In this editorial guide for the special issue on econophysics, we give a unique review of this young but quickly growing discipline. A suggestive taxonomy of the development is proposed by making a distinction between classical econophysics and modern econophysics. For each of these two stages of development, we identi…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “economic stages”
Structural Sievesecon.EM
The paper uses deep neural networks to estimate economic models without separability restrictions.
problem Estimating economic models with complex interaction effects and non-separable restrictions.
method Uses deep neural networks as a nonparametric sieve to approximate regression functions from nonlinear latent variable models.
result Economic shape, sparsity, or separability restrictions are imposed more straightforwardly when a flexible latent variable model is used.
Study improves bankruptcy prediction models for imbalanced data and economic stages.
problem Class imbalance and economic fluctuations in credit risk analytics.
method Applied 8 BPMs on a new public dataset with resampling and AI techniques.
result Models perform differently during economic changes.
We study association between macroeconomic news and stock market returns using the statistical theory of copulas, and a new comprehensive measure of news based on the indexing of news wires. We find the impact of economic news on equity returns to be nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, controlling for economic con…
The algebra of transactions as fundamental measurements is constructed on the basis of the analysis of their properties and represents an expansion of the Boolean algebra. The notion of the generalized economic measurements of the economic quantity and quality of objects of transactions is introduced. It has been shown…
This work is attached to the BRICS 2013 competition. We propose a two-stage model for dealing with the temporal degradation of credit scoring models. This methodology produced motivating results in a 1-year horizon. We anticipate that it can be extended to other applications of risk assessment with great success. Futur…
The Unified Growth Theory is a puzzling collection of myths based on illusions created by hyperbolic distributions. Some of these myths are discussed. The examination of data shows that the three stages of growth (Malthusian Regime, Post-Malthusian Regime and Modern Growth Regime) did not exist and that Industrial Revo…
Financial heat machinecond-mat.other
We consider dynamics of financial markets as dynamics of expectations and discuss such a dynamics from the point of view of phenomenological thermodynamics. We describe a financial Carnot cycle and the financial analogue of a heat machine. We see, that while in physics a perpetuum mobile is absolutely impossible, in ec…
We review two strands of conceptual approaches to the formal representation of a decision maker's non-knowledge at the initial stage of a static one-person, one-shot decision problem in economic theory. One focuses on representations of non-knowledge in terms of probability measures over sets of mutually exclusive and …
Innovation is among the key factors driving a country's economic and social growth. But what are the factors that make a country innovative? How do they differ across different parts of the world and different stages of development? In this work done in collaboration with the World Economic Forum (WEF), we analyze the …
Survey analyzes economic research on cryptocurrencies using hybrid methods.
problem Lack of comprehensive literature review in cryptocurrencies economic research.
method Dual analysis combining bibliometric and close literature review.
result Updated state of cryptocurrency economic research literature.
Micro-Macro Relation of Production - The Double Scaling Law for Statistical Physics of Economy -q-fin.GN
We show that an economic system populated by multiple agents generates an equilibrium distribution in the form of multiple scaling laws of conditional PDFs, which are sufficient for characterizing the probability distribution. The existence of the double scaling law is demonstrated empirically for the sales and the lab…
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
problem Challenges in discovering robust lead-lag relationships in prediction markets due to spurious correlations.
method Two-stage approach: statistical Granger causality followed by LLM semantic re-ranking.
result LLM-based method outperforms statistical baseline, increasing win rate and reducing average loss magnitude.
Volatility forecasting and return prediction in high-frequency Chinese equity markets.
problem Improving statistical forecasting performance and economic strategy outcomes in equity markets.
method Developing a sequential two-stage framework combining realized volatility modeling and XGBoost return prediction.
result Regime-aware volatility forecasting outperforms baseline models.
