Python tool assesses European agricultural production resilience.
problem Estimating resilience of European agricultural production systems.
method Python software to compute annual production resilience indicator.
result Demonstrates resilience of European agricultural production.
Bayesian model uses mobile data to assess business resilience after hurricanes.
problem Evaluating economic impact of extreme shocks on businesses.
method Bayesian structural time series model with mobile phone data.
result Estimates business resilience after hurricanes, revealing key characteristics.
This paper measures financial market resilience in China and identifies key uncertainties.
problem Measuring financial market resilience in China.
method Quantitative analysis of total financial market and sub-markets, Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness approach.
result Financial market resilience in China is event-driven and influenced by geopolitical risks, economic and trade policy uncertainty, and U.S.-China tensions.
Financial markets can be seen as complex systems that are constantly evolving and sensitive to external disturbance, such as systemic risks and economic instabilities. Analysis of resilient market performance, therefore, becomes useful for investors. From a systems perspective, this paper proposes a novel function-base…
Study reveals clusters of resilient and vulnerable Spanish agri-food firms post-Ukraine-Russia war.
problem Financial resilience of agri-food companies in Spain during the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
method Cluster analysis using centred log-ratios for compositional data of financial ratios.
result Increase in resilient firms by 2023, highlighting sectoral adaptation to economic challenges.
Money analyzed as a multidimensional tensor for better economic policy.
problem Economic complexity and policy responsiveness.
method Tensor analysis of money dynamics.
result Enhanced economic policy design and resilience.
Every production-recycling iteration accumulates an inevitable proportion of its matter-energy in the environment, lest the production process itself would be a system in perpetual motion, violating the second law of Thermodynamics. Such high-entropy matter depletes finite stocks of ecosystem services provided by the e…
Develops a framework to assess infrastructure reliability under natural and malicious events.
problem Assessing reliability and costs of infrastructure under various hazards.
method Coupling mechanical reliability analyses with economical reliability analyses using probabilistic considerations.
result Indicators of probable cost of failure for infrastructure, aiding safety investments.
We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking regulation, the so called Merton-Vasicek model. Economic agents are attracted to each ot…
Understanding cities is central to addressing major global challenges from climate and health to economic resilience. Although increasingly perceived as fundamental socio-economic units, the detailed fabric of urban economic activities is only now accessible to comprehensive analyses with the availability of large data…
When studying social, economic and biological systems, one has often access to only limited information about the structure of the underlying networks. An example of paramount importance is provided by financial systems: information on the interconnections between financial institutions is privacy-protected, dramatical…
SOC theory explains financial volatility and economic shocks.
problem Excess volatility and small shocks causing large disruptions.
method Explains system behavior at critical point with fat-tailed fluctuations.
result SOC theory offers a plausible solution to financial market volatility.
Study shows how firms adapt to systemic risk during crises, revealing key players and trade volume predictors.
problem Understanding systemic risk in local production networks during crises.
method Analyzing Hungarian production network dynamics from 2015 to 2022 using a null model and empirical data.
result Firms' adaptive behavior during crises leads to more resilient economies, with trade volume being a significant predictor.
Model uses Navier-Stokes equations to assess liquidity and systemic risk.
problem Traditional models fail to capture real market fluctuations and extreme events.
method Develops and validates a mathematical model based on Navier-Stokes equations, incorporating 13 macroeconomic and financial parameters.
result Model effectively describes liquidity dynamics, systemic risk, and extreme scenarios.
Paper introduces a new index to measure financial and workplace resilience of firms.
problem Corporate resilience and its types in turbulent markets.
method Quantitative analysis of earnings expectations and implied discount rates.
result Evidence of workplace resilience amplification by financial status in the COVID-19 era.
