The dynamic network of relationships among corporations underlies cascading economic failures including the current economic crisis, and can be inferred from correlations in market value fluctuations. We analyze the time dependence of the network of correlations to reveal the changing relationships among the financial,…
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48 results for “economic sectors”
We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several countries, including China, Russia and USA, properly taking into account the influence …
The purpose of this study is to measure the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth and determine the share of each of the economic growth sources in the mining sector of Iran. The time period of this study is 1355-1385 of the Solar Hijri calendar (roughly overlaying with the time period of 1976-2006 of the Gregorian ca…
Study reveals risk transmission channels among Chinese sectors.
problem Understanding risk transmission within Chinese economic sectors.
method Volatility spillovers analysis using VAR model and rolling window approach.
result 17 sectors are risk transmitters and 11 are risk takers.
The Tech Decouplingq-fin.ST
Tech sector decouples from non-tech sectors post-2015, predicting economic growth.
problem Understanding the relationship between technology and economic growth.
method ARIMA modeling, stationarity tests, data wrangling, exploratory data analysis.
result The technology sector decouples from non-technology sectors post-2015 and predicts economic growth.
This paper investigates how economic shocks propagate and amplify through the input-output network connecting industrial sectors in developed economies. We study alternative models of diffusion on networks and we calibrate them using input-output data on real-world inter-sectoral dependencies for several European count…
Dissecting financial markets: Sectors and statescond-mat.stat-mech
By analyzing a large data set of daily returns with data clustering technique, we identify economic sectors as clusters of assets with a similar economic dynamics. The sector size distribution follows Zipf's law. Secondly, we find that patterns of daily market-wide economic activity cluster into classes that can be ide…
Economic sector identification in a set of stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange: a comparative analysisphysics.soc-ph
We review some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a set of stocks t…
In this paper, we perform a comparative segmentation and clustering analysis of the time series for the ten Dow Jones US economic sector indices between 14 February 2000 and 31 August 2008. From the temporal distributions of clustered segments, we find that the US economy took one and a half years to recover from the m…
The aim of this paper is to present a further contribution to the analysis of absolute convergence (and), associated with the neoclassical theory, and conditional, associated with endogenous growth theory, of the sectoral productivity at regional level. Presenting some empirical evidence of absolute convergence of prod…
Sector identification in a set of stock return time series traded at the London Stock Exchangecond-mat.dis-nn
We compare some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a portfolio of s…
Framework ranks sectors influenced by Indian Union Budgets.
problem Real-time analysis of budgetary impacts on sector-specific equity performance.
method Fine-tuned embeddings and language models for sector identification and performance ranking.
result 0.997 NDCG score in predicting sector ranks based on post-budget performances.
Labor productivity was studied at the microscopic level in terms of distributions based on individual firm financial data from Japan and the US. A power-law distribution in terms of firms and sector productivity was found in both countries' data. The labor productivities were not equal for nation and sectors, in contra…
Generative AI predicts economic activity from corporate transcripts.
problem Predicting economic activity using existing measures like surveys.
method Extracted managerial expectations from transcripts using generative AI.
result AI Economy Score predicts economic activity up to 10 quarters ahead.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the production function and examine the structure of production in the mining sector of Iran. Several studies have already been conducted in estimating production functions of various economic sectors; however, less attention has been paid to mining sectors. After examining the …
How technology affects growth or employment has long been debated. With a hiatus, the debate revived once again in the form of how Information and Communications Technology, as a form of new technology, exerts on productivity and employment. Information and Communications Technology perceived as General Purpose Technol…
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008, 2009. The construction of , based on Markov chain transi…
The professional services sector is at a turning point, with some industries showing growth opportunities.
problem Identifying growth opportunities in the professional services sector after decades of growth.
method A simple framework applied to the US economic context to diagnose growth opportunities.
result The professional services sector is expected to stall at a national level, but some industries still offer growth opportunities.
Inferring firm-level supply chain networks with realistic systemic risk from industry sector-level dataphysics.soc-ph
Researchers infer firm-level supply chain networks from sector-level data to assess systemic risk.
problem Estimating systemic risk in economic systems using firm-level data.
method Maximum-entropy algorithms applied to input-output tables and firm-level aggregate output data.
result The most realistic systemic risk content is retrieved by models incorporating disaggregated firm-specific inputs by sector.
Study shows how China's stock market reflects economic demand changes during COVID-19.
problem Understanding how stock market volatility is influenced by economic demand changes.
method Divided industries into demand-oriented groups and analyzed spillover networks.
result Spillover effects from demand-oriented sectors to consumption-oriented sectors increased during the outbreak.
Co-movements in financial fluctuations are anchored to economic fundamentals: A mesoscopic mappingq-fin.GN
We demonstrate the existence of an empirical linkage between the nominal financial networks and the underlying economic fundamentals across countries. We construct the nominal return correlation networks from daily data to encapsulate sector-level dynamics and figure the relative importance of the sectors in the nomina…
China's rapid economic growth resulted in serious air pollution, which caused substantial losses to economic development and residents' health. In particular, the road transport sector has been blamed to be one of the major emitters. During the past decades, fluctuation in the international oil prices has imposed signi…
Using the new data from the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities we construct the Google matrix of this directed network and perform its detailed analysis. The network contains 58 countries and 37 activity sectors for years 1995 and 2008. The construction of , based on Markov chain transitions, treats a…
Influence network in Chinese stock marketphysics.soc-ph
In a stock market, the price fluctuations are interactive, that is, one listed company can influence others. In this paper, we seek to study the influence relationships among listed companies by constructing a directed network on the basis of Chinese stock market. This influence network shows distinct topological prope…
We consider the sectoral composition of a country's GDP, i.e. the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors. Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterize the transfer of GDP shares between the sectors in the course of economic development. The model fits for the majority of coun…
Paper uses LLMs for sector allocation, showing better returns.
problem Automated trading sector allocation inefficiencies.
method Systematic analysis of macroeconomic data and sentiment.
result LLM-based sector allocation outperforms traditional strategies.