Cost objective PLM and CEphysics.gen-ph
Concurrent engineering taking into account product life-cycle factors seems to be one of the industrial challenges of the next years. Cost estimation and management are two main strategic tasks that imply the possibility of managing costs at the earliest stages of product development. This is why it is indispensable to…
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
Improved financial network predictability using LLM for edge filtering.
problem Spurious edges in financial networks from textual similarity.
method Two-stage framework: sparse candidate graph + LLM edge classification.
result LLM-based edge filtering improves Sharpe ratio and reduces drawdown.
Algorithmic decision making process now affects many aspects of our lives. Standard tools for machine learning, such as classification and regression, are subject to the bias in data, and thus direct application of such off-the-shelf tools could lead to a specific group being unfairly discriminated. Removing sensitive …
Machine learning models learn what we teach them to learn. Machine learning is at the heart of recommender systems. If a machine learning model is trained on biased data, the resulting recommender system may reflect the biases in its recommendations. Biases arise at different stages in a recommender system, from existi…
New ARIMA framework improves forecast accuracy for economic and financial time series.
problem Improving forecast accuracy for nonlinear dynamics in time series data.
method Projection-based ARIMA framework using Galerkin basis expansions.
result Galerkin-SARIMA matches or improves forecast accuracy compared to classical ARIMA/SARIMA.
Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.
problem Understanding how stock market volatility is influenced by economic demand changes.
method Divided industries into demand-oriented groups and analyzed spillover networks.
result Spillover effects from demand-oriented sectors to consumption-oriented sectors increased during the outbreak.
The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This indicates all countries can be divided into three stages accordingly. First, the poor co…
In recent years, the economic policy of privatization, which is defined as the transfer of property or responsibility from public sector to private sector, is one of the global phenomenon that increases use of markets to allocate resources. One important motivation for privatization is to help develop factor and produc…
Retirement gratuity is the money companies typically pay their employees at the end of their contracts or at the time of leaving the company. It is a defined benefit plan and is often given as an alternative to a pension plan. In Botswana, there is now a new pattern whereby companies give their employees the option to …
Machine learning has evolved into an enabling technology for a wide range of highly successful applications. The potential for this success to continue and accelerate has placed machine learning (ML) at the top of research, economic and political agendas. Such unprecedented interest is fuelled by a vision of ML applica…
Game theory helps analyze ESOs/EBIs in production and service sectors.
problem Economic incentives affect traditional production/service functions and create intangible capital.
method Uses game theory to analyze interactions in ESO/EBI transactions.
result No perfect Nash Equilibria for two-stage games involving many participants.
Predicts asset return distributions using LSTM and quantile regression.
problem Predicting complex asset return distributions.
method Two-stage approach: quantile prediction using asset-specific features, market data adjustment.
result Significantly outperforms existing models (98% improvement over baseline).
Research activities of Kyoto Econophysics Group is reviewed. Strong emphasis has been placed on real economy. While the initial stage of research was a first high-definition data analysis on personal income, it soon progressed to firm dynamics, growth rate distribution and establishment of Pareto's law and Gibrat's law…
Research develops a DSS for stock selection and asset allocation using fundamental data.
problem Complex financial markets and limited use of fundamental data analysis.
method Data gathering, cleaning, and modeling of fundamental data; integration with macroeconomic conditions.
result Enhanced predictive model for mid- to long-term stock returns.
We inspect a possible clustering structure of the corruption perception among 134 countries. Using the average linkage clustering, we uncover a well-defined hierarchy in the relationships among countries. Four main clusters are identified and they suggest that countries worldwide can be quite well separated according t…
A predictive pan-European economic and production dispatch model for the energy transition in the electricity sectorphysics.soc-ph
The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European electricity production dominated by renewable sources, it is of paramount import…
P.W. Anderson proposed the concept of complexity in order to describe the emergence and growth of macroscopic collective patterns out of the simple interactions of many microscopic agents. In the physical sciences this paradigm was implemented systematically and confirmed repeatedly by successful confrontation with rea…
Strategic valuation of efficient and well-timed network investments under uncertain electricity market environment has become increasingly challenging, because there generally exist multiple interacting options in these investments, and failing to systematically consider these options can lead to decisions that underva…
Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall-Walras Disequilibriumq-fin.GN
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions pr…
Machine learning accurately diagnoses cancer from whole genome sequencing data.
problem Accurate cancer diagnosis at all stages.
method Novel MLAC (Machine Learning Against Cancer) method using next-gen RNA sequencing.
result Perfect precision, sensitivity, and specificity achieved for most tumor types.