This paper presents the first topological analysis of the economic structure of an entire country based on payments data obtained from Swedbank. This data set is exclusive in its kind because around 80% of Estonia's bank transactions are done through Swedbank, hence, the economic structure of the country can be reconst…
We provide a methodology, resilient feature engineering, for creating adversarially resilient classifiers. According to existing work, adversarial attacks identify weakly correlated or non-predictive features learned by the classifier during training and design the adversarial noise to utilize these features. Therefore…
Measures financial resilience using BSDEs and their properties.
problem Measuring financial resilience in dynamic risk environments.
method Developed stochastic calculus for BSDEs with jumps, revealing resilience rate as expectation of generator.
result Resilience rate can be represented as expectation of BSDE generator, revealing properties of dynamic risk measures.
The resilience of low-degree Rademacher chaos is studied, providing probabilistic lower bounds.
problem Understanding how much a Rademacher chaos can withstand adversarial sign-flips without significant probability changes.
method Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree.
result Probabilistic lower-bound guarantees for the resilience of Rademacher chaos of arbitrary degree, especially meaningful for constant degree.
We address a fundamental problem that is systematically encountered when modeling complex systems: the limitedness of the information available. In the case of economic and financial networks, privacy issues severely limit the information that can be accessed and, as a consequence, the possibility of correctly estimati…
New model shows negative resilience can improve trading efficiency.
problem Optimal trade execution in limit order books with negative resilience.
method Stochastic order book model with negative resilience.
result Negative resilience can lead to more efficient trading.
The paper highlights AI brittleness and the need for robust testing out-of-distribution performance.
problem The brittleness of AI systems, especially Deep Neural Networks, limits their reliability and certification.
method Analysis of AI brittleness and OOD performance, emphasizing the need for resilience and improved evaluation methods.
result AI systems are more failure-prone than certified in critical systems, and OOD performance falls off gradually.
Regulating crypto and DeFi for inclusive economic advancement.
problem Innovative financial systems pose challenges to traditional regulatory frameworks.
method Formulating regulatory structures that balance innovation and consumer protection.
result Regulatory frameworks are essential for leveraging crypto and DeFi for inclusive economic growth.
Proposes resilience metrics for large blackout costs with logarithmic resilience.
problem Large variations in blackout costs make estimating risk impractical.
method Uses mean of log of large blackout costs, tail slope index, and frequency.
result Solves problems of heavy tail and large variations in blackout costs.
This study shows ESG ratings reduce equity crash risk during market downturns.
problem Decoupling of alpha from tail risk resilience in traditional models.
method Double Machine Learning for structural deconfounding, state-dependent analysis.
result High ESG ratings reduce crash incidence during systemic drawdowns.
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
Stocks of more resilient firms outperformed during the pandemic, reflecting disaster risk.
problem The impact of social distancing on firms' operations and stock performance.
method Cross-sectional analysis of firms' resilience and stock performance, controlling for risk factors.
result Stocks of more resilient firms are expected to yield significantly lower returns than less resilient ones, reflecting disaster risk.
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
problem Reducing household bankruptcy risk through effective financial planning.
method Mathematical modeling, game theory, behavioral finance, and technological analysis.
result The 1/3 Financial Rule emerges as a robust solution for supporting household financial stability.
ResiliNet improves distributed neural network inference resilience.
problem Physical node failures in distributed neural networks cause performance drops.
method Skip hyperconnection and failout technique.
result ResiliNet provides inference resiliency for distributed neural networks.
Sandpile Economics explains how economies can be prone to large crises from small shocks.
problem Capitalist economies' recurrent crises disproportionate to shocks.
method Formal framework interpreting instability as geometric fragility of production networks.
result Curvature of production networks predicts medium-run output dynamics and resilience.
New method quantifies resilience of electric distribution systems from historical data.
problem Large blackouts caused by extreme winds have significant costs and impacts.
method Formulate large event risk from utility outage data, quantify resilience improvements through investments.
result Investments in wind hardening and faster restoration can reduce the probability of large cost events.
The paper introduces a US crime index to assess financial losses from property and cyber crimes.
problem Lack of indices evaluating crime's financial impact on investments.
method Developed an index-based insurance portfolio using FBI financial losses data.
result Real estate, ransomware, and government impersonation are major risk contributors.