A Real Data-Driven Analytical Model to Predict Information Technology Sector Index Price of S&P 500q-fin.ST
Model predicts S&P 500 IT sector index prices with high accuracy.
problem Predicting S&P 500 IT sector index prices accurately.
method Non-linear model using financial and economic indicators.
result Predictive accuracy of 99.4% for S&P 500 IT sector index.
The sectoral synchronization observed for the Japanese business cycle in the Indices of Industrial Production data is an example of synchronization. The stability of this synchronization under a shock, e.g., fluctuation of supply or demand, is a matter of interest in physics and economics. We consider an economic syste…
Model predicts Mozambique bank failures, aiding risk management.
problem Lack of bankruptcy prediction model in Mozambique banking sector.
method Linear Discriminant Analysis method, using financial indicators.
result Model accurately predicted 84% of bank failures 1 year before Central Bank intervention.
We have analyzed the Indices of Industrial Production (Seasonal Adjustment Index) for a long period of 240 months (January 1988 to December 2007) to develop a deeper understanding of the economic shocks. The angular frequencies estimated using the Hilbert transformation, are almost identical for the 16 industrial secto…
Game theory helps analyze ESOs/EBIs in production and service sectors.
problem Economic incentives affect traditional production/service functions and create intangible capital.
method Uses game theory to analyze interactions in ESO/EBI transactions.
result No perfect Nash Equilibria for two-stage games involving many participants.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
Money as a Tensorq-fin.GN
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
problem Economic complexity and policy responsiveness.
method Tensor analysis of money dynamics.
result Enhanced economic policy design and resilience.
Market sectors play a key role in the efficient flow of capital through the modern Global economy. We analyze existing sectorization heuristics, and observe that the most popular - the GICS (which informs the S&P 500), and the NAICS (published by the U.S. Government) - are not entirely quantitatively driven, but rather…
The paper uses LSTM to predict stock prices and optimize portfolio weights.
problem Accurate prediction of stock prices and designing optimized portfolios.
method Built sector-wise portfolios and an LSTM model for stock price prediction.
result The LSTM model accurately predicts stock prices with high accuracy.
We discuss superstatistics theory of labour productivity. Productivity distribution across workers, firms and industrial sectors are studied empirically and found to obey power-distributions, in sharp contrast to the equilibrium theories of mainstream economics. The Pareto index is found to decrease with the level of a…
The paper models financial markets and real economy interactions using a large agent framework.
problem Understanding capital allocation and accumulation in financial markets and real economy interactions.
method Developed a field-formalism model to analyze interactions between financial markets and real economy with a large number of heterogeneous agents.
result The number of firms in each sector depends on the aggregate financial capital invested and expected long-term returns.
Improves stock market predictions on Election Day.
problem Predicting stock market volatility on Election Day.
method Combining large language models with specialized agents.
result EDSMF model improves S&P 500 prediction accuracy.
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector level. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctu…
The consideration of spatial effects at a regional level is becoming increasingly frequent and the work of Anselin (1988), among others, has contributed to this. This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker) in the NUTs III economic …
Microeconomic Structure determines Macroeconomic Dynamics. Aoki defeats the Representative Agentq-fin.GN
Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity of the mezo-economic …
The paper translates economic models into a field formalism to study capital accumulation and its fluctuations.
problem Understanding capital accumulation and its fluctuations in a complex economic system.
method Developed a field formalism to preserve interactions and microeconomic features, applying it to a microeconomic framework of investors and firms.
result Capital accumulation patterns can emerge at the macro-scale and affect neighboring sectors, leading to permanent fluctuations.
Complexity, economic science and possible economic benefits of climate change mitigation policyphysics.soc-ph
Conventional economic analysis of stringent climate change mitigation policy generally concludes various levels of economic slowdown as a result of substantial spending on low carbon technology. Equilibrium economics however could not explain or predict the current economic crisis, which is of financial nature. Meanwhi…
We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002--2003, 2004--2005, 2008--2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (…
Identifies key industrial sectors in S&P 500 states.
problem Understanding changing market conditions in financial markets.
method Clustering algorithm, XAI relevance scores, Bayesian change point analysis.
result Dominant sectors (energy and IT) determine market states.
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects in productivity (product per worker), at economic sectors level of the NUTs III of mainland Portugal, from 1995 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2005 (taking in count the data availability and the Portuguese and European context), c…
This study analyses, through cross-section estimation methods, the influence of spatial effects and human capital in the conditional productivity convergence (product per worker) in the economic sectors of NUTs III of mainland Portugal between 1995 and 2002. To analyse the data, Moran's I statistics is considered, and …
Bubble Necessity Theoremecon.TH
Bubbles are essential in certain economic models with high growth and low interest rates.
problem Asset price bubbles exceeding fundamental values.
method Developed the Bubble Necessity Theorem in economic models with specific growth and interest rate conditions.
result Bubbles are inevitable in certain economic scenarios with high growth and low interest rates.