross-impact. By solving the agent's stochastic control problem, we obtain a closed-form expr…
Methodology measures financial impacts using existing credit loss infrastructure.
problem Measuring the impact of financial scenarios on expected credit losses.
method Captures scenario effects through changes in default probabilities; uses existing provisioning infrastructure.
result Methodology validated through standardized climate scenario exercise in Canada and Quebec.
Green stocks show less factor exposure heterogeneity compared to brown stocks.
problem Exploring differences in factor exposure between green and brown stocks.
method Examined S&P 500 firms grouped by greenhouse gas emissions, analyzing factor exposure over 2014-2020.
result Green stocks have less factor exposure heterogeneity than brown stocks, except for the value factor.
TRESNET estimates exposure shifts with neural networks, improving causal inference.
problem Estimating the effect of distribution shift in treatment variables.
method Targeted Regularization for Exposure Shifts with Neural Networks (TRESNET).
result TRESNET provides robustness and efficiency guarantees for SRF estimation.
Systemic risk arises as a multi-layer network phenomenon. Layers represent direct financial exposures of various types, including interbank liabilities, derivative- or foreign exchange exposures. Another network layer of systemic risk emerges through common asset holdings of financial institutions. Strongly overlapping…
Study evaluates how changes in mobility affect COVID-19 case rates.
problem Mixed evidence on mobility-COVID-19 case rate associations.
method Modified treatment policy (MTP) approach with TMLE and Super Learner ensemble.
result Shifts in mobility do not consistently affect subsequent case rates after adjusting for confounders.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
In the present paper we provide a two-step principal protection strategy obtained by combining a modification of the Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) algorithm and a classical Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) mechanism. Such a novel approach consists in assuming that the percentage of wealth invest…
Measurement error in observational datasets can lead to systematic bias in inferences based on these datasets. As studies based on observational data are increasingly used to inform decisions with real-world impact, it is critical that we develop a robust set of techniques for analyzing and adjusting for these biases. …
Deep learning approximates Bermudan option exposures and future values.
problem Computing accurate expected and future exposures for high-dimensional Bermudan options.
method Neural network-based approach combining Deep Optimal Stopping and regression.
result Neural network approximations of pathwise option values are more accurate.
Paper develops a new estimator for dynamic treatment effects in high-dimensional settings.
problem Time-varying confounding and model misspecification in estimating dynamic treatment effects.
method Sequential model doubly robust estimator with moment-targeting estimates.
result Root-N inference achieved under model misspecification, even with high-dimensional covariates.
We consider thin incomplete financial markets, where traders with heterogeneous preferences and risk exposures have motive to behave strategically regarding the demand schedules they submit, thereby impacting prices and allocations. We argue that traders relatively more exposed to market risk tend to submit more elasti…
Valuation of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) has become an important field as its calculation is required in Basel III, issued in 2010, in the wake of the credit crisis. Exposure, which is defined as the potential future loss of a default event without any recovery, is one of the key elementsfor pricing CVA. This pap…
Develops a climate risk model for asset managers.
problem Climate-related risks affecting asset performance and productivity.
method Uses the Vasicek model with downward jumps to represent climate impacts on asset dynamics.
result Expected losses increase over time due to climate-related extreme events.
What we discover and see online, and consequently our opinions and decisions, are becoming increasingly affected by automated machine learned predictions. Similarly, the predictive accuracy of learning machines heavily depends on the feedback data that we provide them. This mutual influence can lead to closed-loop inte…
The study corrects measurement error in evaluating health effects of multiple pollutants.
problem Bias in estimating health effects of air pollution constituents due to mismeasurement.
method Used a linear regression calibration model and extended DML approach to correct for measurement error.
result Identified two PM2.5 constituents (Br and Mn) that show a negative causal effect on cognitive function after correction.
Estimates treatment effects in bipartite systems with partial eligibility and interference.
problem Randomized experiments in bipartite systems with partial treatment eligibility and interference.
method Formalizes eligibility-constrained bipartite experiments, defines PTTE and STTE, identifies conditions, develops ensemble estimators, introduces projection.
result Proposed estimators recover PTTE and STTE with low bias and variance, corrects interference bias in field experiments.
We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of distress propagation. The main features are as follows. First, the framework al…
We study the impact of central clearing of over-the-counter (OTC) transactions on counterparty exposures in a market with OTC transactions across several asset classes with heterogeneous characteristics. The impact of introducing a central counterparty (CCP) on expected interdealer exposure is determined by the tradeof…
This research develops a new framework to measure AI investment returns considering both gains and risks.
problem Traditional ROI calculations fail to account for AI's dual impact on risk reduction and new exposures.
method Integrates ISO 42001 and regulatory exposure into a comprehensive financial framework using risk quantification methods.
result Accurate AI investment evaluation requires modeling both productivity gains and risk exposures.
The paper proposes using function approximations to reduce the computational burden in measuring counterparty credit exposure.
problem The need for regular exposure calculations in finance, balancing between computational cost and risk simplification.
method Replacing derivative pricers with function approximations, proving error bounds, and using Chebyshev interpolation for convergence.
result Derives probabilistic and finite sample error bounds, showing significant run-time reductions and asymptotic efficiency gains.
LDP speeds up causal discovery by partitioning, improving VAS recall and runtime.
problem Hard causal discovery in nonparametric settings with exponential complexity.
method Local Discovery by Partitioning (LDP) for causal inference around exposure-outcome pairs.
result LDP yields less biased and more precise estimates than baseline methods.
Study prenatal PM2.5 exposure and 4th grade reading scores, identifying critical windows of susceptibility.
problem Understanding the impact of prenatal PM2.5 exposure on educational outcomes.
method Developed a locally adaptive Bayesian regression model with B-spline basis expansion and dynamic shrinkage priors.
result Prenatal PM2.5 exposure during early and late pregnancy is most adverse for 4th grade reading scores.
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
Over-the-counter derivatives have contributed significantly to the effectiveness and efficiency of the international financial system but also entail significant counterparty credit risk. Collateralization is one of the most important and widespread credit risk mitigation techniques used in derivatives transactions. Ho…