arXiv research

Ranking stock indices based on causal influence using directed information graphs.

In the current era of worldwide stock market interdependencies, the global financial village has become increasingly vulnerable to systemic collapse. The recent global financial crisis has highlighted the necessity of understanding and quantifying interdependencies among the world's economies, developing new effective …

New method ranks sectors and countries using local and aggregate I-O data.

The American economy can be thought of as a highly connected random network in terms of both its technological and informational connections. The cumulative size of economic recessions, the fall in output from peak to trough, is analysed for the US economy 1900-2002. A least squares fit of an exponential relationship b…

We present a new method of estimating the distribution of sales rates of, e.g., book titles at an online bookstore, from the time evolution of ranking data found at websites of the store. The method is based on new mathematical results on an infinite particle limit of the stochastic ranking process, and is suitable for…

Study finds Jamal Khashoggi's murder negatively impacts Saudi Arabia's economy.

Paper presents an econophysics model for mixed economies.

Most decision theories, including expected utility theory, rank dependent utility theory and cumulative prospect theory, assume that investors are only interested in the distribution of returns and not in the states of the economy in which income is received. Optimal payoffs have their lowest outcomes when the economy …

In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain an…

Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.

This study analyzes relationships between factor endowments and commodity outputs in a trade model.

New method quantifies systemic risk of firms in supply networks.

The study shows how probability weighting can lead to betting in a risk-averse economy.

Oil economy modeled using phase plots and Benard convection analogy.

Paper proposes a framework for token economy simulation and wealth distribution.

This paper ranks Latin American countries based on AI potential.

Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.

Analyzes how economic policies affect wealth distribution in Bitcoin token economy.

Paper outlines methodology for token economy modelling and event impact analysis.

We have studied numerically the statistical mechanics of the dynamic phenomena, including money circulation and economic mobility, in some transfer models. The models on which our investigations were performed are the basic model proposed by A. Dragulescu and V. Yakovenko [1], the model with uniform saving rate develop…

Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only …

We discuss a Pareto macro-economy (a) in a closed system with fixed total wealth and (b) in an open system with average mean wealth and compare our results to a similar analysis in a super-open system (c) with unbounded wealth. Wealth condensation takes place in the social phase for closed and open economies, while it …

The study finds significant financial sector volatility and tail risk spillovers to real economy sectors.

We study the competitive equilibrium of large random economies with linear activities using methods of statistical mechanics. We focus on economies with $C$ commodities, $N$ firms, each running a randomly drawn linear technology, and one consumer. We derive, in the limit $N,C\to\infty$ with $n=N/C$ fixed, a complete de…

Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.

Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant $λ= 0.12$. We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …

Study finds nighttime lights correlate with Indian GDP growth.

Associating stock mechanics to real economy, in terms of volume, number of transactions, and cost, i.e. money flow for shares, we obtained the fundamental laws of stock mechanics.

This study analyzes global oil trade networks to assess their efficiency and robustness.

The green area of economy is the key of healthy living. It is necessary to convene economic and ecologic framework to establish a market attentive to drastic reduction of emissions damaging our climate and landscapes in rural areas, to the protection of biological diversity of the planet, to stop producing nuclear wast…

We present a model of an economy inspired by individual based model approaches in evolutionary ecology. We demonstrate that evolutionary dynamics in a space of companies interconnected through a correlated interaction matrix produces time dependencies of the total size of the economy total number of companies, companie…

Model shows significant income inequality emerges from equal opportunities in a simple economy.

Expert system predicts credit card charge-offs using macroeconomic indicators.

The optimal (`equilibrium') macroscopic properties of an economy with $N$ industries endowed with different technologies, $P$ commodities and one consumer are derived in the limit $N\to\infty$ with $n=N/P$ fixed using the replica method. When technologies are strictly inefficient, a phase transition occurs upon increas…

A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.

Study on asset price dynamics in OLG economies with and without a bubbly asset.

Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix $G$ of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009. The construction of $G$, based on Markov chain transi…

Emerging economies use countercyclical policies to manage crises and dominant currencies.

Paper combines CNN and GBoost for better stock price prediction.

This study assesses how economic shocks affect the efficiency and robustness of international pesticide trade networks.

Develops a framework to assess systemic risk in the economy using bank-firm network data.

General equilibrium is the dominant theoretical framework for economic policy analysis at the level of the whole economy. In practice, general equilibrium treats economies as being always in equilibrium, albeit in a sequence of equilibria as driven by external changes in parameters. This view is sometimes defended on t…

GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will experience a real growth as of \%6. Now, the question is how long does it take for e…

We study a minimalist kinetic model for economies. A system of agents with local trading rules display emergent demand behaviour. We examine the resulting wealth distribution to look for non-thermal behaviour. We compare and contrast this model with other similar models.

Extends DeTEcT framework for token economies with dynamic and probabilistic parameters.

Paper analyzes virtual economies, reducing volatility and inflation.

Most of the analytical techniques used in the business cycle synchronisation literature rely upon the estimation of an empirical correlation matrix of time series data of macroeconomic aggregates, real GDP usually being the key variable. But the small number of available observations and small number of economies mean …

This paper provides a coopetitive model for a global green economy, taking into account the environmental sustainability. In particular, we propose a differentiable coopetitive game G (in the sense recently introduced by D. Carf`ı) to represent a global green economy interaction, among a country c and the rest of the w…