New framework for resilient bi-criteria optimization under noisy feedback.
problem Bi-criteria combinatorial optimization with noisy function evaluations.
method Introducing (α,β,δ,extttN)-resilience and developing a black-box framework. result Achieves sublinear regret and constraint violation for bi-criteria bandit problems.
Model for open, decentralized network with task load balancing.
problem Complex computational tasks in open, decentralized networks.
method Incentive-based load balancing using economic mechanisms.
result Optimized resource allocation and enhanced system resilience.
Paper tackles Byzantine resilience in distributed multi-task learning.
problem Resilience of distributed algorithms in the presence of Byzantine agents.
method Online weight assignment rule based on accumulated loss and filtering.
result Aggregation with proposed weight assignment rule improves expected regret.
This paper uses robust optimization to analyze supply chain resilience.
problem Supply chain resilience analysis of multi-modal logistics networks.
method Robust optimization with budget-of-uncertainty.
result Interactive effects of network size, disruption scale, and degree on resilience.
Develops a framework to assess systemic risk in the economy using bank-firm network data.
problem Measuring systemic risk in the economy using multilayer network data.
method Unified framework combining techniques to reconstruct multilayer economy structure from bank and firm balance sheets, and dynamics of shock propagation.
result Identifies systemically important firms and banks, and assesses systemic risk determinants.
Assessing the stability of economic systems is a fundamental research focus in economics, that has become increasingly interdisciplinary in the currently troubled economic situation. In particular, much attention has been devoted to the interbank lending market as an important diffusion channel for financial distress d…
Improved deep neural network generalization through noise resilience.
problem Understanding and predicting generalization error of deep neural networks.
method Noise resilience measures to predict generalization error.
result Secured 5th position in the PGDL competition at NeurIPS 2020.
CyBeR-0 optimizes federated learning with Byzantine resilience and reduced communication costs.
problem Byzantine attacks and communication inefficiency in federated learning.
method Transformed robust aggregation for zero-order optimization under client heterogeneity.
result CyBeR-0 achieves stable performance with minimal communication costs and reduced memory usage.
P.W. Anderson proposed the concept of complexity in order to describe the emergence and growth of macroscopic collective patterns out of the simple interactions of many microscopic agents. In the physical sciences this paradigm was implemented systematically and confirmed repeatedly by successful confrontation with rea…
Firms' collaboration networks can decline but remain resilient.
problem Resilience of firms' collaboration networks during decline.
method Analysis of 21,500 R&D collaborations over 25 years, simulating drop-out cascades.
result Firms' collaboration networks can adapt to mitigate decline and recover.
This paper investigates the resilience and robustness of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) policies to adversarial perturbations in the state space. We first present an approach for the disentanglement of vulnerabilities caused by representation learning of DRL agents from those that stem from the sensitivity of the DR…
We present a large-scale study of commonality in liquidity and resilience across assets in an ultra high-frequency (millisecond-timestamped) Limit Order Book (LOB) dataset from a pan-European electronic equity trading facility. We first show that extant work in quantifying liquidity commonality through the degree of ex…
Model predicts time evolution of supply chain networks under varying costs.
problem Regulating downstream relationships for sustainable SMEs.
method Time varying SCN model based on Lagrangian mechanics, incorporating EDES cost kernels.
result Model predicts bankruptcy and break-even states under different cost scenarios.
New framework boosts neural network performance and resilience.
problem Susceptibility of compact neural network implementations to system disturbances.
method Realistic crossbar simulations and Mosaics framework to re-use synaptic connections.
result Compact neural networks are noise-immune and perform well under disturbances.
We show that wealth processes in the block-shaped order book model of Obizhaeva/Wang converge to their counterparts in the reduced-form model proposed by Almgren/Chriss, as the resilience of the order book tends to infinity. As an application of this limit theorem, we explain how to reduce portfolio choice in highly-re…
Outlier detection is a fundamental task in data mining and has many applications including detecting errors in databases. While there has been extensive prior work on methods for outlier detection, modern datasets often have sizes that are beyond the ability of commonly used methods to process the data within a reasona…