Paper assesses financial potential for enterprise development.
problem Determining financial potential for enterprise development.
method Stages of financial potential assessment based on literature analysis.
result Proposes a mechanism for managing enterprise financial potential.
Current economic theories miss most of economic dynamics.
problem Accuracy of economic theories and policies depend on economic variables and processes.
method Identify and analyze overlooked economic variables and processes.
result Many economic variables and processes not accounted for in current theories.
New method narrows prediction intervals for individual treatment effects.
problem Insufficiently conservative prediction intervals for individual treatment effects.
method Conformal inference using conditional density estimates.
result Narrower prediction intervals compared to existing methods.
Quantifying the importance and power of individual nodes depending on their position in socio-economic networks constitutes a problem across a variety of applications. Examples include the reach of individuals in (online) social networks, the importance of individual banks or loans in financial networks, the relevance …
Improves classifier performance in multi-stage selection processes.
problem Difficulty in training classifiers in multi-stage selection processes due to varying sample sizes and information.
method Multi-Stage Transfer Learning (MSGTL) approach that uses knowledge from simpler classifiers trained in early stages to improve later stages.
result MSGTL outperforms other transfer learning methods in real-world selection process data.
A new conformal prediction framework for two-stage models identifies stage-wise uncertainty.
problem Limited coverage guarantees and lack of modular structure understanding in existing conformal prediction methods.
method Decomposes prediction residuals into stage-specific components, calibrates parameters using FWER control, and adapts to non-stationary settings.
result Improves coverage and identifies stage-wise error contributions compared to standard conformal methods.
Modeling business cycles via collective risk fluctuations in economic agents' risk space.
problem Understanding and predicting business cycles through economic agents' risk dynamics.
method Continuous numerical risk grades for economic agents, modeling collective economic variables and flows as functions of risk coordinates, deriving equations for their evolution.
result Business and credit cycles are explained as fluctuations of collective economic variables and their mean risks in the risk space of economic agents.
Deep learning helps identify promising startups.
problem Identifying successful startups amidst many.
method Literature review and synthesis of DL-based startup evaluation methods.
result Deep learning shows promise in startup success prediction.
To integrate strategic, tactical and operational decisions, the two-stage optimization has been widely used to guide dynamic decision making. In this paper, we study the two-stage stochastic programming for complex systems with unknown response estimated by simulation. We introduce the global-local metamodel assisted t…
'Ergodicity economics' is criticized as pseudoscience.
problem Flawed conceptual basis of mainstream economic theory.
method Claims 'ergodicity economics' is more parsimonious and clearer.
result Peters' approach has not produced falsifiable implications.
Dual-stage sEMG classification improves gesture recognition accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in hand gesture recognition from sEMG signals.
method Dual-stage classification approach: first stage groups similar activities, second stage classifies within groups.
result Dual-stage classification yields significantly higher accuracy than single-stage approach.
Measurement of Economic Growth, Development and Under Development: New Model and Applicationq-fin.GN
This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in comparison with another one. In particular, this model introduces an approach which indi…
Improves classifier performance in multi-stage processes with adversarial autoencoders and multi-task learning.
problem Challenges in training classifiers due to varying sample sizes and information content across stages.
method Combines adversarial autoencoders, multi-task learning, and semi-supervised learning to address underfitting and overfitting.
result Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods across different domains.